The long-contested idea of diverting Siberian rivers to Central Asia has re-emerged after the Russian Academy of Sciences announced on November 14 that it is studying a new version of the project. The updated proposal revives elements of a Soviet-era plan from the 1970s and 1980s that aimed to channel water from the Ob River basin to arid regions of Central Asia. This time, however, the focus is on a closed pipeline system, rather than open canals, to transport large volumes of water to countries facing acute shortages, particularly Uzbekistan, according to Fergana News.

Discussions within the Russian Academy had reportedly already begun prior to the announcement. Researchers are now calling on Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education to include a full study of the project in its state research plan. They argue that Central Asia is entering a critical phase of water scarcity that demands long-term strategic solutions.

The renewed interest comes amid escalating water stress across the region. Rapid population growth, retreating glaciers, and intensifying irrigation demands have pushed existing water systems to their limits. While some view the proposed pipeline as a potential lifeline for stabilizing regional water supplies, environmental concerns remain central to the debate, echoing the very reasons the original project was shelved.

A Long History of Controversy

The idea of redirecting northern rivers is not new. It was first proposed in the 19th century by Ukrainian-born engineer Yakov Demchenko, who envisioned transferring water from the Ob and Irtysh rivers to replenish the shrinking Aral Sea.

In the Soviet period, the concept gained political traction. By the late 1960s, it had entered official planning discussions, prompting detailed studies by the Academy of Sciences, the State Planning Committee, and the Ministry of Water Resources. In 1970, the project was formally designated a state priority, with plans for transferring up to 25 cubic kilometers of water annually.

Extensive technical documentation was produced, and construction began on supporting infrastructure, including the Irtysh-Karaganda canal. Designs for the main channel envisioned a span of more than 2,500 kilometers and a capacity exceeding 1,000 cubic meters per second. However, by 1986, the project was halted due to mounting economic pressures, scientific opposition, and growing awareness of potential environmental risks.

Experts warned of large-scale flooding, disruptions to groundwater, damage to fish stocks, displacement of Indigenous communities, and unpredictable impacts on permafrost and regional climate systems.

Renewed Debate in a Region Under Stress

Though shelved in the late Soviet era, the project has resurfaced multiple times since the collapse of the USSR. Former Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov advocated for its revival in 2002, and Russian and Kazakh presidents discussed it publicly in 2010. Yet concerns about environmental and geopolitical ramifications have consistently stalled progress.

Meanwhile, the water crisis in Central Asia has only deepened. Glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains which feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers have shrunk by more than 25% in recent decades. The region’s population has grown to approximately 80 million, nearly 50% higher than in the early 1990s and continues to climb.

Despite this, water management remains inefficient. Agriculture and industry remain heavily dependent on outdated irrigation systems that waste up to half of the water they use annually. Efforts to modernize have been slow, and persistent disputes among Central Asian states over water sharing further hinder cooperation.

Some rivers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have already lost between 40% and 70% of their flow. In many downstream areas, the remaining water is too saline for drinking or agriculture. Roughly 13% of the region’s population currently lacks access to safe drinking water.

New Challenges from Afghanistan

The pressure is being compounded by developments in Afghanistan. The Taliban administration is constructing the 285-kilometer Qosh Tepa canal to divert water from the Amu Darya. Once completed, the canal could reroute up to 10 cubic kilometers of water per year potentially reducing flow to already stressed downstream users in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

As the crisis worsens, proponents of the Siberian water transfer see the revived project as a possible strategic solution. However, critics warn that the same environmental and political pitfalls that derailed earlier attempts remain unresolved and may have only intensified in the decades since.