Page 9 – The Times Of Central Asia

13 Apr 2026

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IMF Warns of Risks for Rapidly Growing Kyrgyz Economy

April 13, 2026
By Sergey Kwan

Kyrgyzstan continues to record strong economic growth and rising per capita income. At the same time, elevated inflation above the National Bank’s 5%-7% target range, rapid credit expansion, strong wage growth, and high liquidity point to signs of economic overheating, requiring timely macroeconomic policy adjustments. These are the key points of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) statement following consultations with Kyrgyz authorities in Bishkek between March 18 and April 1.

The IMF noted that after recording fiscal surpluses between 2023 and 2025, the overall fiscal balance is projected to shift into deficit in 2026, reflecting higher public-sector wages and increased capital spending.

The mission also emphasized that monetary policy should remain focused on bringing inflation back within the National Bank’s target range. Strengthening the central bank’s independence and governance remains critical to safeguarding price stability. Repeated transfers of National Bank profits to the state budget, while capital remains below statutory thresholds, risk undermining institutional credibility and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The IMF urged the authorities to uphold the provisions of the constitutional law governing the National Bank and to suspend regular profit transfers until capital is adequately restored.

According to the IMF, Kyrgyzstan’s banking sector is stable, well capitalized, and liquid. However, nonperforming loans remain elevated, and rapid credit growth could increase vulnerabilities if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

The mission stressed that structural reforms remain essential to support sustainable and inclusive growth. These should focus on strengthening governance, reducing the state’s role in the economy, and fostering private-sector-led development. Key priorities include reforming state-owned enterprises, improving the business environment and competition, strengthening the rule of law and anti-corruption efforts, and addressing informality and labor market rigidities.

According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 11.1% in 2025, while inflation reached 9.4%.

The government aims to sustain economic growth under the National Development Program through 2030, targeting average annual GDP growth of 8%, total GDP of at least $30 billion, and GDP per capita of $4,500.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also forecasts continued strong growth, projecting GDP expansion of 8.9% in 2026 and 8.4% in 2027, following 11.1% growth in 2025. Growth is expected to moderate as construction and trade normalize, although domestic demand will remain the main driver, supported by resilient remittance inflows and sustained investment under the National Development Program.

ADB projects inflation to rise to 10.3% in 2026 before easing to 8.5% in 2027, driven by strong domestic demand and planned increases in electricity and heating tariffs.

Concerns about overheating are not new. A July 2025 meeting at the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce highlighted structural imbalances, including a widening gap between income growth and labor productivity, rising inflation, labor shortages, increased public spending, and rapid growth in consumer lending.

Economist Azamat Akeneev told 24.kg that sustainable growth is not possible without improvements in labor productivity and exports. “If the economy grows through consumption and government spending rather than competitiveness and expansion into foreign markets, sooner or later an adjustment phase will follow,” he said, warning that overheating could lead to recession, currency depreciation, and social instability.

These concerns come amid a deterioration in Kyrgyzstan’s external trade performance. According to the National Statistical Committee, exports fell by 20.3% in January 2026, while imports rose by 6.1%. The trend continued throughout 2025, when exports declined by 44.5% and imports increased by 3.9%. Total foreign trade turnover reached $15.8 billion, down 10.2% compared to 2024.

Arsen Imankulov, another expert cited by 24.kg, said that a moderate economic slowdown, or “cooling,” should not be seen as a setback but rather as a strategic adjustment.

13 Apr 2026

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The Astana-Tashkent Tandem: A Developing Partnership Based on Mutual Interest

April 13, 2026
By Andrei Matveev

On April 11, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid a working visit to Uzbekistan, where he was hosted in Bukhara by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The historic city provided the setting for discussions that increasingly reflect a broader regional agenda. A second informal meeting in just over a year suggests this format may be gaining weight in relations between Central Asia’s two largest economies.

“The informal format is of strategic importance, since such meetings make it possible to discuss sensitive issues without protocol constraints, build personal trust between leaders, which plays a key role in Central Asia, and align positions ahead of official negotiations,” said Uzbek political analyst Ravshan Nazarov. He added that such meetings reflect a growing intra-regional focus, reduced dependence on external actors, and the strengthening of the “Tashkent-Astana” tandem.

During the talks, Tokayev emphasized the importance of the visit “given the current unstable geopolitical situation.”

The two sides reviewed bilateral cooperation across multiple sectors. Trade turnover reached $5 billion last year, with both countries aiming to double this figure to $10 billion in the near term. Joint projects are already underway in automotive manufacturing, infrastructure, logistics, electrical engineering, and construction materials. The discussion also extended to other sectors, including energy and industrial cooperation.

Both Presidents stressed the need to modernize border infrastructure, eliminate bottlenecks, and develop efficient transport corridors to external markets. They also discussed accelerating major regional projects, including the construction of the Kambarata hydropower plant and advancing “green” energy exports.

Tokayev also voiced his support for Uzbekistan’s “Clean Air” initiative, highlighting environmental challenges in Almaty.

“I share your concern regarding the environmental condition of Tashkent. We have a very difficult situation in Almaty. Unfortunately, Almaty has entered the list of the most polluted major cities in the world, and urgent measures must be taken. Therefore, we could propose the joint implementation of the ‘Clean Air’ initiative under presidential patronage,” Tokayev said.

The reference to Almaty also recalled the setting of the previous informal meeting on March 29, 2025. During that visit, Mirziyoyev toured the Medeu high-mountain sports complex and visited the National Museum of Arts, where an exhibition featuring works by Abilkhan Kasteev and Ural Tansykbayev was organized.

That visit drew attention to the city’s preparedness for high-level events. Tokayev subsequently instructed then-Mayor of Almaty, Yerbolat Dossayev, to improve conditions in the city and report regularly on progress. In May 2025, Dossayev was dismissed as mayor and reassigned to the Presidential Administration. He was later also relieved of that post.

In contrast, the Bukhara program was more extensive. Mirziyoyev presented industrial and technological projects, including a cotton-textile cluster, an artificial intelligence hackathon, and several cultural landmarks, including the mausoleum of Bahauddin Naqshbandi, founder of the Naqshbandi Sufi order.

The discussions themselves also appeared more substantive, covering areas such as rare earth metals, transport, energy, and information technology.

“When discussions include not only trade but also rare earths, transport, energy, and IT, it indicates a shift toward strategic thinking. The focus is no longer just on trade turnover, but on jointly entering a more complex economy of the future,” said Azizjon Akramov, an expert in investment project development.

Some analysts suggest that closer Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan cooperation could carry broader geopolitical implications.

“It can be assumed that strengthening cooperation between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in these areas may also align with U.S. interests, as Washington has an interest in deeper regional cooperation in strategic sectors. A partnership between the two countries could potentially compete with Russia and China,” said Uzbek historian and independent researcher Bakhtiyor Alimdjanov.

Overall, the Astana-Tashkent tandem appears to be consolidating. For now, bilateral relations remain stable, with both leaders seeking to institutionalize cooperation across key sectors. How this dynamic will evolve beyond the current leadership remains uncertain, but the present trajectory points toward deeper regional coordination.

13 Apr 2026

Central Asia, Home, Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan Home, Business & Economy, Uzbekistan Business & Economy

Pakistan Sends First Transit Shipment to Uzbekistan via Iran Corridor

April 13, 2026
By Sadokat Jalolova

Pakistan has launched trade operations under the Pakistan-Iran transit corridor, dispatching its first export consignment to Tashkent in Uzbekistan via Iran, Pakistan Today reported, citing customs officials.

According to the report, the inaugural shipment consisted of frozen meat transported in refrigerated trucks. The cargo departed from Pakistan and is being routed through Gwadar and Iranian territory before reaching Central Asia. Officials say the corridor is intended to facilitate overland trade and provide an alternative to maritime routes.

Sanaullah Abro, Director General of Transit Trade Customs, said the corridor has been operationalized under the TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers) system, which enables goods to move across multiple countries with minimal customs checks. He added that key border crossing points including Taftan, Rimdan, Sost, and Gwadar, have been activated for TIR transit, with procedures streamlined to support faster cargo movement.

At a launch ceremony, Abro and Director of Transit Muhammad Rashid formally flagged off the first consignment. Officials described the initiative as part of broader efforts to strengthen Pakistan’s trade connectivity with Central Asia and reduce logistics costs.

Sources cited by Pakistan Today said the new route offers a more economical option for exporters and is expected to shorten transit times while easing pressure on maritime trade routes. The corridor may also increase traffic through Pakistan’s ports and support export growth.

The development comes as Pakistan seeks to expand its economic engagement with Central Asia, including Uzbekistan. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, bilateral trade between the two countries reached nearly $500 million last year, with around 230 companies with Pakistani capital currently operating in Uzbekistan. Cooperation spans sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and chemicals.

Both sides have agreed to work toward increasing trade turnover to $2 billion in the near term. Measures under discussion include expanding the list of goods covered by the Preferential Trade Agreement, easing phytosanitary requirements, and strengthening trade infrastructure, including Uzbekistan’s trade houses in Lahore and Karachi.

13 Apr 2026

Business & Economy, Turkmenistan, Turkmenistan Business & Economy

Turkmenistan Fuel Duties Force Truck Drivers to Dump Diesel

April 13, 2026
By Vagit Ismailov

Since early April, Turkmenistan has imposed restrictions limiting the amount of fuel in the tanks of trucks leaving the country to no more than 300 liters. Any excess fuel may be retained only upon payment of a duty of $5.72 per liter, about 20 times higher than the official domestic price. Faced with these costs, many drivers have opted to dispose of surplus diesel instead.

On April 5, turkmen.news posted a video on its Telegram channel showing foreign truck drivers dumping large quantities of diesel directly onto the ground. According to the outlet, the practice is a response to the country’s fuel regulations.

Foreign truck drivers are required to pay the duty in U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, rather than in the local currency. As a result, each additional liter effectively costs about $5.70. By comparison, diesel prices in Hong Kong, often cited among the highest globally, are nearly $2 lower per liter. In Kazakhstan, diesel costs approximately $0.70 per liter, while in Uzbekistan it is around $1. Within Turkmenistan, domestic fuel prices remain heavily subsidized at roughly $0.05 per liter.

Only citizens of Turkmenistan are permitted to pay the duty in the national currency, the Turkmen manat. All others must pay in dollars, which are then converted into manats at the official exchange rate of 3.5 manats per dollar. Experienced drivers transiting Turkmenistan typically obtain manats in advance for local expenses. In this case, however, the requirement to pay in foreign currency appears to serve an additional fiscal purpose.

As a result, rather than preventing fuel shortages, the policy has caused environmental damage, with significant quantities of diesel dumped onto the soil. Turkmenistan drivers are also reported to engage in similar practices, particularly those traveling to or through Kazakhstan, where refueling is cheaper than paying approximately $1 per excess liter at home.

The impact is not limited to environmental concerns. Freight carriers operating within Turkmenistan have already begun increasing logistics prices, reflecting the added costs associated with the new regulations.

13 Apr 2026

Central Asia, Turkmenistan Home, Home, Turkmenistan Life & Culture, Turkmenistan, International Affairs

Russia Signals Readiness to Train Turkmen Cosmonaut

April 13, 2026
By Sadokat Jalolova

Russia is prepared to support the training of a Turkmen cosmonaut if Turkmenistan expresses interest, Russian Ambassador Ivan Volynkin said on April 10 in Ashgabat.

The statement was made during a ceremony marking the 65th anniversary of the first human spaceflight, during which participants laid flowers at a bust of Yuri Gagarin. The remarks were reported by the Russian Embassy’s official Telegram channel.

Volynkin highlighted the achievements of Oleg Kononenko, a native of Turkmenabat in Turkmenistan, who holds the record for the longest cumulative time spent in orbit, exceeding 1,100 days. He currently heads the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center.

According to the ambassador, cooperation between Russia and Turkmenistan in the space sector holds significant potential. He said Moscow is ready to collaborate with Ashgabat on satellite production and launches, navigation technologies, and joint scientific research.

The statement comes amid intensifying global competition in space, as more countries seek to expand their presence in orbit. Previous reporting has noted that major powers, including the United States, China, Russia, and European countries, are pursuing differing space strategies, while middle-income states increasingly view space as a means of economic development and technological advancement.

In Central Asia, this trend is most evident in Kazakhstan, which is developing its satellite capabilities while continuing to utilize infrastructure such as the Baikonur Cosmodrome.

13 Apr 2026

Central Asia, Environment, Kazakhstan Environment, Home, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Home

A Technology to Reduce Harmful Industrial Emissions Developed in Kazakhstan

April 13, 2026
By Dmitry Pokidaev

Scientists at Aktobe Regional University have developed a new gas purification technology capable of reducing dust and harmful substances in industrial emissions by dozens of times, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Kazakhstan reported.

The development is intended for use in the metallurgical, energy, and food industries, as well as in the production of construction materials. The technology is based on an improved regeneration system for bag filters, enabling the cleaning of filter elements from accumulated dust without the need for replacement. This approach helps preserve the filter material, improves purification efficiency, and extends the service life of equipment, contributing to more stable production processes.

The technology is currently being implemented at several industrial facilities in the cities of Aktobe, Aksu, and Ekibastuz. At the Aktobe Ferroalloy Plant, for example, use of the system has reduced the concentration of harmful components in emissions by approximately 40 times.

According to the ministry, similar solutions are already in use at the Aksu Ferroalloy Plant and at enterprises operated by JSC TNK Kazchrome, helping to reduce environmental impact and ensure compliance with environmental regulations.

The ministry emphasized the importance of the development in terms of import substitution, noting that such gas purification systems were previously supplied mainly from abroad. The technology also aligns with the objectives of the National Carbon Quota Allocation Plan, which aims to reduce industrial emissions and support the country’s climate goals.

The equipment is manufactured in Karaganda as part of scientific and technical cooperation between the university and KazEnergoMashEkologia. The results of pilot testing have been registered with the National Center for State Scientific and Technical Expertise, allowing the project to participate in a competition for the commercialization of scientific developments.

The project received a state grant of $742,000, while the industrial partner invested an additional $260,000. The total cost of the developed and implemented gas purification equipment to date is approximately $805,000.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, scientists at Satbayev University in Almaty are also working on a compact device capable of converting mechanical vibrations from the environment into electrical energy.