Tajikistan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asia’s Green Energy Dream: Too Big to Achieve?

Although most Central Asian nations are heavily dependent on fossil fuel production and exports, they are aiming to significantly increase the use of renewable energy, hoping to eventually become crucial suppliers of so-called green electricity to Europe. Achieving such an ambitious goal will be easier said than done, given that developing the green energy sector in the region requires massive investment. What Central Asian states – struggling to attract long-term private capital into clean energy projects – need is financing for projects that modernize power networks, improve grid stability, and enable cross-border electricity flows. These upgrades are essential for large-scale renewable energy deployment and regional trade in power. Most actors in Central Asia seem to have taken major steps in this direction. In November 2024, at the COP29 climate conference held in Baku, Kazakhstan signed several deals worth nearly $3.7 billion with international companies and development institutions to support green energy projects. Neighboring Uzbekistan, according to reports, has attracted more than €22 billion ($23.9) in foreign investment in renewable energy, while Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan – which is aiming to generate all its electricity from green energy sources by 2032 – have developed strategies to help increase their renewable potential. But to turn their goals into reality, all these nations will need funding – whether from oil-rich Middle Eastern countries, China, the European Union, or various international financial institutions. Presently, the development of the Caspian Green Energy Corridor – which aims to supply green electricity from Central Asia to Azerbaijan and further to Europe – remains the region’s most ambitious project. According to Yevgeniy Zhukov, the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) Director General for Central and West Asia, this initiative is a strategic priority for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan. “While the prospect of exporting green electricity to Europe is part of the long-term vision, the core goal of the initiative is to accelerate green growth within the region,” Zhukov told The Times of Central Asia. Together with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the ADB is funding a feasibility study for this proposed transmission corridor. The study will assess the technical and economic viability of such a system, along with the environmental and regulatory requirements. In the meantime, the ABD is expected to continue funding other green energy projects in the region. The financial entity, according to Zhukov, invested $250 million in Uzbekistan in 2023 to support renewable energy development and comprehensive power sector reforms, while in other Central Asian countries, it remains “firmly committed to driving the green energy transition.” “For instance, in Tajikistan we are exploring the potential to co-finance the Rogun Hydropower Project alongside the World Bank and other international partners. In Kyrgyzstan, our focus has been on supporting foundational reforms in the energy sector, including strengthening the policy and regulatory environment to attract private investment in renewables. In Turkmenistan, we’ve launched a total of $1.75 million technical assistance initiative to help lay the groundwork for future renewable energy development,” Zhukov stressed, pointing out that these efforts are part...

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Opinion – Central Asia’s Looming Water Crisis: A Ticking Time Bomb

When people think of Central Asia, they often picture vast deserts, ancient Silk Road cities, and oil pipelines stretching to distant markets. Yet the region’s most urgent and combustible resource is not buried underground — it flows above it. Water, or more precisely the lack of it, is rapidly becoming the defining fault line of Central Asia’s future. For decades, the five Central Asian republics have tiptoed around a growing water crisis. The two major rivers that sustain life in this arid region, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, are now so contested and depleted that what was once a technical issue has metastasized into a geopolitical threat. The region's major rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya are under immense pressure, threatening agriculture, livelihoods, and regional stability. At the heart of the crisis is a tragic irony. The upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are rich in water but poor in energy and cash. They need to release water in winter to generate hydropower. Downstream nations, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, want water stored until the summer to irrigate vast cotton and wheat fields. The result? Mutual distrust, occasional diplomatic spats, and an accelerating race to dam, divert, and hoard water in a region already gasping under the weight of climate change. A Region Parched Central Asia annually utilizes over 60 billion cubic meters of water for irrigation from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. However, recent years have seen a decline in river flows, with the actual flow of the Syr Darya being 20–23% less than the norm. Further, the ghost of the Aral Sea — a once-thriving inland lake that has now shrunk by over 90% in its volume and 74 % in surface area — serves as a haunting reminder of the cost of mismanagement. The Soviet legacy of excessive irrigation has morphed into a post-Soviet scramble for control, where water is not just a tool of survival but a lever of power. This desiccation has transformed the region, leading to the emergence of the Aralkum Desert and causing severe ecological and health issues. Climate Change Intensifies the Crisis Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity in Central Asia. A recent study revealed that an extreme heatwave in March 2025, with temperatures soaring 5 to 10°C above pre-industrial levels, was significantly amplified by global warming. Such temperature surges accelerate glacier melt and increase evaporation rates, further reducing water availability. By some estimates, Central Asia could lose over 30% of its freshwater resources by 2050. Yet, rather than galvanize cooperation, this existential threat has sparked more competition. International efforts have largely fallen flat. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), the region’s main water cooperation body, is riddled with inefficiencies and lacks enforcement power. External actors like China and Russia have their own interests, often deepening the regional divide rather than healing it. Inefficient Water Management Inefficient agricultural practices remain one of the most profound and persistent contributors to water mismanagement across Central Asia. In...

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World Bank to Investigate Regional Risks of Rogun Dam Project

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan concerning the environmental and social risks associated with the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan. The complaint, submitted by the regional environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, targets a $350 million World Bank loan and related technical assistance used to revise the project’s 2014 environmental and social impact assessments. The complainants argue that the current studies are outdated and inadequate, relying on assumptions that are more than a decade old. They contend the assessments fail to account for the downstream effects of storing and diverting water from the Vakhsh River, one of the primary tributaries of the Amu Darya basin, on communities and ecosystems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that filling the Rogun reservoir could decrease the flow into the Aral Sea by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers annually, potentially cutting today’s levels by as much as 25%. Such a reduction, critics warn, could exacerbate ongoing issues in the region, including desertification, soil salinity, and land degradation. These challenges have plagued villages in the lower Amu Darya since Soviet-era irrigation schemes dramatically reduced the sea’s volume, leading to persistent dust storms and declining water quality. Local farmers are particularly concerned about the dam’s effect on the timing of water availability. If the dam shifts the river’s flow from spring and summer into winter storage, it could disrupt traditional irrigation cycles, forcing expensive infrastructure adjustments. Some communities fear economic collapse and forced migration if water needs go unmet during critical planting seasons. Environmental experts also highlight the cumulative threat posed by the Rogun HPP in conjunction with Afghanistan’s planned Qosh Tepa canal. No comprehensive analysis has been conducted to evaluate the combined impact of these two major water diversion projects on regional hydrology and biodiversity. The World Bank itself estimates that climate change could reduce water availability in the region by 15-30% by 2050, potentially costing Uzbekistan up to 250,000 agricultural jobs and requiring billions in climate adaptation investments. In response, Rivers Without Boundaries has called on the World Bank and its co-financiers, who have collectively pledged over $1 billion, to suspend further funding until a transparent, independent risk assessment is completed. The coalition advocates for a thorough study of alternative project designs, such as a lower dam height, to mitigate environmental and social damage. They also demand genuine public consultation with all Amu Darya basin countries, equitable compensation mechanisms, and legally binding water management agreements. Failure to address these concerns, the group warns, risks triggering an irreversible ecological and humanitarian crisis across Central Asia.

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Seismic Cities: Is Central Asia Prepared for a Major Earthquake?

The recent 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar, which claimed over 3,500 lives and caused structural failures more than 1,000 kilometers away in Bangkok, has once again highlighted the precariousness of life in seismically active regions. “Earthquakes happen on geological faults, which are often sited at the edges of mountain ranges.” Richard Walker, Professor of Tectonics at the University of Oxford told The Times of Central Asia. “Sadly, the edges of mountain ranges are often the best places to live, due to the presence of water and of land for farming.” All Central Asian capitals, except for Kazakhstan’s relocated capital Astana, are located on such terrain. This has historically made them vulnerable. The 1948 earthquake in Ashgabat destroyed almost the entire city; Tashkent suffered a similarly destructive event in 1966, and Almaty was wracked by twin blows in 1887 and 1911. Although no such catastrophic event has occurred in the last half century, the earth beneath the region continues to rumble restlessly. Two quakes in early 2024 left the residents of Almaty unnerved. Last week, on April 14, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Tajikistan caused the death of a young boy and damage to around thirty homes near the Chinese border. Though moderate, these tremors serve to remind residents of the active tectonics of the region and raise questions about the structural readiness of buildings and infrastructure should a stronger event occur. Botched Building After the 2023 earthquake on the Turkey-Syria border, which killed over 53,000 people in Turkey alone, authorities launched investigations into over a hundred individuals linked to the construction of buildings that did not withstand the tremors. Such stories were familiar to people who grew up in the Soviet Union. In the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia, tens of thousands died in Leninakan (now Gyumri). Many of the casualties were put down to the collapse of identikit 9-storey tower blocks built in the Brezhnev era. These were designed to withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake; in the event, the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck Leninakan caused 72 out of 78 of these buildings to collapse. In a bitter irony, many older, pre-Soviet structures remained intact. One team of international inspectors blamed “very low construction standards and suspect joint details” in Leninakan for the scale of the disaster. Similar precast tower blocks to those that collapsed in Armenia can be seen across the former USSR. According to the Uzbek media, the Cabinet of Ministers estimated in 2023 that approximately 70% of private housing in the country failed to meet current earthquake resistance standards. “The 2023 earthquake in Turkey was a tragic reminder of the importance of strict compliance with building codes and continuous quality control of construction in seismic regions,” Daulet Sarsenbayev, director of the Kazakhstan’s National Scientific Center for Seismological Observations and Research, told TCA. “Such events provide valuable lessons for all countries, including Kazakhstan, in terms of the need to strengthen the regulatory framework, increase transparency in the construction industry, and invest in resilient infrastructure.” In response to the...

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Earthquake in Tajikistan Kills One Child, Damages About 30 Homes

A powerful earthquake struck Tajikistan on Sunday, killing a young child who was trapped under a wall, damaging about 30 houses and alarming people in parts of neighboring countries who felt the impact. The epicenter of the quake was 25 kilometers east of Rasht, Tajikistan, at a depth of 12.6 kilometers, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. The Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre issued a similar report, saying the magnitude was 5.9 and citing the accounts of witnesses who said there was strong shaking in Dushanbe, the capital. The Rasht area is about 150 kilometers northeast of Dushanbe and lies on the border with Kyrgyzstan. Disaster response authorities in Tajikistan identified the child who died as Abdugani Mashrabov, a resident of the rural village of Ushturpast, who was born in 2022. At least 29 residential buildings and a school were damaged in the quake, mostly in the Rasht area, according to preliminary information from the government. The Rasht valley, which has picturesque landscapes of gorges and mountains, is relatively remote. It was an opposition stronghold during Tajikistan’s civil war in the 1990s and was the scene of intense fighting. More recently, development had been slowed by tensions between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that sometimes spilled into violence, though a border agreement signed last month between the two countries could open the way to increased trade and transit.

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Communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Demand World Bank Investigation into Rogun HPP

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to formally investigate the World Bank’s involvement in the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan, following a complaint filed on behalf of communities living downstream on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complaint, submitted by the international environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries, raises serious concerns about the project's environmental and social impacts. The group claims the World Bank approved funding for the project based on outdated and incomplete assessments, failing to adequately consider risks to local ecosystems and communities. At the heart of the issue is the potential impact of filling the Rogun reservoir, which could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta by 25% or more. Experts warn this could accelerate desertification, increase soil salinity, and threaten the livelihoods and health of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Particularly vulnerable are the region’s rare tugai forests, including the Tigrovaya Balka Reserve, which was inscribed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List in 2023. The dam's construction also endangers local aquatic species, such as the critically endangered Amu Darya false shovelnose sturgeon. “This investigation is a crucial step,” said Yevgeny Simonov, international coordinator of Rivers without Boundaries. “The Rogun project in its current form is a massive threat to the environment and to millions of people in Central Asia. The World Bank must adhere to its own environmental and social safeguards.” Activists also criticized the lack of public consultation in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where affected communities were allegedly not informed in their native languages, Uzbek, Karakalpak, or Turkmen and where access to key documents was limited. Several complainants reportedly requested anonymity, citing fear of retaliation, which reflects the challenging environment for civic participation in the region. “People living in the lower Amu Darya basin have already suffered for decades due to poor water management and the drying of the Aral Sea. The Rogun project could be the final blow,” said Manana Kochladze of CEE Bankwatch Network. “There has been no serious dialogue with those whose lives depend on this river, which contradicts the basic principles of transparency and participation.” In 2023, environmental groups submitted proposed modifications to align the Rogun project with international standards, including cheaper and safer alternatives. However, the World Bank has yet to respond. Rivers without Boundaries alleges that the project violates multiple Bank policies, including those on environmental assessment, biodiversity protection, resource efficiency, dam safety, community engagement, and resettlement. The coalition is now urging the World Bank and other financiers to pause funding until a comprehensive, independent, and transparent investigation is completed and until meaningful steps are taken to prevent further harm to both people and nature.