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Azerbaijan Is Bringing Uzbekistan into the Middle Corridor

The Treaty on Allied Relations between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, signed last month, formalizes their growing strategic partnership and signals a new phase in their deepening ties. Their relationship has gained momentum particularly as Azerbaijan has been prioritizing the expansion of its networks in the region since 2020. Uzbekistan now plays a significant role in Azerbaijan’s efforts to strengthen the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR, also known as the Middle Corridor), the key trade and infrastructure link among Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Turkey. Uzbekistan and the Middle Corridor Within the last year and a half, many international financial institutions have published comprehensive studies on the implementation of the TITR project. One of the most influential was organized by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in June 2023, in collaboration with the European Commission. It was an in-depth examination of existing and potential infrastructure and logistical networks across the region. The goal of the report was to determine the “most sustainable option” for efficient transport connections between Central Asia and Europe. This report identified a route that it called the Central Trans-Caspian Network (CTCN), running principally through southern Kazakhstan. This route leverages the already well-established infrastructure and logistical systems there, making it the most viable option for trade and transport in the region. In a separate and complementary report, published in November 2023, the World Bank noted that Uzbekistan’s rail connections with Kazakhstan might be improved, but it did not identify any potential projects. Nevertheless, the Darbaza–Maktaaral project in Kazakhstan, projected for completion in 2025, could be extended first to Kazakhstan’s Syrdarya station, whence a further branch line could run to Zhetysai on the border with Uzbekistan. That project would reduce congestion at the existing Saryagash border crossing, which connects to Keles in Uzbekistan, in the north of the Tashkent conurbation. It could increase transport capacity by as much as 10 million tons per year. Still, the project focuses only on increasing the level of bilateral trade, largely in foodstuffs and agricultural goods, and does not target Uzbekistan’s integration into the Middle Corridor. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has been working actively with Uzbekistan to integrate it into the Middle Corridor, without relying on routes through southern Kazakhstan. Their cooperation includes significant efforts to enhance infrastructure and logistics. Examples include joint ventures in logistics centers and, notably, inter-modal transport links between Samarkand and Baku. Such efforts are designed to offer Uzbekistan direct access to the Caspian Sea and European markets via Azerbaijan, largely bypassing Kazakhstan and building a stronger trade partnership within the trans-Caspian framework. Uzbekistan’s Relations with Turkey Set the Context While this all started only a few years ago, a look back to 2016 when Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov died provides a more complete picture. After Shavkat Mirziyoyev succeeded Karimov, Uzbekistan began to open up from its diplomatic isolation. One of the first interested parties was Turkey. Both nations signaled interest in improving ties, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began to take steps...

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Karakalpak Activist Loses Asylum Bid in Kazakhstan

An Uzbek activist who has campaigned for the rights of people in the Uzbek region of Karakalpakstan faces possible extradition after Kazakhstan denied his asylum request, according to the activist´s supporters. Aqylbek Muratbai, who has lived in Kazakhstan for years, was arrested in February at the request of Uzbek authorities and a Kazakh commission ruled against his asylum request on Friday, his supporters said. New Kazakh regulations allow Muratbai to be moved to Uzbekistan “at any time,” according to Muratbai’s account on the X platform. His lawyer plans to appeal. Karakalpakstan is an arid, semi-autonomous area in the northwest of Uzbekistan that was the scene of deadly violence in 2022. Protesters marched in opposition to planned constitutional changes that would have removed that autonomous status, and security units used force to disperse the demonstrations. At least 21 people were killed, including 4 law enforcement officers, according to Human Rights Watch. Uzbek authorities have since prosecuted Karakalpak activists for crimes including the instigation of riots and sentenced some to long prison terms. At the same time, the government has launched an investment program to develop the long-neglected region. The Karakalpakstan question is particularly sensitive for Uzbekistan because the national constitution allows the region’s people to choose secession through a referendum. Muratbai’s camp had said that he would likely face unfair prosecution if he is extradited to Uzbekistan and that the Kazakh asylum process should take that possibility into account, even if maintaining good relations with the Uzbek leadership is also important.

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Uzbekistan and U.S. to Strengthen Cooperation on Critical Minerals

On September 16, the U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan, Jonathan Henick, and Uzbekistan’s First Deputy Minister of Geology, Omonullo Nasritdinkhodjaev, signed a Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen cooperation on critical minerals. As reported by the U.S. Embassy in Uzbekistan, the signing took place ahead of the Uzbek government’s participation in MINExpo INTERNATIONAL, the mining industry’s largest global event, which will take place from September 24 to 26 in Las Vegas. At the C5+1 summit in New York in September 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan announced their intention to launch a Critical Minerals Dialogue. The Uzbek-U.S. Memorandum signifies the intention of the United States and Uzbekistan to advance this effort, strengthen economic cooperation, and catalyze investment that advances the clean energy transition while protecting Central Asia’s unique ecosystems. As critical minerals and rare earth elements are essential for clean energy and other technologies, and play an increasingly important role in the economies of both countries, the Embassy said that the United States is actively working to encourage private sector investment in Uzbekistan’s mining sector. It added that the memorandum further reflects both nations’ shared goal of ensuring high environmental, labor, and governance standards in the global mining sector. Ambassador Henick commented: “The United States and Uzbekistan must cooperate to have resilient, secure supply chains supporting the future energy landscape. This memorandum demonstrates our commitment to diversifying global mineral supply chains and expanding our bilateral trade relationship. We are delighted to mark another milestone in our expanding Strategic Partnership with Uzbekistan.” In April 2024, Uzbekistan and the European Union signed a Memorandum of Understanding launching a strategic partnership on critical raw materials (CRMs). Uzbekistan has the second-largest reserves of CRMs in Central Asia (after Kazakhstan), with significant deposits of copper, molybdenum, and gold. The country's mining strategy aligns with its ambitions to increase CRM processing of CRMs for domestic and international industries, particularly in automotive and consumer electronics.

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Central Asian Countries Unite To Support Women and Children Repatriated From Conflict Zones

UNICEF Uzbekistan reports that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are actively working to improve the support system for women and children returning from conflict zones, such as Iraq and Syria. In support of the European Union's project “The second phase of EU-UN support to Central Asian states for their citizens returning from conflict zones,” delegations from the above met to discuss their shared experiences and means of providing necessary support and services for successfully reintegrating women and children into society. Uzbekistan was one of the first countries in Central Asia to start repatriating its citizens from conflict zones. Since 2019, the country has undertaken several missions to return women and children stranded in conflict zones as part of operations known as “Mehr” (“kindness” in Uzbek). The “Mehr-1” and “Mehr-2” operations have enabled the Government of Uzbekistan to repatriate many of its citizens, and in cooperation with the government of Iraq and UNICEF, offer a safe haven in their motherland for children deprived of basic necessities such as food, clean water, and medical care while living in war zones and refugee camps. On their return, repatriated citizens are placed in special sanatoriums where they are provided with hot food, clothing, and the services of doctors, therapists, and teachers. To date, Uzbekistan has successfully repatriated 531 citizens, including 331 children, 125 women, and 27 men. The country's initiative has been praised internationally and noting its focus on the interests of children and supporting the family unity and society, Ní Aoláin, a UN expert has stateed that, “The Uzbek model of repatriation and reintegration provides a roadmap for other governments to return their nationals from conflict zones." Kazakhstan, likewise, has committed to the repatriation of its citizens from areas previously controlled by the Islamic State, and has launched operations “Jusan” and “Rusafa”, implemented with a high level of coordination between various government agencies, including national security services, diplomats, and the military. One of the most essential repatriations took place within the framework of the “Jusan” operation, launched in 2019. The name “Jusan” means bitter wormwood; native to Kazakhstan and a symbol of homesickness. Through this operation, hundreds of women and children were rescued from dangerous refugee camps in Syria, including the notorious Al-Hol Camp. Maryam, one of the women repatriated during the “Jusan” operation, said that the "first time a delegation from Kazakhstan arrived was to collect data on Kazakh citizens in the Al-Hol Camp. They promised to come back for us soon. A month of waiting felt like an eternity to us.” According to women from the tent camp, the shortage of drinking water and provisions, essential medicines, and the unbearable heat aggravated the situation and led to constant conflicts between residents. The humanitarian operations “Jusan” and “Rusafa” enabled the return of 725 people to Kazakhstan, including 188 women and 522 children, most of whom were under twelve years of age. Kazakhstan's success in such operations has been attributed to the high level of investment by the state. According to Gabit Konusov,...

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A Closer Look: Scholz Trip Shows Europe’s Interest in Central Asia

Energy, trade, climate change, geopolitical conflict. These are some of the big themes surrounding a trip by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Central Asia, whose countries seek to expand their range of international partners while securing their autonomy from outside, sometimes competing influences. Joined by German business leaders, Scholz was scheduled to arrive in Uzbekistan on Sunday and also visit Kazakhstan prior to a Central Asia-Germany summit there on Tuesday, the last day of his tour. It is Scholz’s first trip to Central Asia, signaling how important the region has become for Europe as it seeks new energy alternatives to reduce dependence on supplies from Russia since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Western-backed Ukraine in February 2022. The relationship goes beyond the stopgap purchase of energy and minerals, even though Russian officials has accused Western countries of trying to use Central Asia as a tool in their conflict with Russia. At an inaugural summit last year in Berlin, Germany along with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan agreed to a “strategic regional partnership.” European countries recognize that the Central Asia is deeply bound to Russia and China, the regional powers, and that European and Central Asian goals and priorities won’t always align, according to Western analysts. However, Central Asian countries also recognize that engaging with Europe, the United States and other more distant partners is in their interests because it helps them to maintain strategic autonomy and leverage. “If the Central Asian states want to gain weight and be heard in the emerging multipolar world order, they must strengthen their technological, industrial and geopolitical independence,” analysts said in a commentary posted by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, which advises the German government and parliament. “This does not necessarily imply decoupling from Russia and China, but rather spreading risk through the addition (not substitution) of partners.” The analysts said Germany should bolster Central Asian autonomy by helping to strengthen the region’s “crisis resilience” via support on issues such as transport routes, electricity infrastructure and water management. They also said European efforts to “win the support of regional states for Western sanctions against Russia must be measured against the realities on the ground” – an apparent reference to the trade with Russia that Central Asia considers vital to its economies. Kazakhstan, which shares a long land border with Russia, has in particular faced a difficult balancing act on sanctions. At a press briefing with Scholz in Berlin in September 2023, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said his country would comply with Western sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine war while still cooperating with its neighbor. However, Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister and trade minister, told the Bloomberg news agency last month that Kazakhstan won’t always “blindly follow the sanctions” and will be looking out for its own economic interests. Human rights groups want Scholz to bring up freedoms and the rule of law during his trip to Central Asia. They argue that avoiding the topic will only hinder efforts to bring German investment...

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Uzbekistan’s Point Man Against Russian “Chauvinism”

Alisher Qodirov is 49 years old, the leader of Uzbekistan’s Milli Tiklanish (National Revival) party, the deputy speaker of the lower house of parliament, and a former presidential candidate. And Qodirov is also a leading critical voice in Uzbekistan regarding the country’s Soviet past and comments of current Russian chauvinists. On September 4, Qodirov wrote on his Telegram account that Soviet ideological propaganda should be banned in Uzbekistan. He was responding to a court verdict earlier that day against a 74-year-old pensioner in Samarkand who was found guilty of “encroaching on the constitutional order of Uzbekistan.” Specifically, the man advocated the restoration of the Soviet Union and said Uzbekistan’s independence was superficial. Qodirov wrote that Uzbekistan’s time as a Soviet republic was a “sad period of our history.” The Milli Tiklanish leader said even suggesting a recreation of the USSR was a “betrayal of our people and our ancestors, who became victims of the bloody regime.” Qodirov continued that calls for Uzbekistan‘s reincorporation into some sort of a resurrected USSR “should be considered a crime against the constitutional order of the country.” The Milli Tiklanish leader said such thinking was a “betrayal of our people and our ancestors, who became victims of the bloody regime.” Qodirov has expressed his opinion on the Soviet Union before. When Uzbekistan marked May Day on May 1, 2021, the Soviet flag was raised during a concert of “Songs of Victory” in Tashkent. Posting on Telegram, Qodirov called the incident “an insult and a provocation… to the Uzbek people to raise the flag of the Soviet occupying state in the very center of the capital, which is soaked in the blood of… our ancestors.” Russian chauvinism has been rising since the Kremlin launched its full-scale war on Ukraine, and so have irredentist remarks from people on Russian television and officials in the State Duma. Kazakhstan, which shares a 7,800-kilometer border with Russia, is usually the target, but in the last year, Uzbekistan has been mentioned. On December 20, 2023, Russian writer, nationalist, and co-chairman of the A Just Russia – For the Truth party, Zakhar Prilepin spoke about migrant laborers at press conference in Moscow. The majority of migrant laborers in Russia are from Central Asia and Prilepin said, “These territories, from where migrant workers come to us, should simply be annexed entirely.” Prilepin specifically mentioned Uzbekistan, as more than half the Central Asian migrant laborers in Russia come from there. “Uzbekistan, for example… since two million of your citizens are on our territory, we claim your territory,” Prilepin told a press conference, and added, “Who will forbid us to do anything useful on the territory of the Eurasian territory after the parade in Kyiv? No one.” Less than one month later, on January 22, 2024, Russia’s NTV television station showed an interview with a person identified as Mikhail Smolin, a historian. Smolin absurdly claimed the Uzbek nation never existed until after the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. Smolin said the same about Kazakhs and Azerbaijanis....