The Uzbek city of Termez, which lies on the border with Afghanistan and has hosted pilgrims, traders and soldiers over many centuries, is hosting a conference to promote contacts between Central and South Asia.
Organized by the Uzbek government, the three-day meeting this week brings together about 200 people from fields including politics, business and research, some of whom have traveled from Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. The so-called Termez Dialogue on Connectivity, the first in the city, ends on Wednesday.
The forum represents a belief that the countries of Central and South Asia can benefit from expanding trade and other contacts with each other, despite periodic security, logistical and other concerns, and even outright conflict such as the recent crisis between India and Pakistan. Militants killed more than two dozen tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir on April 22, setting off fighting between the two nuclear-armed rivals in which dozens more people died. The adversaries reached a cease-fire on May 10.
“In the conditions of global instability, a free and constructive dialogue based on respect and equal participation of all parties is more important than ever,” said Eldor Aripov, director of the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies, a state research group in Uzbekistan that helped to organize the conference.
Aripov said mutual trade turnover between Central and South Asia was more than $5 billion last year, though he characterized the figures as modest because there is more that the regions can do on economic collaboration. He highlighted the importance of the speedy implementation of the Trans-Afghan Corridor construction project, which would provide easier access to Indian Ocean ports for regional countries and more closely connect South Asia to markets in Central Asia, Russia, China and Europe.
The Trans-Afghan Corridor project, whose current estimated cost is nearly $5 billion, would constitute a core railway that runs from Termez through Kabul, Afghanistan and onward to Peshawar, Pakistan. Subsequent plans envision the railway as the basis for a broader transport network involving more countries.
There are challenges to the project, including security concerns in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as difficult, mountainous terrain in Afghanistan that would require considerable engineering expertise. While the railway is consistent with Central Asian goals of diversifying trade routes, potential alternatives to the project and geopolitical maneuvers by big powers could complicate prospects for success.
“The growing involvement of Central Asian countries in the trans-Afghan transportation sector presents a significant opportunity to fully realize the region’s transit potential, offering substantial economic and geopolitical advantages,” researcher Nargiza Umarova wrote in a March analysis for the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program.
“However, this increased engagement may also lead to competition among Central Asian states for new transport initiatives or prompt external rival forces to exploit these opportunities to advance their own interests,” Umarova said.
