IMF Forecasts Slower Growth for Kyrgyzstan, While Authorities Project Higher Rates
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth to slow to 6.8% in 2025, even after strong performance in the first half of the year. In its latest report, the IMF projects medium-term growth to stabilize at 5.2%. By contrast, Kyrgyz authorities remain bullish, forecasting GDP growth of 8.5-9% by year-end.
According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP expanded by more than 12% between January and May 2025, with preliminary figures placing the economy’s value at 573 billion KGS (approximately $6.5 billion).
Reflecting this momentum, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan recently revised its growth forecast upward from 8% to 9%. The central bank attributed this adjustment to accelerated investment activity, rising household incomes, and stronger domestic demand. Growth is being driven by key sectors such as manufacturing, trade, and construction, bolstered by proactive fiscal measures and robust business activity.
Diverging Forecasts and Economic Narratives
While acknowledging the resilience of Kyrgyzstan’s economy amid global volatility, the IMF maintains a more cautious outlook. Its report highlights a decline in inflation to single-digit levels and improvements in public debt management, both of which create fiscal space for critical investments in infrastructure, energy, and human capital.
“In the medium term, growth is expected to approach its potential of 5.2% as re-export trade normalizes. However, the economic outlook remains sensitive to geopolitical risks. Strengthening fiscal buffers and implementing structural reforms remain priorities for the country,” the IMF noted in a statement.
This divergence in outlook is not new. In 2023, then Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov famously wagered with World Bank Chief Economist Hugh Riddell that GDP growth would exceed 7%. Japarov ultimately won the bet, as the actual performance validated his projection, despite widespread skepticism.
Experts Weigh In
Economist Nurgul Akimova attributes the differing forecasts to contrasting methodologies. “International organizations use standardized models that consider macroeconomic indicators, institutional stability, and vulnerability to external shocks,” she explained. “Kyrgyz authorities, by contrast, often base their projections on optimistic assumptions about investment inflows, export expansion, and remittances.”
Akimova also highlighted the political motivations behind domestic forecasts. “Official estimates serve to project confidence, both to the public and to investors. However, overly optimistic projections can obscure risks and complicate fiscal planning.”
“In the short term, the government can often meet its targets by mobilizing domestic resources. But in the long run, IMF forecasts tend to be more accurate as they account for both internal and external vulnerabilities,” she concluded.
