On December 25, an Azerbaijani Embraer 190 aircraft operating a Baku-Grozny flight made a hard emergency landing near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan. The aircraft, carrying five crew members and 62 passengers, suffered devastating consequences. Both pilots were killed, along with 36 passengers. Additionally, 29 people, including three children, were hospitalized.

The aircraft disintegrated on impact, and a fire engulfed its midsection. Initial reports suggested a bird strike, but alternative theories have since emerged.

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations detailed the timeline: at 11:02 Astana time, the crew issued a distress signal while flying over the Caspian Sea. By 11:37, the plane made a hard landing in the steppe near Aktau.

Before official rescue teams arrived, employees of a local energy company working nearby provided critical first aid and captured the first videos of the crash. They managed to pull 15 passengers from the wreckage of the tail section. Specialized rescue teams and medics, stationed at Aktau airport in anticipation of the emergency landing, arrived promptly thereafter.

According to Nurdaulet Kilybay, Akim of Mangystau Region, “22 ambulance teams and six units from the Center for Disaster Medicine worked at the crash site.” The regional multidisciplinary hospital had prepared “30 surgical and trauma beds, along with 10 intensive care beds” for victims.

Speculations and Investigations

Journalists questioned Bozumbayev during the briefing about theories which are currently circulating, including those suggesting air defense involvement. The official avoided drawing conclusions, stating: “It is impossible to establish even a preliminary cause because there are specialists for this. They will carry out work. Then it will be clear. I can’t speak now. I watched what people are posting… While [the plane] fell to the ground, and turned over, a lot of things could have happened. So, I am far from reaching conclusions.”

Speculation on Russian Telegram channels has posited that perforations in the aircraft’s tail section resemble shelling damage. One theory links the crash to Ukrainian drone (UAV) raids over Grozny, suggesting that air defense systems mistakenly targeted the plane.

The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU claimed that “Initially, the aircraft appears to have fallen victim to UAV jammers that were operating at the time because of a drone attack. As soon as the airliner started to descend for landing, its GPS stopped working and the dispatcher lost ‘radar contact.’ The pilot could not land the plane in such conditions and decided to fly to Baku. When he began to turn around to do so, there was an explosion nearby — all indications are that the plane was hit by air defense equipment.”

The report further alleges that the strike occurred over Chechnya’s Naursky District, home to military units equipped with air defense systems.

Kazakh officials stressed the need for patience, as forensic and aviation experts work to analyze the wreckage and flight data, with Bozumbayev emphasizing that “An interdepartmental investigative and operational group has been set up. Both forensic experts and experts from our Aviation Administration, who investigate such air incidents, came with me. As part of the criminal case, they will collect all the evidence, utilize the necessary expertise… Decipher the black box and so on.”

Bozumbayev also clarified who holds jurisdiction over the investigation:

“Everything is under the jurisdiction of the Republic of Kazakhstan,” he stated. “The airplane accident occurred in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the entire investigation is under the strict control of the Prosecutor General. The head of state has given appropriate instructions.”

According to Euronews, on the 26th Azerbaijani government sources confirmed to the outlet that a Russian surface-to-air missile was responsible for the plane crash. The missile, reportedly fired during drone activity over Grozny, exploded near Flight 8432, with shrapnel injuring passengers and crew mid-flight. Sources revealed pilots were denied emergency landing clearance at Russian airports and directed to Aktau instead. Data indicates GPS systems were jammed over the Caspian Sea. The missile was launched from a Pantsir-S air defense system, according to Baku-based outlet AnewZ.

Citing video footage from inside the plane which shows “punctured life vests,” earlier on Wednesday, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council’s Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, posted on X that the Azerbaijani airline plane “flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defence system.”

President Aliyev of Azerbaijan has announced the launch of a criminal investigation.

Official Statements

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport Marat Karabayev announced at a briefing in Aktau that before entering Kazakh airspace, the airplane’s control systems, rudder and ailerons failed. The airplane was unable to maintain a steady course and altitude.

The air dispatcher in the Russian city of Rostov said that in light of weather conditions in Makhachkala (Russia) and Baku (Azerbaijan), the crew decided to fly to Aktau.

At 10.53, Rostov’s flight manager reported that an oxygen cylinder had exploded on the aircraft in the passenger cabin, and that passengers were losing consciousness.

Mangistau Region Transport Prosecutor Avilaibek Oldabayev has said that the crash site, which covers an area of more than 4,000 square meters, has been fully surveyed. The wreckage of the plane has been collected and recordings of conversations between the crew and the dispatcher have been seized.

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Transportation Minister Talgat Rastayev has mentioned that further investigative work will involve foreign expertise. “Decoding will begin after the arrival of experts from Brazil, the country that produces the Embraer 190 airplane. A commission will be set up to determine the sequence of decryption based on all the data collected. The expert from Brazil will arrive tomorrow, after which the analysis will begin,” Rastayev said.

Deputy Minister of Health of Kazakhstan Timur Muratov has commented: “This morning nine citizens of the Russian Federation were evacuated to Moscow for further treatment. Also this evening 14 citizens of Azerbaijan were evacuated to their country. Currently, six people, three citizens of Azerbaijan and three citizens of Kyrgyzstan are being treated. Four of them are in intensive care units, and the condition of one patient remains extremely serious and unstable. Treatment continues.”

Kazakhstani Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev did not confirm the missile strike. “A number of checks are currently underway, including an investigation. Until we get the results, we can’t say anything or make any conclusions”.

Broader Implications

Analyst and widely-read Russian blogger, Anatoly Nesmiyan has speculated that the full truth of the matter might be suppressed. “Apparently, it has been decided to deal with the downed passenger plane in a quite standard way: not to say or report anything at all. All questions will be answered as briefly and dryly as possible: we will not draw hasty conclusions; let the experts work.”

Newmiyan has further predicted that a narrative attributing the tragedy to pilot error may well emerge. “Someone must be to blame, and the pilot has already been killed,” he stated.

Given the diplomatic priorities of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, both nations are unlikely to risk confrontation with Moscow, even if Grozny is implicated. However, if the air defense error theory holds, Azerbaijan might leverage the incident as a political tool in its dealings with Russia.

While official investigations continue, the crash near Aktau raises pressing questions about aviation safety, geopolitical sensitivities, and transparency. Whether the truth will emerge will depend on the outcome of the investigation and its handling.

*This story was updated at 15:57GMT on December 28th 2024*