Uzbekistan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Nuclear Race: Will Central Asia Build a Nuclear Power Plant?

The answer to the question posed in the title remains uncertain. While Uzbekistan has plans to construct a nuclear power plant and Kazakhstan is set to hold a referendum this fall to gauge public opinion on building one, progress is sluggish. Tashkent has postponed the start of construction, and the issue sparks heated debate in Kazakhstan. The First Nuclear Power Plant in Central Asia Historically, Central Asia did host a nuclear facility. Located on the shore of the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, this was not a conventional nuclear power plant but a fast neutron reactor known as BN-350. The reactor was the core of the Mangistau Nuclear Power Plant, designed to transform the Mangyshlak Peninsula by providing energy to the city of Aktau (formerly Shevchenko) and powering large-scale desalination plants that supplied drinking water to the arid region. [caption id="attachment_20031" align="aligncenter" width="366"] BN-350[/caption] Operational from 1973 until its shutdown in 1999, the BN-350 reactor was decommissioned due to the allocation of U.S. funds for new desalination and heating equipment and the disposal of its remaining fuel. The extensive maintenance and decommissioning work on the BN-350 have given Kazakhstani nuclear physicists significant experience with such complex and hazardous technology. However, younger generations in Kazakhstan are largely unaware of the BN-350 reactor’s existence. Their knowledge of nuclear physics is often limited to the harrowing stories passed down about nuclear warhead tests at the Semipalatinsk test site and their devastating effects. Fear and Nuclear Power: Kazakhstan's Dilemma The societal fear surrounding nuclear energy in Kazakhstan is deeply intertwined with political concerns. For a long time, the leadership in Kazakhstan has hesitated to move beyond merely discussing the need for a nuclear power plant (NPP) to actually initiating the project. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev recently announced that a referendum would take place in the fall of 2024. However, Ministry of Energy's officials avoided mentioning the word "referendum" until the last moment, previously asserting it was unnecessary. Public hearings were held last year in the village of Ulken, Zhambyl district, Almaty region, a proposed site for the nuclear plant. The Ministry of Energy’s press release stated that the local populace supported developing nuclear power, highlighting its significance for regional socio-economic growth. However, media reports revealed that the hearings were contentious, with opposing viewpoints almost disrupting the speech of Nurlan Ertas, the head (akim) of the Zhambyl district. Activists even displayed banners and posters against the plant's construction. Certain groups have exploited the population's fear of another disaster like Chernobyl. Additionally, the government has struggled to convince the public that nuclear technologies are becoming safer. In contrast, Europe now includes nuclear power plants in its list of green energy sources, similar to other renewable energy sources (RES). In Kazakhstan, renewable energy accounts for only 5% of the total energy produced. The introduction of NPPs could significantly enhance the country’s position in reducing carbon emissions. The government faces a growing electricity shortage that can be addressed either harmfully or fearfully. The harmful options are coal-fired thermal power plants...

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UN: Central Asia’s Big Youth Population is Key to Progress

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres shook hands with presidents and addressed dignitaries in ornate halls during a tour of Central Asia last week. But he also spent a lot of time with young people, saying “their potential is largely untapped” in a region where, by United Nations estimates, people under 30 years old make up more than 50% of the population. Guterres, a former prime minister of Portugal, met young climate activists in Kyrgyzstan and students in Turkmenistan. In Tajikistan, the U.N. chief said 70% of that country’s population is under 30 and told young people at a school there to hold elders to account on the pressing challenge of climate change. “You have the moral authority to talk to others - as those that suffered the impacts of climate change and are not contributing essentially to it,” Guterres said at a school established by UNICEF with funding from the European Union. “You are the victims of climate change. So, you have the right to tell the others, ‘Behave.´ Because they are not behaving.” Think globally, Guterres told the students. “It’s not Tajikistan or Uzbekistan,” he said. “No, it’s everything together.” The U.N.’s focus on young people having a say in Central Asia stems from a sense of possibility in what could shape up as an increasingly strong labor and leadership pool, as well as concern that young people with few prospects drift into unemployment and disenchantment, fueling social pressures and instability. The fertility rate in the wider region comprising Europe, North America and Central Asia has dropped in numerous countries in the last decade, while the “five Central Asian countries, Georgia, Israel and Monaco are the only countries in the region with a total fertility rate at or above replacement level,” the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe said in a report in October. At the same time, the report said, the Central Asian states are among the countries in the region that have “experienced negative net migration” since 2015, while countries receiving the largest numbers of migrants in that period were the United States, Russia, and Germany. The total population of the five Central Asian countries is about 76 million. Some of those countries, especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, rely heavily on remittances from nationals who struggle to find work at home and seek opportunities abroad, particularly in Russia. The alleged involvement of several Tajiks in a deadly terror attack in the Moscow area in March led to a backlash of harassment and intense scrutiny aimed at many Central Asian migrants in Russia. At a regional health forum in Kyrgyzstan last month, the Europe director of the World Health Organization, a U.N. agency, noted that Central Asia has a “significant young and educated population” at a time when European populations are aging. “This will – if the youth potential is maximized – give Central Asia an edge in the decades ahead,” the director, Dr. Hans Kluge, said.

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Tokayev Calls For Expanded SCO to Play Greater Role on Global Stage

A meeting entitled “Strengthening Multilateral Dialogue – Striving for Sustainable Peace and Development” was held to conclude the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana on July 4. The meeting was was held in the "SCO Plus" format. and was attended by the leaders of the SCO full member states who participated in the Summit earlier in the day, plus leaders of the organization's observer countries and dialogue partners. These included the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, and the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The SCO Plus session of the Summit took on greater importance this year, amid suggestions that the alliance is primed to expand next year. Countries interested in joining the SCO as full members include Turkey, Qatar and Egypt. In his speech at the meeting, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the role that the SCO can play as a stabilizing force in the international arena. “Today the world is faced with serious challenges caused by unprecedented geopolitical contradictions and growing conflict potential,” said Tokayev. “The international security architecture is under threat, which could lead to dire consequences for all of humanity. In such a fateful period, we are entrusted with a huge responsibility for strengthening peace, stability, and security through collective efforts at the regional and global levels. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, taking into account its authority, significant economic and human resources, is capable of developing effective solutions to achieve sustainable development goals and overcome modern challenges.” Concerning the role of the United Nations, Tokayev said that its potential is far from being exhausted. “Our common task is to strengthen the role of the UN as the main international institution for ensuring global security, capable of effectively confronting the challenges of the 21st century. The voice of the SCO should and will sound louder in the international arena, promoting a consolidated position on various problems of our time,” he emphasized. In his own speech, Gutteres referred to the SCO as "a valuable partner of the United Nations". With reference to strengthening trade and economic ties, Tokayev said: “At the current stage, the economies of the SCO member countries are demonstrating high growth rates of 4% to 9%. The share of the SCO states in global GDP is 30% already. Today, the foreign trade of the SCO participating countries exceeds $8 trillion, which is equivalent to a quarter of all world trade.” Tokayev emphasized the fact that economic growth in Asia is largely due to the SCO states. On behalf of Kazakhstan, he also welcomed China’s intention to expand access for SCO countries to its market, and increase trade turnover with the SCO member states to $3 trillion. “It is important for us to fully unleash the colossal economic potential of the SCO. The interaction of the SCO with such integration associations as the EAEU, BRICS and ASEAN opens up broad prospects. A powerful driver for sustainable growth in global trade is further strengthening of transport connectivity. More than...

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SCO Summit: Eurasian Alliance Signs Security Agreements; Welcomes Belarus

By Jonathan Campion, reporting from the SCO Summit in Astana At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Astana this morning, leaders from the bloc’s member states signed a host of agreements intended to promote cohesion in the Eurasia region. The first session, which was held behind closed doors, had begun with the signing of the document that accepted Belarus as the SCO’s 10th full member. The SCO is a political, security and economic alliance, of which Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are founding members. The group also includes China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, and now Belarus. The organization has four observer states and 14 dialogue partners, covering half of the world’s population, and almost a third of global GDP. The first agreement signed was a document outlining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s development strategy for the next 12 months. In 2025 Kazakhstan will pass chairmanship of the alliance to China, and there is speculation that the SCO may grow further next year, to include at least one new member. With security a growing concern for members, particularly in light of the March terrorist attack outside Moscow, for which the terror group Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) have claimed responsibility, leaders approved the SCO’s latest three-year Cooperation Program to counter terrorism, separatism and extremism. The parties also signed an agreement on the organization’s regional anti-drug strategy. Another high-profile document is the SCO’s development strategy for cooperation in the energy sphere. Kazakhstan is at the forefront of the region’s transition to green energy, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping mentioning the country’s new Zhanatas wind farm and the Turgusun hydropower station as key joint projects with China in an article published in the Kazakh press this week. The heads of state were welcomed to the Summit by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus and Chinese leader Xi Jinping the last to arrive, ten minutes after the other dignitaries. Some leaders did not arrive at all: India’s Narendra Modi is not attending this year’s SCO Summit, and has sent the country’s external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in his place. The Summit's afternoon session is styled as "SCO Plus". In attendance are the heads of state of the alliance's dialogue partners, including the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev. Turkmenistan – which is not affiliated to the SCO but which is invited as a guest – is led not by its President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, but by his father Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, the former leader who is now the chairman of the country’s People’s Council.

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Uzbek Afghan Business Forum

On July 3, an Uzbek-Afghan business forum was held in Tashkent to coincide with the visit of an Afghan delegation headed by Minister of Industry and Trade Nuriddin Azizi. The major event, the forum was attended by heads of ministries and government agencies, industry, and over 1,000 business representatives from both countries. As reported by the Uzbek Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, Afghanistan is Uzbekistan's fifth-largest export market. In the last five years, trade between the two countries has increased almost 1.5-fold, reaching $866 million in 2023. Uzbekistan currently receives Afghan investment in 550 enterprises, 443 of which are wholly funded with Afghan capital. In his welcoming speech, Laziz Kudratov, Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade of Uzbekistan, highlighted several promising areas of cooperation, including diversifying the range of goods traded, and bolstering cooperation between producers and exporters with support of both countries’ respective departments and industry associations. The forum focused on initiatives to further develop mutual trade, such as the transition to round-the-clock border crossing operations, the establishment of trading houses, and the execution of major transport and infrastructure projects. Attention was drawn to the significant impact of more proactive engagement at the International Trade Centre in Termez on the Uzbek-Afghan border, where the creation of business-friendly conditions include a 15-day visa-free regime and tax-free zone. Nuriddin Azizi, Minister of Industry and Trade of Afghanistan, commended Uzbekistan's efforts to foster an environment conducive to bilateral trade, economic and investment cooperation. He also encouraged more proactive engagement between Afghan and Uzbek entrepreneurs by offering assurance of both sides' readiness to support new ventures and initiatives. The forum was complemented by the exhibition "Made in Afghanistan" which showcased the produce of 75 major Afghan companies from jewellery, textiles and food to electrical engineering, mining, transportation and logistics. The event concluded with the signing of several trade agreements in the chemical and agricultural sectors, as well as an agreement to establish a logistics centre. According to the Uzbek Ministry of Transport, Afghanistan is one of the key links in ensuring regional connectivity across Central and South Asia. In recent years, cargo transportation across Afghanistan has risen significantly and in 2023, the volume carried along the multimodal transport corridor Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan increased 1.5-fold compared to 2021.

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Uzbekistan’s Foreign Trade Turnover Reaches $62 Billion

EUROUZ member EastCham has published the “Market Outlook Uzbekistan 2024” reference guide. According to the report, Uzbekistan’s GDP per capita is lower than that of neighboring Kazakhstan, but higher than Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Real GDP per capita may be higher than the official data suggests, however, as the volume of the national shadow economy is estimated at between 25 and 45% of Uzbekistan’s GDP. Per capita GDP is $2,510.1 (World Bank 2023), whilst the IMF forecasts $2,670 in 2024. GDP growth was 5.6% in 2023 (World Bank) and is expected to be 5.5% in 2024, and 5.6% in 2025. “In 2022, Uzbekistan ranked 70th globally in gross GDP, 86th in total exports, and 75th in total imports, while placing 155th in GDP per capita,” the report states. According to the report, Uzbekistan’s mining industry is one of the country’s most essential and internationally competitive industries, contributing up to around 30% of the country’s GDP. Uzbekistan is ranked 12th in the world in terms of mining. It is the world’s 5th-largest uranium, 8th-largest gold, and 11th-largest natural gas producer. Uzbekistan has the world’s 4th-largest gold, 7th-largest uranium, and 9th-largest copper reserves. In addition, metallurgy, the study of the physical and chemical behavior of metallic elements, is also one of the largest industries in Uzbekistan. Natural gas dominates Uzbekistan's energy complex. More than 85% of the country’s electricity is generated from natural gas, whilst coal generation is expected to increase from 3% to 10% in the coming years. Uzbekistan is one of the leading countries in the Eurasian region in terms of natural gas - it has large gas reserves and several small oil and coal resources. “The Uzbek authorities established the green economy and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydropower) as the basis of sustainable economic development and plan to increase the share of renewable energy generation to 30% by 2030. One of the concrete steps towards this goal is to build 28 solar and wind power plants with a total capacity of 8000 GW and hydropower plants with a total capacity of 868 MW by 2027. The government also plans to build a large nuclear power plant by 2028,” the report states. Last month, The Times of Central Asia published an interview with Neil McKain, the IFC regional manager for Uzbekistan, about the country’s potential to become a regional leader in renewable energy sources. The report also emphasizes problems in the country’s electricity network, including Tashkent's difficulties with heat and power supply systems in the last two years. Low temperatures have caused a decline in gas pipeline pressure (90% of power in Uzbekistan is produced by gas power plants). As a result, electrical heaters have gained popularity among residents of Tashkent, overwhelming the local power grid and leading to electricity shortages. President Mirziyoyev has acknowledged this problem, and Uzbekistan - Tashkent in particular - needs dramatic power and heat supply improvements. Foreign trade turnover in Uzbekistan has surged in recent years. In 2022, it reached $50 billion (an 18.6% increase...