Page 17 – The Times Of Central Asia

28 Nov 2025

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Turkmenistan Included as Trump Tightens U.S. Immigration Ban After D.C. Shooting

December 1, 2025
By Stephen M. Bland

President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping crackdown on immigration following a deadly shooting near the White House this week, placing new scrutiny on immigrants from certain countries – including Turkmenistan. Trump vowed to “permanently pause migration” from what he called “Third World” countries after two National Guard members were shot in Washington, D.C., one of them fatally. In response, U.S. immigration authorities are re-examining green cards and visa approvals for people from 19 countries deemed “countries of concern,” a list that features Turkmenistan alongside nations in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

New Immigration Review Follows D.C. Attack

The policy shift comes in the wake of an ambush-style attack on Wednesday in which an Afghan national allegedly opened fire on U.S. service members outside the White House. Army Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, 20, died from her injuries, and another Guardsman was critically wounded. Authorities arrested Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a 29-year-old Afghan man who arrived in the U.S. in 2021, as the suspect. Trump condemned the shooting as “an act of terror” and highlighted that the suspect entered under a Biden-era Afghan resettlement program. By Thursday, Trump directed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to conduct a “full-scale, rigorous reexamination” of all current green card holders from every “country of concern.” USCIS Director Joseph Edlow said the review was ordered “at the direction of the President” and stressed that “American lives come first.”

When pressed on which nations fall under the “countries of concern,” USCIS officials pointed to Trump’s June 4, 2025, presidential proclamation on foreign entry restrictions, which identified 19 countries with deficient security vetting or high visa overstay rates. It imposed a full travel ban on 12 nations and partial visa bans on 7 others.

Turkmenistan’s Status in Trump’s Travel Ban

Turkmenistan is one of seven countries under partial U.S. travel restrictions, meaning certain visa categories for Turkmen nationals have currently been suspended or tightened. According to the Trump administration, Turkmenistan was flagged due to security screening gaps and a high rate of U.S. visa overstays by its citizens. U.S. officials noted that about 15.35% of Turkmen visitors on tourist visas overstayed their permitted time in recent years. Turkmenistan has also been cited for limited cooperation on repatriating its citizens who are deported from the U.S. Under the June proclamation, Turkmen nationals were barred from obtaining immigrant visas or tourist and student visas for the U.S., though other travel may be allowed on a case-by-case basis.

By invoking what he called a “permanent pause” on migration, Trump signaled that even more sweeping immigration restrictions could be ahead. He wrote on social media that anyone who is “not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country” will be removed. For Turkmenistan, inclusion in the U.S. ban list marks a rare spotlight on the country in American immigration policy. Turkmenistan, where emigration is tightly controlled, sees low numbers of its citizens entering the U.S. Department of Homeland Security data for Fiscal Year 2023 indicates that the total number of Turkmen nationals on B-1/B-2 (business/tourist) visas expected to depart the U.S. was 925. Turkmen green card holders already in America are also subject to the ongoing USCIS review.

Fallout and Reactions

The aftermath of the D.C. shooting has reignited debate in Washington over the vetting of immigrants and refugees. Trump administration officials argue that tougher measures are necessary to prevent potential terrorists or criminals from entering the country. “The protection of this country and of the American people remains paramount,” USCIS Director Edlow said Friday, defending the crackdown. However, immigrant advocates note that broad-brush policies can disrupt families and that studies have found no link between immigrants and higher crime rates.

For now, the U.S. government has halted new immigration processing for Afghan nationals and is moving forward with reviewing existing permanent residents from the 19 flagged countries. The White House emphasized that the June proclamation’s exceptions still apply – meaning people from banned countries who already have asylum or refugee status in the U.S. are not affected.

28 Nov 2025

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Kyrgyzstan’s Renewable Pivot and the Strategic Weight of China’s Rising Role

November 28, 2025
By Yunis Sharifli

China’s energy engagement in Central Asia has undergone a quiet but decisive transformation since 2018. What was once a relationship built almost entirely on pipelines, hydrocarbons, and state-backed fossil fuel projects is now expanding into a much more diversified portfolio in which renewable energy plays an increasingly central role. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were the first to attract large-scale Chinese commitments in solar and wind power, yet Kyrgyzstan is quickly emerging as the newest frontier in this shift.

Recent agreements demonstrate how Bishkek is rapidly positioning itself within China’s clean energy expansion. In 2022, Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement with Chinese investors to build a 1-gigawatt solar plant in Issyk-Kul. Furthermore, the government concluded another agreement with Shenzhen Energy Group for the construction of two additional power plants, one solar and one wind.

The Energy Ministry has also reached an investment deal with States Technology Co. and San Energy Co. for a 250-megawatt solar facility in Batken. These projects indicate that Chinese capital is not only filling Kyrgyzstan’s immediate energy gaps, but is also beginning to reshape the country’s long-term energy structure.

This push toward solar and wind arrives at a critical moment. Kyrgyzstan remains overwhelmingly dependent on hydropower, which generates more than 90% of the country’s electricity. Yet this climate-sensitive resource is now far less stable than in the past.

Shifts in water levels driven by changing weather patterns have introduced new uncertainties into the country’s ability to meet domestic demand. At the same time, electricity consumption has surged at an unprecedented rate, rising by nearly one billion kilowatt hours in a single year due to newly launched industrial enterprises and rapid residential construction.

The combination of climate volatility and soaring consumption has placed the energy system under severe strain. The government has declared a three-year energy emergency and introduced consumption restrictions designed to save approximately 40 kilowatt hours per month. Under these conditions, diversifying away from near-total reliance on hydropower is no longer optional but an urgent strategic necessity.

Solar and wind investments offer a viable path forward. Expanding renewable capacity will give Kyrgyzstan a more predictable and resilient energy base, enabling the country to better manage seasonal shortages and climate-driven disruptions.

Kyrgyzstan also imports all of its fossil fuels. As renewable capacity expands and the use of electric vehicles increases, the country could gradually reduce its dependence on oil imports from Russia, easing both financial pressures and geopolitical exposure.

For this reason, cooperation with China represents more than a set of commercial transactions. It is evolving into a strategic pillar of Kyrgyzstan’s broader effort to strengthen energy security and modernize its power system. Chinese companies bring financing, technology, and implementation speed, all of which are essential for a country facing immediate and long-term energy risks.

The benefits may extend beyond the domestic market. With sufficient renewable capacity, Kyrgyzstan could eventually re-enter regional electricity trade as an exporter. Some estimates suggest that cross-border energy sales could generate up to 220 million dollars annually in foreign currency earnings, providing a significant boost to the economy.

However, cooperation with China also carries risks that Kyrgyzstan must manage carefully. A heavy reliance on Chinese firms may deepen the trade imbalance, since most renewable energy components will need to be imported from China for the foreseeable future.

As cooperation expands, Kyrgyzstan may also find itself increasingly tied to Chinese technical standards, which would integrate the country more deeply into a China-centered technological ecosystem. This could reduce Kyrgyzstan’s flexibility and limit its ability to adopt alternative technologies in the future.

These concerns highlight the need for a broader and more diversified approach. As Kyrgyzstan develops its diversification strategy for electric vehicles, Bishkek should also actively seek partnerships with a variety of countries on renewable energy rather than depending predominantly on China. Expanding the pool of technology providers would give Kyrgyzstan greater room to maneuver while strengthening resilience across the entire energy sector.

Kyrgyzstan should also prioritize negotiations on the localization of renewable energy components. By working with China and other international partners to establish local manufacturing of selected components, the country could increase renewable capacity while also expanding its own industrial base. This approach would allow Kyrgyzstan to maximize the economic benefits of the green transition rather than functioning mainly as an importer of foreign technologies.

With its current strategy, Kyrgyzstan’s cooperation with China brings substantial advantages in the form of energy diversification, improved energy security, and the potential for future electricity exports. Yet the same partnership also creates long-term risks that could deepen the country’s dependence on a single external actor. The ultimate success of Kyrgyzstan’s energy transition will therefore depend on its ability to balance these opportunities with a clear economic policy that prioritizes diverse partnerships and protects national autonomy.

28 Nov 2025

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Electric Vehicles in Kazakhstan: Growth, Gaps, and the Road Ahead

November 28, 2025
By Times of Central Asia

Despite growing interest in environmentally friendly transport, the share of electric vehicles (EVs) in Kazakhstan remains modest. This is due to their relatively late entry into the domestic market, persistent public skepticism, and an underdeveloped charging infrastructure. Nevertheless, electric mobility is already seen as a crucial component of Kazakhstan’s future transport strategy and its broader sustainable development agenda.

These are among the conclusions of a new study analyzing the state of the EV fleet in Kazakhstan and proposing measures to develop urban electric transport infrastructure.

According to official registration data, more than 19,000 electric cars and motorcycles were registered in Kazakhstan in the first half of 2025, a figure that reflects steadily rising interest in EV adoption.

More EVs, Fewer Charging Stations

If current trends continue, the EV fleet in Kazakhstan could increase more than tenfold by 2030, says Seydulla Abdullaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences and Head of the School of Transport Engineering and Logistics at the Satbayev Kazakh National Research Technical University. However, the pace of charging infrastructure development continues to lag.

“Even with the current ratio of 25 electric vehicles per charging station, Kazakhstan will need between 4,000 and 8,000 charging points by 2030. This will require significant investment, an updated regulatory framework, and more active participation from the private sector,” Abdullaev told The Times of Central Asia.

By comparison, in China, the global leader in EV production and charging infrastructure, one station serves an average of ten electric vehicles, a level considered high by industry standards. In Europe, EV charging stations are installed along highways at intervals of roughly 50 km. In contrast, only 23 such stations are currently operational on Kazakh highways.

International best practices highlight the value of equipping residential complexes and parking lots with courtyard chargers, especially when backed by state subsidies.

In Kazakhstan, a roadmap adopted in 2023 mandates that necessary EV infrastructure be established in all major cities by 2029. However, progress has been slow. In Almaty, which accounts for approximately 60% of the nation’s EV fleet, only 23 of the 40 planned charging stations were completed by 2024.

“Our analysis shows that the key barriers to electric transport development include inadequate infrastructure, a limited service base, and underdeveloped technical documentation. Moving forward, progress will largely depend on political decisions, particularly in areas such as EV production subsidies, charging station expansion, and buyer incentives,” Abdullaev noted.

Incentive Cuts Threaten Market Growth

Kazakhstan’s EV market has increasingly aligned with global trends, particularly the dominance of Chinese manufacturers. Today, around 70% of EVs in the country are made in China, followed by about 20% from the U.S., and the rest from Germany, Belgium, Austria, and Japan. According to Natalya Tokmurzina-Kobernyak, Associate Professor at the School of Transport Engineering and Logistics at Satbayev KazNITU, this technological diversity demands a broad and well-supported service infrastructure.

The global EV fleet, which stood at 58 million in 2020, had nearly quintupled by the end of 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. That figure is expected to reach 400 million by 2030. Two-thirds of these vehicles are battery electric, with hybrids making up the remainder.

In Kazakhstan, however, legislation only classifies battery electric vehicles as EVs. Hybrids are excluded under the Law “On Road Traffic.”

Researchers warn that the cancellation of import privileges could hurt EV adoption. The current exemption from customs duties was limited to 15,000 vehicles, a quota that has already been filled. Starting January 1, 2026, individual buyers will be required to pay 16% VAT, although the zero rate for transport and disposal taxes will remain. This is expected to raise EV prices by 30-40%.

EV charging network operators, who had anticipated a growth in demand, are now tempering their expectations. Bulat Pultambekov, a representative of the EVS charging station network, says the company is revising its business forecasts amid concerns about longer payback periods and tighter financing conditions.

Globally, governments offer extensive EV incentives. In the UK, subsidies reach $7,800; in France, up to 30% of a car’s value. Other common incentives include tax exemptions, free parking, use of public transport lanes, toll-free road access, zero VAT, and customs duty waivers.

The study modeled three development scenarios for EV mobility in Kazakhstan through 2030. Under the optimistic scenario, with continued state support, the EV fleet could grow to 120,000 units. A realistic projection puts the number at 78,000 (approximately 12% of the national vehicle fleet), while an inertial scenario, assuming limited policy support, projects growth to just 42,000 units.

“With the removal of import subsidies in 2025, we expect slower growth, even if the overall upward trend continues. As a result, the EV share will remain at 12-16%,” the study notes.

Who is Responsible for the Transition?

Kazakhstan has already adopted a basic legislative framework for EV regulation, including 17 national and 8 interstate standards for vehicles and chargers. Separate documents outline energy usage rules, and electrical safety is addressed in fire and installation regulations.

Yet, according to Tokmurzina-Kobernyak, the regulatory environment remains fragmented.

“We don’t have a dedicated law ‘On Electric Vehicle Transport’ that would consolidate all the disparate regulations,” she said, adding that Kazakhstan also lacks a single state body responsible for coordinating EV policy.

To fill these gaps, she recommends passing a specialized EV law, amending the Urban Planning Code, and introducing unified technical standards for charging station installation, adjusted for climatic differences across regions.

“Without systemic action, we cannot achieve zero harmful emissions,” she stressed.

One unresolved challenge is battery disposal. With an average lifespan of 5-7 years, the growing number of batteries will soon become an environmental concern. Safety is another issue: lithium-ion batteries can suffer from thermal runaway, leading to fire or explosion.

Though the technology is still emerging, several countries are already testing rapid heat-suppression systems. Kazakhstan’s fire services are also exploring new battery fire-extinguishing techniques. According to the research group, Kazakhstan has recorded three EV-related fires in the past four years. Future regulations for EV charging station placement are expected to include stricter fire and electrical safety requirements.

Experts agree that without active state involvement, further development of Kazakhstan’s EV sector is unlikely. A promising step is the roadmap for 2025-2035 being drafted by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a World Bank entity. The plan will draw on global best practices, propose financial incentives, and identify pilot projects.

Competing with global leaders like China and the U.S., who enjoy large-scale production and technological advantages, will be a challenge. Therefore, researchers argue, Kazakhstan must leverage advanced technologies and alternative fuels while capitalizing on its domestic resource base.

28 Nov 2025

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Number of Tajik Citizens on Russia’s “Controlled Persons” List Surpasses 150,000

November 28, 2025
By Sadokat Jalolova

The number of Tajik nationals included in Russia’s registry of “controlled persons” has risen sharply, according to new figures released by the Representative Office of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment in Russia. Citing the latest update, Asia-Plus reports that more than 150,000 Tajik citizens were listed as of November, an increase of approximately 30,000 since the last official count.

The previous figures, published in October 2024, placed the number at over 120,000. Since then, the Tajik authorities have repeatedly urged migrants in Russia to legalize their status and take steps to be removed from the so-called “blacklist.” However, no updated statistics had been released until now.

Russia’s controlled persons registry, which came into force on February 5, 2025, encompasses individuals accused of various administrative violations. These range from minor offenses such as unpaid utility bills and traffic infractions to failure to appear at state agencies despite repeated summonses. Russian authorities gave migrants until September 10 to regularize their documents and avoid inclusion in the system.

In September, Russia’s Interior Ministry announced that around 770,000 people were registered nationwide, one-third of them women and children. Foreign nationals on the list face wide-ranging restrictions, including bans on changing their place of residence without permission, leaving their region, operating vehicles, purchasing property, or conducting specific financial transactions.

Since the registry’s introduction, numerous migrants have reported being added to the list in error. Many only discovered their status after receiving bank notifications about frozen accounts or blocked transactions.

Tajikistan’s migration office in Russia continues to advise citizens to verify their status through the Russian Interior Ministry’s online platform. Migrants whose names appear on the list are encouraged to contact local migration offices for assistance. Those unable to resolve their situation are urged to leave Russia within the legally mandated timeframe.

Earlier this year, The Times of Central Asia reported that the Tajik authorities had called on labor migrants in Russia to renew their documents before the deadline when Russia’s updated migration regulations came into effect. The Tajik Interior Ministry has reminded citizens that maintaining legal residency is essential for continued employment in the country.

28 Nov 2025

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IMF: Uzbekistan’s Economy Strong but Reforms Needed to Sustain Momentum

November 28, 2025
By Sadokat Jalolova

Uzbekistan’s economy remains robust, supported by strong domestic demand, high gold prices, and rising investment, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The assessment was released in an end-of-mission statement following an IMF staff visit to Tashkent from November 17 to 25, led by Yasser Abdih.

The IMF reported that real GDP grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, driven by buoyant household consumption and increased investment. Despite sustained demand, inflation has moderated. Headline inflation fell to 7.8% in October, while core inflation eased to 6.6%. This slowdown, the IMF noted, reflects the diminishing impact of last year’s administrative energy price adjustments, a firmer exchange rate, and continued tight monetary policy.

Household lending grew rapidly, up 23% in September, though business lending rose more modestly. The external current account deficit narrowed significantly in the first half of 2025, bolstered by high global gold prices, a strong performance in non-gold exports, and steady remittance inflows. International reserves remain “ample,” covering roughly 12 months of projected imports.

The IMF forecasts GDP growth to exceed 7% in 2025, tapering to around 6% in 2026. Inflation is expected to gradually decline toward the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s 5% target by the end of 2027. Overall, the economic outlook is “broadly positive,” with risks described as “largely balanced.”

However, the IMF cautioned that stronger-than-expected revenues, particularly from gold exports, could lead to excessive government spending. To avoid overheating the economy, it advised limiting new expenditures, curbing real exchange rate appreciation, and reducing exposure to gold price volatility. The Uzbek government has reaffirmed its commitment to keeping the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP in both 2025 and 2026.

The mission urged authorities to broaden the tax base and raise the tax-to-GDP ratio. It welcomed the government’s planned medium-term revenue strategy and ongoing reforms to reduce the shadow economy and modernize the Tax Committee. Key recommendations include restricting new tax incentives, enhancing audit systems, and publishing annual tax expenditure reports to improve transparency.

On monetary policy, the IMF stressed the need to maintain a tight stance to drive inflation down. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has held its policy rate at 14% since March. The IMF welcomed the country’s move toward greater exchange rate flexibility, introduced in April.

The Fund also called for acceleration of financial sector reforms, including phasing out directed and preferential lending programs. It urged the finalization of a comprehensive roadmap to implement the 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program recommendations.

Structural reforms remain critical to sustaining long-term growth. The IMF emphasized the need to continue privatizing and restructuring major state-owned enterprises, improve governance, strengthen market competition, and prepare for World Trade Organization accession, targeted for March 2026.

The IMF concluded the mission by thanking Uzbek authorities for their cooperation, noting that the visit will not result in a formal Board discussion.

A year earlier, the IMF delivered similarly upbeat projections for Uzbekistan, citing 6.4% GDP growth in the first half of 2024, rising remittances, and solid reserves. However, it also warned of inflationary pressures from energy price reforms and underscored the need for continued structural reforms to shield the economy from external shocks.

28 Nov 2025

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EU Supports Connectivity Improvements in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan as Part of Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor

November 28, 2025
By Sergey Kwan

On November 27, Tashkent hosted the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC) and Connectivity Investors Forum, where representatives of the European Union, Central Asian and South Caucasus states, Türkiye, and international development banks reaffirmed the strategic importance of the TCTC as a fast and reliable route linking Europe and Asia.

The TCTC is the EU’s designation for the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. This multimodal route connects China and Southeast Asia to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye in no more than 15 days, offering an alternative to the northern route through Russia.

Participants discussed efforts to modernize both hard infrastructure, roads, railways, ports, and logistics hubs and soft connectivity, including digitalization, regulatory alignment, and trade facilitation.

According to the EU Delegation in Uzbekistan, the forum, attended by European Commissioner for International Partnerships Jozef Síkela and European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, produced several new agreements to enhance multimodal connectivity in Central Asia.

The EU has committed EUR 10.4 million within an EBRD loan of EUR 35 million to modernize Aktau Port in Kazakhstan, a key logistics hub on the Caspian Sea. The project will expand berths, introduce energy-efficient cranes, and increase container-handling capacity, strengthening the Middle Corridor’s competitiveness.

An envisaged EIB loan of EUR 150 million, backed by an EU guarantee of EUR 8.8 million, will support road rehabilitation in Kazakhstan. The financing for national operator KazAvtoZhol aims to improve sustainable transport infrastructure linked to the TCTC.

The EU will contribute EUR 15.46 million within an EBRD loan of EUR 35 million for the modernization of the Karabalta-Chaldovar road in Kyrgyzstan. Upgrading the 31.7-kilometer section will enhance connectivity between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, reduce travel time and costs, and improve road safety.

In Uzbekistan, an anticipated EIB loan of up to EUR 100 million, supported by an EU guarantee of EUR 6 million, will finance the Nukus Highway Development Project. The upgrade of 87 kilometers of the A380 highway, one of the country’s main transport arteries, is expected to strengthen regional trade and streamline transport flows with neighboring states.

Speaking at the forum, Commissioner Marta Kos stressed the geopolitical and economic value of reliable east-west transport links: “All of us have learnt the hard way that excessive dependencies make us vulnerable,” she said. “Investments in transport infrastructure, digital and energy connectivity create more options and less risk of blackmail. We need credible, long-term alternatives to the Northern Corridor. Cargo along the Middle Corridor has grown four-fold between 2022 and today. By 2030 it could again triple, if the right investments are made to increase capacity and close gaps.”