• KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00193 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10811 -0.28%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
10 December 2025

Tajik Border Guards Deploy Drones to Intercept Afghan Smugglers

Tajikistan’s border service has reported the elimination of a group of drug smugglers attempting to cross into the country from Afghanistan, according to a broadcast by Tajik state television on November 22.

The State Committee for National Security stated that the incident occurred late on November 20 in the Hamadoni district, where border guards detected an illegal crossing at 22:50. Afghan smugglers were located and targeted using a domestically produced drone, marking the first time Tajik border forces have used locally developed unmanned aerial technology in such an operation.

Authorities said that on the morning of November 21, officers discovered the bodies of two Afghan nationals at the site, along with five sacks containing 116 packages of narcotics. The fate of the other members of the group remains unclear, as the report did not specify whether they were detained or escaped.

State television noted an uptick in confrontations with Afghan drug traffickers over the past six months. The border service recorded ten armed incidents during this period, up from six in the first half of 2024. Four Afghan citizens were killed in these encounters. Most clashes occurred near Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, a region where smugglers are known to carry weapons and modern equipment.

Tajikistan continues to serve as a critical transit route for narcotics originating in Afghanistan. In the first half of 2025, authorities seized 1.69 tons of drugs in border regions, accounting for more than half of all narcotics confiscated nationwide.

Officials attribute the increased smuggling activity to ongoing instability in Afghanistan, which has prompted Tajikistan to tighten border security and deepen international cooperation in anti-narcotics efforts.

From Glaciers to Green Goals: Central Asia at COP30

The UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, concluded with a hard-fought global deal that boosts climate finance for developing countries but avoids any promise to phase out fossil fuels. Amid this uneasy compromise, the Central Asian nations worked to get their priorities heard. Their delegations pressed for more climate funding, recognition of their unique vulnerabilities, and support for regional initiatives, with mixed results.

A United Regional Voice on Climate

Home to over 80 million people, Central Asia entered COP30 with a goal outlined as “five countries, one voice,” after a regional dialogue in Dushanbe ahead of the summit forged a common stance on shared threats such as melting glaciers and water stress. The region has already warmed about 2.2 °C – faster than the global average – and glaciers are shrinking by roughly 0.5% each year, Uzbekistan’s environment minister Aziz Abdukhakimov warned in Belém. He noted worsening land degradation and vanishing water resources, underscoring Central Asia’s acute climate vulnerability. In response, Uzbekistan unveiled a new pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2035 (from 2010 levels) by expanding renewable energy and forests. Such actions align with COP30’s call for developed nations to triple adaptation finance by 2035 to help vulnerable countries cope. “COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in his closing speech, praising delegates for persisting despite global divisions.

National Commitments and Initiatives

Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy and emitter, took on a visible role at COP30. Its delegation was led by Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev, who addressed the summit’s opening session. Nyssanbayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to the Paris Agreement goals, noting the country has adopted a “Revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and a National Adaptation Plan” with more ambitious targets to cut emissions and bolster resilience. “It is crucial for us to consistently work toward achieving our climate goals,” he stated.

Nyssanbayev emphasized the importance of climate finance for developing countries, highlighting the new “Baku–Belém Roadmap” to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and urging support for a significantly increased funding mechanism.  Kazakhstan also became one of only seven nations – and the sole Central Asian country – to sign a joint declaration pledging “near zero” methane emissions from its fossil fuel sector. In a sign of ongoing regional leadership, Nyssanbayev invited all delegates to attend a Central Asia Regional Environmental Summit that Kazakhstan will host in 2026, aiming to sustain climate cooperation beyond COP30.

Kyrgyzstan, given its geography, used the summit to champion the mountain agenda and the plight of high-altitude communities on the frontlines of climate change. The Kyrgyz Republic chairs the UNFCCC’s Mountain Group and sent a delegation led by Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Edil Baisalov, and Dinara Kemelova, the President’s Special Representative for the Mountain Agenda. In the first week of COP30, Kemelova delivered keynote remarks at multiple high-level sessions, calling for strengthened international support and financing for mountain regions. She emphasized that Central Asia’s “water towers” – its glaciers and snowpack – are rapidly receding, threatening water supplies and biodiversity, and requiring coordinated action by all UNFCCC parties.

On November 14, Kyrgyzstan convened multilateral consultations on mountains and climate change, an initiative that drew backing from over 30 countries and highlighted Kyrgyzstan’s leadership alongside partners with similar geography, including Nepal and Bhutan, to push for greater global recognition of mountain-specific climate risks. While its proposal to establish a Mountain Resilience Hub in Bishkek remains under discussion, the delegation reported growing international support for coordinated action and increased adaptation finance focused on glacier-dependent regions.

A tangible outcome was the signing of a $250 million “Glacier to Farm” project agreement between the Asian Development Bank and Green Climate Fund, aimed at helping farmers and communities in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Pakistan adapt to glacier melt and water stress.

Tajikistan – with over 93% of its terrain dominated by mountains – arrived at COP30 focused on protecting glaciers and water resources. In the first week of the summit, Bakhodur Sheralizoda, head of Tajikistan’s Committee for Environmental Protection, cited outcomes from the UN-backed High-Level International Conference on the Preservation and Protection of Glaciers, held in Dushanbe in May 2025. Sheralizoda told delegates that over 1,000 glaciers in Tajikistan have disappeared in recent decades and warned of severe regional water stress. Despite contributing minimally to global emissions, Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to changes in glacial runoff and river flow.

At COP30, the delegation presented its national “Green Tajikistan” program, which aims to plant two billion trees by 2040 to combat erosion, restore degraded land, and sequester carbon. Sheralizoda also highlighted Tajikistan’s success in having 2025 declared the UN International Year of Glacier Preservation, urging stronger global commitments to fund climate adaptation and cryosphere research.

Uzbekistan used the summit to showcase new climate targets and policy progress. Delegates reported that the country has submitted an updated NDC as part of its long-term strategy to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The revised NDC outlines stronger commitments tied to Uzbekistan’s “Green” Economy framework, including plans to expand renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, and restore degraded land. That pledge includes a target of 12,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 and plans to double energy efficiency across key sectors.

In Belém, Uzbekistan also promoted its national afforestation initiative, which is seeking to expand forest cover to 6.1 million hectares, including in the degraded Aral Sea zone, and increase protected areas to 14.5% of national territory. The Uzbek delegation emphasized the need for climate finance to support these projects and called for international partnerships to accelerate implementation.

Turkmenistan, one of the world’s largest methane emitters, participated in COP30 as part of the Central Asian bloc. While the country did not announce new targets, its delegation engaged in discussions on methane reduction and water resource management. Although Turkmenistan has not joined the Global Methane Pledge, it has taken nascent steps and has begun work with UNEP and the Global Methane Initiative to assess and mitigate emissions from its energy sector. Its participation in regional climate meetings signals a growing awareness of the risks it faces and the international scrutiny it draws. Turkmen officials voiced support for continued dialogue on water security and renewable energy in Central Asia.

In 2023, Turkmenistan published its first National Youth Climate Statement with support from the UN, reflecting growing public engagement on climate issues and younger generations’ calls for sustainable development and resilience.

Calls for Support and Next Steps

Throughout the summit, the Central Asian countries called for expanded international support. The final COP30 agreement encourages developed nations to triple adaptation finance by 2035, a provision regional leaders welcomed, given their shared exposure to glacial loss, drought, and extreme heat.

Regional efforts such as the Central Asia Climate Dialogue and the Regional One Health Coordination Council – which links environmental and health sectors – have gained momentum in recent years, and were referenced by stakeholders in COP30 side events. They also stressed that collective financing and technology transfers are essential if their countries are to meet targets under the Paris Agreement.

In his address, Kyrgyz Minister of Natural Resources, Meder Mashiev, underscored the country’s specific challenge, stating that Kyrgyzstan is a country with “low emissions but high climate vulnerability.” While other Central Asian nations face different climate pressures, from the high Pamirs to the Aral Sea basin, the overriding message emanating from Central Asia in Belém was clear: they are committed to action, but can’t do it alone.

ADB Commits $10 Billion to CAREC, $700 Million to Kyrgyzstan

At the 24th Ministerial Conference of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program held in Bishkek on November 20, Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Masato Kanda announced a commitment of more than $10 billion in financing through 2030 to strengthen regional integration, connectivity, and resilience.

The CAREC Program brings together 11 member countries – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – along with international development partners, to promote sustainable economic growth through regional cooperation. Since its inception in 2001, CAREC has mobilized approximately $54 billion in funding for regional projects. The ADB serves as the host institution for the CAREC Secretariat.

“Our vision for CAREC is clear: a region that is economically resilient, environmentally sustainable, socially inclusive, and digitally connected,” Kanda said in his keynote address. “We are scaling up support with over $10 billion in financing through 2030. These projects will catalyze greater integration, resilience, and shared growth.”

During the conference, ministers endorsed the Bishkek Declaration, initiating formal negotiations on trade and investment facilitation. The initiative aims to reduce cross-border barriers, increase investment flows, and promote cooperation in emerging areas such as digital trade and the green economy.

On the sidelines of the conference, Kanda met with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov to reaffirm ADB’s commitment to Kyrgyzstan’s development goals. ADB plans to provide over $700 million in financing for the country between 2025 and 2027. “The Kyrgyz Republic has shown remarkable commitment to building a greener, more connected, and resilient future,” Kanda said. “As the country’s largest multilateral development partner, ADB is ready to deepen support for national priorities and strengthen Kyrgyzstan’s role as a regional leader in connectivity and clean energy.”

Kanda also met with Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Ministry of Finance. The agreement outlines a new financing framework for 2026-2027 and includes three projects under the existing 2025 framework. These focus areas include green transformation, disaster resilience, and affordable housing.

Altogether, the 2025 and planned 2026-2027 packages will provide more than $700 million in ADB support for Kyrgyzstan. Upcoming projects will aim to boost energy efficiency and climate resilience in public infrastructure, enhance water resource management and disaster preparedness, and improve access to energy-efficient housing and affordable mortgage financing.

IMF Links High Inflation in Kazakhstan to Overheating Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has attributed rising inflation in Kazakhstan to signs of an overheated economy. In a mission conducted in early November, the IMF concluded that the country’s GDP growth is exceeding its real potential, thereby fueling inflationary pressure.

While economic activity remains robust, prices continue to climb. According to the IMF’s forecast, Kazakhstan’s real GDP is expected to grow by just over 6% in 2025, up from 5% in 2024. The main growth drivers are increased oil production and elevated domestic demand. The IMF estimates that inflation could reach nearly 13% by the end of the year.

Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy remains expansionary. Transfers from the National Fund are a key contributor: in 2024, more than $12.1 billion was withdrawn from the fund, including $10.8 billion in direct transfers to the republican budget and $1.3 billion for the purchase of shares and bonds of Kazakhstani issuers.

In 2025, the government plans to cut withdrawals from the National Fund nearly in half to $5.2 billion. However, the IMF warns that the non-oil budget deficit could still exceed 8% of GDP. Elevated demand, particularly from state-owned enterprises, has also contributed to a widening current account deficit, projected at 4% of GDP.

Despite a slowdown in consumer lending and stabilization in oil production, domestic demand is expected to remain high in 2026. The IMF forecasts GDP growth at 4.5%. Over the medium term, the new Tax Code is expected to help bring inflation down to the 5% target, while GDP growth moderates to a sustainable level of around 3.5%.

According to the National Statistics Bureau, year-on-year inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 12.9% in September 2025, easing slightly to 12.6% in October. Monthly inflation was reported at 0.5%.

The IMF highlighted several risks that could exacerbate inflationary pressures. These include falling oil prices, slower economic growth among key trading partners, potential disruptions to crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), delays in infrastructure projects, and sluggish fiscal consolidation.

Nevertheless, Kazakhstan continues to maintain one of the lowest levels of public debt in the world. At 24.8% of GDP, the country ranks 25th globally in terms of debt burden.

Kazakhstan Opens World-Class Geological Cluster in Zhezkazgan

Kazakhstan has inaugurated its first integrated geological cluster, positioning the country as a regional hub for cutting-edge mineral exploration. The Kazakhmys Geological Cluster, launched on November 21 in Zhezkazgan, the center of the nation’s geological industry, is the first facility of its kind in both Kazakhstan and Central Asia.

The cluster brings together all major geological exploration processes on a single site, supported by equipment found in only seven comparable centers globally.

The new facility features a training center and a state-of-the-art laboratory complex, enabling rapid geological analysis. It also houses Kazakhstan’s largest core storage facility, which will serve as the national archive of primary geological data.

Kazakhmys Corporation, one of the country’s leading mining companies, invested approximately 11 billion tenge into the project.

“We are launching infrastructure that makes Kazakhstan’s geological sector more precise, faster, and technologically advanced. From primary data storage and laboratory research to digital analysis and professional training, everything is integrated into one platform. This new level will ensure the sustainable development of the country’s mineral resource base,” said Nurakhmet Nuriyev, Chairman of the Board of Kazakhmys Corporation, during the opening ceremony.

The cluster is expected to advance the digitalization of Kazakhstan’s geological industry, enhance research capacity, and elevate the quality of mineral exploration nationwide.

As part of a broader vision, a new higher education institution, Ulytau University, will be established on the cluster grounds. The university will be developed in partnership with the Colorado School of Mines, one of the world’s top mining institutions. It will train specialists in geology, mineral engineering, and related disciplines.

A memorandum on the establishment of Ulytau University was signed between the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Kazakhstan and Kazakhmys Corporation. The Colorado School of Mines is expected to open its first international campus at the new university in Zhezkazgan, offering instruction in English and launching four core bachelor’s programs: Mining; Geology and Geological Exploration; Geophysical Engineering; and Petroleum Engineering.

Central Asia’s Road to the Southern Seas: A Search for Stability

India has confirmed that it received a six-month sanctions waiver from the United States for its involvement in developing Iran’s Chabahar port. According to The Times of India, the decision followed intensive diplomacy by New Delhi, which convinced Washington that Chabahar provides India’s only practical overland access to Central Asia that avoids Pakistan.

Through Chabahar, India is building a land-based counterpart to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, creating an alternative axis linking the Indian Ocean with Eurasia while bypassing Islamabad and Beijing. The exemption, valid until April 2026, gives India room to negotiate with Washington.

For Central Asia, the episode reflects a broader challenge: choosing viable routes to the southern seas. Current debates about “Afghan transit” focus largely on the Trans-Afghan Railway and the so-called Kabul corridor connecting northern Afghanistan with Pakistan’s ports. Yet Afghanistan’s transport network is forming along multiple lines. Alongside the eastern route, a western corridor from Herat to Kandahar and Spin Boldak is also developing, offering access both to Pakistan and to Chabahar.

The integration of western Afghanistan’s infrastructure with Iran’s transport network makes this corridor more reliable under today’s political and security conditions. It aligns with projects pursued by Iran, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan and positions Herat as a major hub. It is also close to the North–South Transport Corridor, the Lapis Lazuli and Middle Corridors, and the Caspian and Persian Gulf regions. The planned Mazar-i-Sharif–Herat line fits the logic of the Five Nations Railway Corridor, potentially giving Tajikistan and Uzbekistan access to Chabahar and, if stability improves, to Pakistan’s ports as well.

By contrast, the eastern route will remain constrained by the unstable Afghan–Pakistani border and the volatile relationship between Kabul and Islamabad. Afghanistan’s own priorities also differ from outside assumptions: the Herat–Kandahar–Spin Boldak line primarily serves as an internal transport spine linking the west and south. For Kabul, the route to Gwadar is more a political gesture than a practical goal. Some analysts note that developing the western corridor also helps rebalance the country’s economic geography toward its more diverse western regions.

These dynamics strengthen the western route’s appeal. The Taliban leadership has even urged Afghan businesses to reduce reliance on Pakistani ports, signaling a structural shift in trade orientation.

Both Chabahar and Gwadar face political risks. Pakistan’s transit routes pass through areas affected by insurgency, including Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as the broader narcotics routes of the Golden Crescent. The greatest uncertainty remains the fluctuating relationship between Kabul and Islamabad. Gwadar, while technologically superior, is undermined by chronic instability. Chabahar’s capacity is more modest, but its integration with Iran’s road and rail network provides reliability.

The United States adds another layer of complexity. The waiver suggests Washington is balancing its Iran sanctions regime with its strategic partnership with India. The United States is not directly involved in regional infrastructure but retains enough influence to shift the balance between the western and eastern routes. Under certain conditions, Gwadar may appear less problematic for Washington than Chabahar. At the same time, selective sanctions exemptions allow the United States to pressure Iran and maintain leverage over India.

Future waivers will depend more on political moods in Washington than on economic calculations. This dynamic resembles a form of managed competition in which India receives temporary waivers, Pakistan retains the possibility of renewed Western engagement, and Afghanistan and Central Asia gain a degree of flexibility.

Even so, the western route through Iran remains the most realistic and controllable option for Central Asia. The region’s states continue to invest in Afghan infrastructure and maintain dialogue, but will eventually need a unified strategy. A step in this direction came in August, when Central Asian envoys created a permanent platform, the Contact Group on Afghanistan. More important than the mechanism is the signal of greater regional coordination.

According to Nargiza Umarova, a researcher on regional cooperation based in Uzbekistan, Central Asia benefits from having multiple access points to southern ports while avoiding internal competition that could weaken its negotiating position. She argues that a coordinated policy is essential for advancing mutually beneficial transit corridors.

The growing diplomatic capacity of Central Asian countries suggests that the C5 can form a common stance on security and transit, though a formal “C5+” structure with Pakistan and Iran is still missing. Such a mechanism could support systematic coordination on transport, logistics, energy, and Trans-Afghan corridors.

For now, Chabahar stands out as the most viable foundation for Central Asia’s southern orientation. Its development, coupled with deeper regional cooperation, could encourage Pakistan and Afghanistan to adopt more pragmatic approaches and treat transport as a basis for mutual economic benefit. With broader support from global powers, the Afghan transit system, both western and eastern routes, could shift from competition to shared advantage.