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06 May 2025

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Kazakhstan Braces for Economic Fallout from OPEC+ Output Hike

May 7, 2025
By Aliya Haidar

The latest OPEC+ decision to boost oil production in a strained global market threatens to push Kazakhstan closer to recession and further inflation. On May 3, OPEC+ members agreed to a significant increase in oil output for June. Leading financial outlets, including Bloomberg, suggest that the move is intended to penalize member states that have consistently breached their production quotas, most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. The announcement triggered a sharp drop in oil prices.

Production will rise by 411,000 barrels per day in June, following a tripling of output in May from the originally planned volume. Analysts attribute the shift to Riyadh’s growing frustration with non-compliant members. According to Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official, Saudi Arabia aims to “financially wear down” these states while aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for lower energy prices.

Kazakhstan’s Overproduction at Tengiz

Despite repeated assurances from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy that they would honor OPEC+ agreements, the country exceeded its January quota by 32,000 barrels per day (bpd), producing 1.5 million bpd versus an allotted 1.468 million. This surge followed Tengizchevroil LLP’s launch of a new expansion phase at the Tengiz oil field in the Atyrau region, elevating output there to 870,000 barrels per day, 45% above the 2024 average. The expansion is expected to add 12 million tons annually to Tengiz’s crude production.

Tengizchevroil is a joint venture comprising Chevron (50%), ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGas (20%), and LUKOIL (5%).

Falling Prices and Criticism of OPEC’s Tactics

Following the OPEC+ announcement, Brent crude futures fell to $59.30 per barrel on May 5, with U.S. WTI at $56.19. Some analysts argue Kazakhstan is being unfairly targeted. As Reuters reports, Kazakhstan contributes only 5% of OPEC+ production and under 2% of global output.

Analysts at the Stankevicius Group note that larger producers such as the UAE, Russia, and Iraq have repeatedly breached quotas without facing similar scrutiny. They argue that Saudi Arabia’s surge in production undermines the cartel’s objectives more than Kazakhstan’s actions.

“Saudi Arabia, which has sharply increased its oil production, is causing even greater damage to the OPEC+ agreement by encouraging lower prices,” the analysts claimed. “In other words, Kazakhstan is maintaining a balance of interests and the interests of other cartel members. Meanwhile, other members are allowing themselves to disrupt the market balance.”

Planning for a Downturn

Oil revenues are central to Kazakhstan’s state budget, prompting government officials to prepare for a potential downturn. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin stated in April that contingency plans are being developed for scenarios where oil prices fall to $55 or even $50 per barrel.

However, the national budget is pegged to a $75 per barrel benchmark. According to analyst Murat Kastaev, social obligations make spending cuts politically infeasible, leaving the government reliant on increased transfers from the National Fund and a probable weakening of the tenge. While GDP growth could slow to 3-3.5% at current prices, a sustained drop to $40-50 per barrel may trigger a recession and significant currency devaluation.

“We hope it won’t come to that,” Kastaev said, “as prices below $50 threaten not only Kazakhstan’s economy but also the broader stability of the global market, including the interests of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.”

06 May 2025

Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Local Politics, Kyrgyzstan Local Politics

Tourist Season Officially Opens in Kyrgyzstan’s Issyk-Kul

May 6, 2025
By Anton Chipegin

An international fair of craftsmen and folk art opened in Cholpon-Ata, marking the official start of the tourist season in Issyk-Kul. The highlight of the event was a lively and competitive display of yurt assembly, drawing large crowds and showcasing Kyrgyz traditions.

Such fairs have become a key platform for Kyrgyz travel companies to promote their services and forge partnerships with tour operators from abroad.

“Today, Kyrgyzstan offers more than just a destination, we offer a tourism philosophy based on sustainability, respect for nature, and cultural diversity,” said Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov, reflecting the country’s broader tourism goals.

@gov.kg

Looking ahead, Japarov noted that by 2030, Central Asian countries may introduce a unified tourist visa. “Thanks to the goodwill of our presidents and peoples, we have recently been able to finally resolve border issues. Today, we are talking about creating a single tourist space in Central Asia. This initiative aims to enable foreign tourists to travel freely throughout the region, combining the routes, attractions, and cultural wealth of our countries in a single tourist package,” he said.

President Sadyr Japarov has also expressed support for a visa-free regime among Central Asian nations and the introduction of a regional visa akin to the Schengen model.

06 May 2025

Home, Business & Economy, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Business & Economy

Vietnamese Investment Group Eyes Airport Purchase in Kazakhstan

May 6, 2025
By Dmitry Pokidaev

Vietnam’s SOVICO Group, the new owner of Kazakh airline Qazaq Air, is considering acquiring or managing an airport in Kazakhstan, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin.

SOVICO Group, one of Vietnam’s leading investment conglomerates, operates across sectors including finance, aviation, energy, and digital transformation. The group also owns VietJet Air, an international low-cost airline with a fleet of 85 aircraft.

In 2024, SOVICO acquired Qazaq Air, a domestic carrier the Kazakh government had been trying to sell since 2023 for KZT 10.2 billion (approx. $19.7 million). However, the final sale price was significantly lower: KZT 2 billion (approx. $3.8 million), according to Transport Minister Marat Karabaev.

Qazaq Air currently serves 14 domestic routes, four of which are state-subsidized and four international destinations.

New Brand, Broader Ambitions

During a Kazakhstan-Vietnam business roundtable in Astana on Tuesday, it was announced that Qazaq Air will be rebranded as VietJet Kazakhstan. “We highly appreciate the intention of SOVICO Group and VietJet Air to manage Qazaq Air under the new brand,” said Nurlan Zhakupov, Chairman of the Board of Samruk-Kazyna JSC. “Expanding the route network will enhance regional connectivity and foster new economic growth.”

Zhumangarin mentioned that SOVICO Group is actively exploring options to either acquire or manage a Kazakh airport. “The company is large, rapidly expanding, and maintains numerous international partnerships. An airline needs a base airport, and they are considering establishing one here,” he said.

Strategic Infrastructure Interest

SOVICO has also signaled its interest in modernizing regional airport infrastructure, specifically in the Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions, a move seen as part of its broader strategy to expand operations in Central Asia.

In 2023, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and Vietnam reached nearly $1 billion, although it dipped slightly to $879 million by the end of 2024.

06 May 2025

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Drone Attacks Intensify Security Worries Over Moscow Anniversary Event

May 12, 2025
By Times of Central Asia

Concerns about the security of dignitaries are circulating ahead of Russia’s plans for May 9 celebrations in Moscow of the 80^th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, an event that leaders from Central Asia are expected to attend as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues.

The unease relates to Ukraine’s growing capacity in drone warfare, a dominant feature of the battlefield after years of war between Ukrainian troops and invading Russian forces. On Sunday, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said air defense forces in the urban area of Podolsk, on the outskirts of Moscow, “repelled an attack” by four drones flying toward the capital.

“According to preliminary data, there is no damage or casualties at the site of the fall of the debris. Emergency services specialists are working at the scene,” Sobyanin said on Telegram.

Overnight, Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow again, disrupting operations at four of the city’s airports. Sobyanin announced on Telegram that at least 19 Ukrainian drones were intercepted. Although no significant damage or injuries were immediately reported, debris from the intercepted drones landed on a major highway.

On April 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine from May 8 – 11 to coincide with the celebrations of victory in the Great Patriotic War, as the Soviet experience in World War II is called. But Ukraine rejected the proposal, saying it seems mainly designed to create a safe environment for its guests in Moscow and that a U.S-backed plan for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire would instead represent a serious step toward peace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine isn’t responsible for anyone’s safety on Russian territory on the day of the anniversary celebrations.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has warned of massive retaliation if Ukraine strikes Moscow during the May 9 event, saying on Telegram that “in the event of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one can guarantee that May 10 will come in Kyiv.”

An analyst who tracks drone technology, Russian military weapons development and related issues said Russia’s concern about the May 9 parade stems from Ukraine’s growing expertise in drones. “Ukrainian long-range drones can already strike across the entire [of] Russia’s European (west of Urals) territory,” Samuel Bendett, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses, said on X.

The city of Sevastopol in Russia-controlled Crimea won’t hold a Victory Day parade for security reasons, said city Gov. Mikhail Razvozhayev, according to Russia’s state-run news agency TASS. Sevastopol hasn’t held a parade in the last couple of years because of similar concerns. In 2014, Russian forces occupied and annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, where Ukraine has conducted periodic attacks with drones and other weapons since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Kremlin says Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Russia at Putin’s invitation on May 7-10 and will attend the Victory Day celebrations. Russian state media have reported that the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States, or CIS, will also attend. The CIS, a regional group that was set up as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, includes the Central Asian countries that were Soviet republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

On May 3, Putin and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan discussed trade and other issues including the treatment of Uzbek migrants in Russia. A Kremlin readout of the conversation said Mirziyoyev had confirmed he “would take part in the anniversary events to be held in Moscow;” the Uzbek presidency didn’t mention the May 9 celebrations in its summary of the talk.

05 May 2025

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As War Rages at Home, Sudanese Student Leaves Kazakhstan for Uncertain Future

May 5, 2025
By Times of Central Asia

A Sudanese student named Amir began studying at a university in Almaty, Kazakhstan in 2023, just a few months before rival military factions in his country launched a devastating civil war that, according to some estimates, has killed tens of thousands of people and forced more than 10 million to flee their homes.

For Amir, the war was the beginning of an extended period of uncertainty during which he faced financial problems, worried about his displaced family back home, unsuccessfully applied for refugee status in Kazakhstan, feared deportation to Sudan and even faced the possibility of living in limbo in the Almaty airport.

This weekend, a Kazakh human rights group said the situation of the Sudanese man had been “conditionally resolved positively for the moment” because authorities let him fly to an unspecified country that has visa-free entry for Sudanese nationals. Work on his case is expected to continue.

The Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law (KIBHR), a non-governmental group that was founded in 1993, had helped Amir during his ordeal. The group did not provide his surname but posted photos of the young man on Facebook. It thanked Almaty airport officials for helping to resolve difficult issues as well offices of UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency, in at least three countries.

The relative improvement in Amir’s situation follows a state of limbo whose roots lie in the war between the Sudanese military and a militia called the Rapid Support Forces, the latest episode of violence in a country that has experienced multiple coup attempts over the decades. The latest fighting set off a humanitarian crisis and allegations of ethnic cleansing and war crimes.

Amir “tried to obtain refugee status in Kazakhstan, but in practice, the country grants that status only in extremely rare cases,” said the human rights group KIBHR, which helped the Sudanese students with his unsuccessful appeals of the Kazakh court ruling against him.

“Under the court’s decision, Amir had to leave Kazakhstan by May 1, so concerned individuals raised money for a ticket to Rwanda — one of the few countries Sudanese citizens can enter without a visa,” KIBHR said. “However, something went wrong: they didn’t even take his documents for review and immediately deported him from the airport back to Qatar, through which he had traveled en route to Rwanda.”

In Doha airport, Amir was put on a flight back to Almaty, where authorities prepared to send him back to Qatar, according to the human rights group. But an airline refused to fly him to Qatar, leaving him stranded in Almaty and facing the possibility of deportation to Sudan.

“What saved the situation was the concern that Amir might harm himself during the flight or his condition might seriously deteriorate, and they were unable to provide an escort. As a result, he was allowed to fly to one of the countries (not specified) that still has visa-free entry for Sudanese nationals, and he was admitted there,” the human rights group.

In 2013, a Palestinian man lived at the Almaty airport for an extended period because the law didn’t allow him to get refugee status and he didn’t have a visa to travel anywhere else, according to media in Kazakhstan. The man’s limbo was reminiscent of the 2004 movie The Terminal, which stars Tom Hanks as a man who gets stuck at New York’s JFK airport after there is a military coup in his home country.

As of January this year, there are 646 refugees or asylum-seekers in Kazakhstan, most of them from Afghanistan and Ukraine, according to UNHCR.

The Kazakh government provides information about how to apply for refugee status.

05 May 2025

Central Asia, Tajikistan Justice, Home, Justice, Tajikistan, Tajikistan Features, Tajikistan Home, Features

OSCE, European Embassies Concerned About Media Freedom in Tajikistan

May 6, 2025
By Vagit Ismailov

A conference was held in Dushanbe to mark World Press Freedom Day, celebrated annually on May 3. Despite Tajikistan’s slight rise in the 2025 Press Freedom Index, international observers remain unconvinced that the situation in the country has improved.

Official ratings vs. real-world conditions

The event was organized by the media unit of the OSCE Office of Programs in Tajikistan, with support from Internews, the EU Delegation, and the embassies of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Discussions focused on the state of free speech, prospects for sustainable media development, and the role of women in journalism.

According to Reporters Without Borders, Tajikistan ranked 153rd out of 180 countries in 2025, an improvement of two places from the previous year. However, Nuriddin Karshiboev, chairman of the National Association of Independent Media of Tajikistan (NAIMT), argued that the ranking does not reflect the lived reality.

“The reality is different. The situation with freedom of expression and freedom of the press remains tense due to the prosecution of journalists, pressure on their relatives, self-censorship, and other factors,” he said.

Karshiboev also criticized the ineffectiveness of existing mechanisms to protect journalists and a lack of understanding among some international media-support organizations.

Freedom of speech is a right, not a privilege

EU Ambassador to Tajikistan Raimundas Karoblis emphasized that journalism should never be grounds for intimidation or imprisonment.

“No journalist should be subjected to intimidation or imprisonment for doing their job,” he told forum participants.

Karoblis underlined that freedom of expression is not a political stance or cultural nuance, but a universally recognized right.

“Freedom of expression in the media is a right, not a crime. The European Union’s protection of media freedom is not an external imposition. It is not a ‘European or Western value’ that can be exported or imposed, it is a universal human right recognized by all who believe in justice, dignity, and responsibility,” he said.

He added that independent media do not threaten social stability but rather form its cornerstone.

“Dynamic, independent media are not a threat to stability. They are the foundation of peace, democratic and economic progress,” Karoblis said, reaffirming the EU’s commitment to supporting journalists in Tajikistan and globally.

High-profile cases against journalists

In February 2025, Reporters Without Borders published a report highlighting increased repression of media figures in Tajikistan. One of the most notable cases involved freelance journalist Rukhshona Khakimova, who was sentenced to eight years in prison for treason following a closed trial. Her alleged offense was writing an analytical article on Chinese influence in Tajikistan. Khakimova is also the niece of an opposition politician sentenced to 18 years for an alleged coup attempt.

Another case involved Ahmad Ibrohim, editor-in-chief of the weekly Payk, who was arrested in August 2024 on charges of corruption, extortion, and extremism. His trial was also held behind closed doors. According to media reports, the case was triggered by an officer from the State Security Committee demanding a bribe in exchange for renewing the paper’s state registration. Despite prosecution witnesses failing to confirm his guilt, Ibrohim received a 10-year sentence.

Human rights advocates note a new wave of pressure on independent media since late 2022, with several journalists convicted in opaque trials. As of publication, nine journalists are reportedly imprisoned, more than in any other Central Asian country.

Rights organizations stress that despite marginal gains in international rankings, the press situation in Tajikistan continues to deteriorate. The international community has called for the immediate release of imprisoned journalists and an end to the pressure on independent media.