Kazakhstan’s Vast Coal Reserves Could Fuel Energy Needs for Centuries
Kazakhstan’s coal reserves are expected to last between 200 and 300 years, depending on the rate of extraction, according to an analytical study by the Caspian Commodity Exchange.
The study notes that Kazakhstan ranks among the world’s top ten countries for proven coal reserves, estimated at 25 to 33 billion tons, and eighth in terms of production. In 2023, the country produced 112.7 million tons of coal, followed by 109.8 million tons in 2024. Exports for those years totaled 31.9 million tons and 29.5 million tons, respectively. At current production rates, reserves could last for 300 years; if output increases, they would last at least 200 years.
About 25 companies operate in Kazakhstan’s coal sector, with 75% of production concentrated among four major players: Bogatyr Komir LLP (about 40% of the market), Euro-Asian Energy Corporation (EEC), Shubarkol Komir JSC, and Qarmet (formerly ArcelorMittal Temirtau JSC). Domestic consumption accounts for 72% of coal use, with the remainder exported, mainly to Russia, which takes about two-thirds of supplies. In 2023, Kazakhstan ranked among the top five coal suppliers to the EU, holding an 8.7% market share, according to the European Commission.
The power sector is the largest domestic consumer, using 59% of coal, followed by households (8%) and industry (5%). Coal makes up roughly 50% of the country’s primary energy consumption. In 2023, thermal power plants generated 77.4% of Kazakhstan’s electricity, with coal-fired plants providing 66% of that output. Coal is also the primary source of heat, covering 80% of demand. In Astana, coal-fired combined heat and power plants (CHPs) account for 97% of heat generation, while in Almaty the figure is 56%.
Coal combustion is responsible for about 70% of Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions, creating a challenge for the government’s target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Nonetheless, analysts forecast that coal will remain a key energy source in the medium term, accounting for 46% of the energy balance in 2035, down from 66% in 2023. Coal-based power generation is expected to decline by just 9% over that period.
Long-term projections point to a more significant decline in coal’s share, driven by the expansion of renewable energy, which is forecast to account for 24.4% of electricity generation by 2035 and 50% by 2050.
Another factor will be the commissioning of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, construction of which began last week, which will partially replace coal generation in the domestic market.