• KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00198 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10857 -0.18%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0%
05 December 2025

Amid Global Unrest, the Trans-Caspian Corridor Faces a Crucial Test

The COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and the ongoing shipping crisis in the Red Sea caused by Houthi attacks have severely disrupted global trade and logistics. These events have exposed the vulnerabilities of traditional supply chains and underscored the urgent need for diversification.

For countries along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), this presents a unique opportunity to solidify the corridor’s position as a key global logistics artery. But are they prepared to capitalize on this moment, and can the existing infrastructure sustain the rising flow of cargo?

Integration and Infrastructure in Focus

For landlocked nations, the value of an efficient overland route cannot be overstated. The development of the Trans-Caspian route depends on synchronized multimodal logistics, the elimination of infrastructure bottlenecks, the implementation of digital solutions, expedited customs procedures, and a transparent tariff policy. Experts note that the TITR has evolved from a transport project into a strategic initiative. Its future growth hinges on the quality of intergovernmental coordination.

In the past five years, transit volumes along the route have increased sixfold. The upward trend continues in 2025, with 2.6 million tons transported by rail in the first ten months alone. More than 400 types of goods now move along the corridor, including high-value items such as vehicles, electronics, clothing, and textiles. These products, which require timely delivery, signal the route’s growing integration into global supply chains.

Demand from Chinese shippers is also rising, with shipments expanding beyond China’s interior to include Southeast Asian countries. At the VII International Transport and Logistics Business Forum “New Silk Way,” Wang Lixin, Deputy Director General of China Railway, announced a new route under development: Southeast Asia-China-Central Asia-Europe.

Bottlenecks That Threaten Growth

A comprehensive audit conducted in mid-2025 revealed key barriers to expansion. In Kazakhstan, the primary constraint is railway capacity, currently limited to 12 container trains per day. National rail operator KTZ plans to raise this to 20 by 2027 through upgrades and new construction.

The maritime segment, particularly the Caspian Sea, remains a persistent risk. Aktau port can currently handle five trains, but the completion of the second phase of its container hub is expected to raise this to eight. The first phase alone will boost capacity by 140,000 TEU this year, bringing the port’s total capacity to 240,000 TEU.

However, falling water levels in the Caspian pose a serious challenge. In September 2025, Kazhydromet reported a drop to -29.31 meters off Kazakhstan’s coast, limiting shiploads and raising the threat of “shallow water restrictions.” In response, Kazakhstan has expedited dredging to restore design depths by the end of Q1 2026.

Fleet shortages compound the issue. Kazmortransflot operates just three 350 TEU container ships and two dry cargo vessels. In January 2025, the company signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi Ports Group to build shallow-draft container ships with over 500 TEU capacity and larger ferries. KTZ also plans to acquire six vessels (up to 9,000 tons deadweight) by 2027.

Challenges in Azerbaijan and Georgia

The western segment of the route faces similar constraints. Azerbaijan and Georgia’s rail networks can each accommodate only four container trains daily. The audit cited a shortage of fitting platforms in Azerbaijan and a lack of locomotives in Georgia. Both countries are scaling up investments: Azerbaijan is modernizing key railways, dredging at the port of Alat, and constructing a cargo terminal with a 500,000 container capacity.

Azerbaijan is also accelerating strategic infrastructure in response to regional shifts, most notably the Zangezur Corridor. Expected to shorten the route and add 15 million tons of annual capacity, the project gained momentum following an August 2025 declaration signed in Washington by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, with direct involvement from the U.S. President.

Implementation has begun: railway modernization is underway in Nakhchivan, and parallel development is ongoing at Alat port. Turkey is building its own segment between Kars and Nakhchivan, boosting the corridor’s regional impact.

Georgia, meanwhile, is focused on maritime infrastructure. Construction of the deep-water port of Anaklia is underway, scheduled for completion by 2029. The new harbor is expected to ease pressure on the overburdened port of Poti and significantly increase cargo capacity.

While these infrastructure initiatives vary in timeline from one to four years, a strategic question persists: will they be ready in time to match the rapidly growing cargo traffic?

Reaching the Infrastructure Ceiling

Over the past four years, the TITR has consistently grown but so have its limitations. According to international assessments, the route’s railway infrastructure has operated at full capacity since 2021. Forecasts from global financial institutions estimate traffic could reach 10-11 million tons by 2030. The issue is not demand, it’s whether the infrastructure can support it.

A critical weakness is the absence of a unified digital logistics platform. Each country currently uses separate systems, forcing shippers to duplicate procedures. This results in delays, higher costs, and a loss of competitiveness in the global logistics market.

Currently, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia jointly operate only four container trains per day. Doubling that to eight, the benchmark set by China, requires synchronized infrastructure and the elimination of administrative barriers, including the creation of “green corridors” for seamless transit.

Trade Imbalance and Tariff Uncertainty

Another persistent challenge is the imbalance of east-west versus west-east cargo flows. Chinese exports to Europe vastly outpace shipments in the reverse direction. Yerlan Koishibaev, Deputy Chairman for Logistics at JSC “NC ”KTZ,” notes that container platforms return empty from Aktau to Kazakhstan’s Altynkol border crossing.

World Bank data confirms the disparity: 300-500 million tons of cargo east-west versus only 180 million west-east. TITR members must better utilize the EU’s diversification strategy, which limits reliance on a single corridor to 60% of shipments, offering a chance to attract reverse flows.

Tariff stability is another critical factor. Current annual reviews create planning uncertainty. A long-term pricing policy would help build trust and stability, vital in an era of geopolitical volatility and corridor competition.

Strategic Importance Growing

The Trans-Caspian route has evolved into a viable artery for regional and global trade. It is being tested by geopolitical pressures even as those pressures create new openings for development. Its future hinges on deepened international coordination, policy alignment, and a shared vision for strategic growth among member states.

Turkish Cengiz Holding Plans $500 Million Investment in Kazakhstan’s Sugar Industry

Turkish industrial conglomerate Cengiz Holding has announced plans to invest $500 million in the construction of two sugar processing plants in Kazakhstan, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The announcement followed a meeting between Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov and Cengiz Holding board member Jengiz Shaban.

The proposed facilities would have a combined annual capacity of up to 300,000 tons of sugar. North Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions are under consideration as potential locations for the new factories.

The project has a 10-year investment horizon. Construction is expected to begin in 2026, with production to commence within two years. According to Shaban, the initiative aims to boost domestic sugar supply while also supporting the development of by-products such as animal feed, food ingredients, and industrial alcohol.

Saparov described the proposal as “strategically important” for Kazakhstan’s food security.

“The creation of new processing capacities and the formation of a sustainable raw material base are key priorities for the state,” he said.

The Ministry of Agriculture reports that Kazakhstan currently operates four sugar factories, three of which process domestically grown sugar beets. Despite this, annual consumption stands at approximately 500,000 tons, with local production meeting only 14% of national demand.

Earlier, another Turkish conglomerate, Safi Holding, also expressed interest in establishing a sugar processing facility in Kazakhstan.

The existing sugar factories include Aksu-Kant (Taldykorgan district), Koksu Sugar Factory (Almaty region), and the Merken and Taraz plants in Zhambyl region. Three of these process local sugar beets, while the Taraz facility relies on imported cane sugar. In 2024, Kazakhstan recorded a bumper sugar beet harvest of 1.2 million tons, yet only about 700,000 tons were processed, once again exposing deep-rooted inefficiencies in the sector.

Taliban Arrests Suspects After Deadly Attacks on Chinese Citizens Near Tajik-Afghan Border

The Taliban has announced the arrest of two suspects following two deadly attacks on Chinese workers in Tajikistan’s border regions, which left five dead and several others injured.

Afghan media, citing Taliban officials, reported that two individuals were detained in connection with the killings of Chinese nationals in Tajikistan. According to Ehsanullah Kamgar, a spokesperson for the Taliban’s security department in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, the arrests took place in the Maymay district. The identities of the suspects have not been disclosed.

Tajikistan’s security services believe that the militants crossed the border from this area before launching an assault in the Darvaz district on November 30. The attack targeted Chinese workers from a road construction company in the village of Shodak, killing two and injuring two more. Authorities said the assault occurred around 6:45 p.m. local time.

The border situation has deteriorated rapidly. Within one week, two armed attacks were carried out from Afghan territory targeting Chinese nationals in Tajikistan.

The first incident occurred on November 26 in the Shamsiddin Shokhin district, where three employees of the Shokhin-SM company were killed and one other was injured in a drone strike.

The second attack took place on November 30, when a terrorist group crossed from Ruzvayak, a village in Badakhshan, Afghanistan, and targeted workers from the China Road and Bridge Corporation. The outcome was again tragic: two Chinese workers were killed and two were wounded.

Tajik border guards emphasized that these attacks have occurred despite heightened security in the border regions.

“Criminal groups continue to destabilize the situation,” the border agency said in a statement.

Following the violence, the Chinese embassy in Dushanbe issued a strong demand for the Tajik authorities to “take all necessary measures” to protect Chinese citizens and employees of companies operating near the Afghan border.

On December 1, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon convened an emergency meeting with the heads of the country’s law enforcement agencies. He “strongly condemned the illegal and provocative actions of Afghan citizens” and ordered tighter security controls to prevent further cross-border attacks.

Kazakhstan’s World Champion Boxer Alimkhanuly Faces Doping Scandal Ahead of Title Unification Bout

Kazakhstan’s middleweight world boxing champion Zhanibek Alimkhanuly is embroiled in a doping scandal less than a week before the most significant fight of his career — a unification bout for three championship titles against Cuba’s Erislandy Lara. A positive test for the banned substance meldonium has thrown his career into jeopardy and may cost him at least one of his two belts.

The 29 year-old currently holds the WBO and IBF middleweight titles. He was awarded the WBO belt in 2022 after Demetrius Andrade declined to face him and secured the IBF title in 2023 with a knockout win over Germany’s Vincenzo Gualtieri. Alimkhanuly had since declared his ambition to become the undisputed champion by unifying all the major middleweight belts. His bout with Lara, the WBA titleholder, was scheduled for December 7 and was seen as a crucial step toward that goal.

However, on Tuesday evening, news emerged that Alimkhanuly had tested positive for meldonium, a substance banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) since 2016. Studies cited by WADA in 2015 indicated that meldonium enhances endurance, accelerates recovery, and impacts the central nervous system.

Under the rules of the Voluntary Anti-Doping Association (VADA), Alimkhanuly has 10 days to request analysis of the “B” sample. Regardless, the fight with Lara has been canceled. The Cuban boxer has already agreed to a new matchup against Venezuelan fighter Johan Gonzalez.

The World Boxing Organization (WBO) announced it had initiated administrative proceedings and would allow Alimkhanuly’s team to present evidence.

“The WBO anti-doping program operates on the principle of strict liability… the athlete is fully responsible for the substances found in his body,” WBO President Gustavo Olivieri said on social media platform X.

Alimkhanuly’s team expressed shock at the test results and has called for a retest.

“The reason for our surprise is that we first received information about a clean sample, and then about a controversial moment in the second one. We didn’t change anything between tests, neither diet nor vitamins. We cannot understand how this could have happened,” the team stated.

They confirmed that lawyers and independent experts are now involved, and that testing of the “B” sample is underway.

The scandal marks the second high-profile doping case in Central Asian boxing within a short span. Olympic champion Lazizbek Mullojonov of Uzbekistan was recently handed a three-year suspension for violating anti-doping regulations.

Russia Revives Plan to Redirect Siberian Rivers as Central Asia Faces Worsening Water Crisis

The long-contested idea of diverting Siberian rivers to Central Asia has re-emerged after the Russian Academy of Sciences announced on November 14 that it is studying a new version of the project. The updated proposal revives elements of a Soviet-era plan from the 1970s and 1980s that aimed to channel water from the Ob River basin to arid regions of Central Asia. This time, however, the focus is on a closed pipeline system, rather than open canals, to transport large volumes of water to countries facing acute shortages, particularly Uzbekistan, according to Fergana News.

Discussions within the Russian Academy had reportedly already begun prior to the announcement. Researchers are now calling on Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education to include a full study of the project in its state research plan. They argue that Central Asia is entering a critical phase of water scarcity that demands long-term strategic solutions.

The renewed interest comes amid escalating water stress across the region. Rapid population growth, retreating glaciers, and intensifying irrigation demands have pushed existing water systems to their limits. While some view the proposed pipeline as a potential lifeline for stabilizing regional water supplies, environmental concerns remain central to the debate, echoing the very reasons the original project was shelved.

A Long History of Controversy

The idea of redirecting northern rivers is not new. It was first proposed in the 19th century by Ukrainian-born engineer Yakov Demchenko, who envisioned transferring water from the Ob and Irtysh rivers to replenish the shrinking Aral Sea.

In the Soviet period, the concept gained political traction. By the late 1960s, it had entered official planning discussions, prompting detailed studies by the Academy of Sciences, the State Planning Committee, and the Ministry of Water Resources. In 1970, the project was formally designated a state priority, with plans for transferring up to 25 cubic kilometers of water annually.

Extensive technical documentation was produced, and construction began on supporting infrastructure, including the Irtysh-Karaganda canal. Designs for the main channel envisioned a span of more than 2,500 kilometers and a capacity exceeding 1,000 cubic meters per second. However, by 1986, the project was halted due to mounting economic pressures, scientific opposition, and growing awareness of potential environmental risks.

Experts warned of large-scale flooding, disruptions to groundwater, damage to fish stocks, displacement of Indigenous communities, and unpredictable impacts on permafrost and regional climate systems.

Renewed Debate in a Region Under Stress

Though shelved in the late Soviet era, the project has resurfaced multiple times since the collapse of the USSR. Former Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov advocated for its revival in 2002, and Russian and Kazakh presidents discussed it publicly in 2010. Yet concerns about environmental and geopolitical ramifications have consistently stalled progress.

Meanwhile, the water crisis in Central Asia has only deepened. Glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains which feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers have shrunk by more than 25% in recent decades. The region’s population has grown to approximately 80 million, nearly 50% higher than in the early 1990s and continues to climb.

Despite this, water management remains inefficient. Agriculture and industry remain heavily dependent on outdated irrigation systems that waste up to half of the water they use annually. Efforts to modernize have been slow, and persistent disputes among Central Asian states over water sharing further hinder cooperation.

Some rivers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have already lost between 40% and 70% of their flow. In many downstream areas, the remaining water is too saline for drinking or agriculture. Roughly 13% of the region’s population currently lacks access to safe drinking water.

New Challenges from Afghanistan

The pressure is being compounded by developments in Afghanistan. The Taliban administration is constructing the 285-kilometer Qosh Tepa canal to divert water from the Amu Darya. Once completed, the canal could reroute up to 10 cubic kilometers of water per year potentially reducing flow to already stressed downstream users in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

As the crisis worsens, proponents of the Siberian water transfer see the revived project as a possible strategic solution. However, critics warn that the same environmental and political pitfalls that derailed earlier attempts remain unresolved and may have only intensified in the decades since.

Kyrgyzstan Launches Environmental Strategy for Lake Issyk-Kul

On December 2, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept for the Sustainable Development of the Ecological and Economic System of Lake Issyk-Kul until 2030, along with a corresponding Action Plan. The initiative aims to protect the lake and its surrounding biosphere from intensifying environmental and human pressures, while ensuring long-term economic resilience in the region.

Located in northeastern Kyrgyzstan, Issyk-Kul is the country’s largest lake, a unique ecological reserve, and one of Central Asia’s main tourist destinations. However, the newly adopted Concept reflects growing concerns over environmental degradation and the urgent need for coordinated management. Based in part on a government technical assessment, the strategy outlines a comprehensive roadmap to stabilize the lake’s ecosystem, modernize critical infrastructure, and mitigate climate risks.

Climate Threats and Water Imbalance

A key priority of the Concept is enhanced monitoring of Lake Issyk-Kul and its surrounding basin, particularly its water and energy resources. Climate change, including glacial retreat and reduced river inflow, has placed the basin under mounting stress. Of the 957 glaciers in the Issyk-Kul basin, covering 560.8 square kilometers, many are melting at an accelerated rate. Although roughly 120 rivers flow into the lake, only 80 reach it during summer due to irrigation withdrawals.

To restore hydrological balance, the government plans to introduce modern irrigation technologies across 100,000 hectares of farmland. Officials estimate this could redirect up to 200 million cubic meters of water back into the lake each year.

Between 1927 and 2003, Issyk-Kul’s water level fell by 2.75 meters, driven by declining inflow, outdated monitoring systems, and inefficient water use. The new Concept calls for restoring hydrological infrastructure, including groundwater observation stations and river hydro-posts. It also proposes strict accounting of irrigation water and a shift toward water-saving technologies in agriculture.

Combatting Wastewater and Pollution

Untreated wastewater remains one of the most severe threats to the lake’s ecosystem. Discharges from settlements, hotels, and tourism facilities have polluted the lake for years. The Concept aims to modernize wastewater treatment plants, expand sewage networks, and promote the reuse of treated water for irrigation purposes.

Over the past five years, 47 new treatment facilities have been constructed in the Issyk-Kul region. The government now plans to reduce untreated wastewater discharge by 40%.

Industrial Risks and Waste Management

Environmental oversight of industrial activity, particularly at the Kumtor gold mine, the country’s largest, is another priority. The Concept calls for stricter regulation of hazardous waste and the rehabilitation of mining tailings to protect soil, groundwater, and the lake itself.

Solid waste management is also being addressed. In October 2025, China’s Hunan Junxin Environmental Protection Co. Ltd. began building a waste-to-energy incineration plant in Karakol, the region’s administrative center. This will be the company’s third facility in Kyrgyzstan, following earlier projects in Bishkek and Osh. The introduction of separate waste collection systems is seen as key to reducing landfill pressure and minimizing environmental damage.

To address air quality, the Concept promotes modernization of outdated heating systems, emission controls on industry and transport, and the adoption of cleaner technologies across economic sectors.

Regulating Growth and Tourism

Economic activity in the Issyk-Kul region, including agriculture, real estate, and infrastructure, is expanding rapidly. The Concept proposes new environmental standards, mandatory impact assessments, and incentives for businesses to adopt sustainable practices.

Tourism, while vital to the regional economy, is a growing environmental burden. The government intends to tighten oversight of tourist infrastructure and enforce ecotourism standards at all recreational facilities, aiming to balance economic development with environmental protection.