Amid Global Unrest, the Trans-Caspian Corridor Faces a Crucial Test
The COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and the ongoing shipping crisis in the Red Sea caused by Houthi attacks have severely disrupted global trade and logistics. These events have exposed the vulnerabilities of traditional supply chains and underscored the urgent need for diversification.
For countries along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), this presents a unique opportunity to solidify the corridor’s position as a key global logistics artery. But are they prepared to capitalize on this moment, and can the existing infrastructure sustain the rising flow of cargo?
Integration and Infrastructure in Focus
For landlocked nations, the value of an efficient overland route cannot be overstated. The development of the Trans-Caspian route depends on synchronized multimodal logistics, the elimination of infrastructure bottlenecks, the implementation of digital solutions, expedited customs procedures, and a transparent tariff policy. Experts note that the TITR has evolved from a transport project into a strategic initiative. Its future growth hinges on the quality of intergovernmental coordination.
In the past five years, transit volumes along the route have increased sixfold. The upward trend continues in 2025, with 2.6 million tons transported by rail in the first ten months alone. More than 400 types of goods now move along the corridor, including high-value items such as vehicles, electronics, clothing, and textiles. These products, which require timely delivery, signal the route’s growing integration into global supply chains.
Demand from Chinese shippers is also rising, with shipments expanding beyond China’s interior to include Southeast Asian countries. At the VII International Transport and Logistics Business Forum “New Silk Way,” Wang Lixin, Deputy Director General of China Railway, announced a new route under development: Southeast Asia-China-Central Asia-Europe.
Bottlenecks That Threaten Growth
A comprehensive audit conducted in mid-2025 revealed key barriers to expansion. In Kazakhstan, the primary constraint is railway capacity, currently limited to 12 container trains per day. National rail operator KTZ plans to raise this to 20 by 2027 through upgrades and new construction.
The maritime segment, particularly the Caspian Sea, remains a persistent risk. Aktau port can currently handle five trains, but the completion of the second phase of its container hub is expected to raise this to eight. The first phase alone will boost capacity by 140,000 TEU this year, bringing the port’s total capacity to 240,000 TEU.
However, falling water levels in the Caspian pose a serious challenge. In September 2025, Kazhydromet reported a drop to -29.31 meters off Kazakhstan’s coast, limiting shiploads and raising the threat of “shallow water restrictions.” In response, Kazakhstan has expedited dredging to restore design depths by the end of Q1 2026.
Fleet shortages compound the issue. Kazmortransflot operates just three 350 TEU container ships and two dry cargo vessels. In January 2025, the company signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi Ports Group to build shallow-draft container ships with over 500 TEU capacity and larger ferries. KTZ also plans to acquire six vessels (up to 9,000 tons deadweight) by 2027.

Challenges in Azerbaijan and Georgia
The western segment of the route faces similar constraints. Azerbaijan and Georgia’s rail networks can each accommodate only four container trains daily. The audit cited a shortage of fitting platforms in Azerbaijan and a lack of locomotives in Georgia. Both countries are scaling up investments: Azerbaijan is modernizing key railways, dredging at the port of Alat, and constructing a cargo terminal with a 500,000 container capacity.
Azerbaijan is also accelerating strategic infrastructure in response to regional shifts, most notably the Zangezur Corridor. Expected to shorten the route and add 15 million tons of annual capacity, the project gained momentum following an August 2025 declaration signed in Washington by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, with direct involvement from the U.S. President.
Implementation has begun: railway modernization is underway in Nakhchivan, and parallel development is ongoing at Alat port. Turkey is building its own segment between Kars and Nakhchivan, boosting the corridor’s regional impact.
Georgia, meanwhile, is focused on maritime infrastructure. Construction of the deep-water port of Anaklia is underway, scheduled for completion by 2029. The new harbor is expected to ease pressure on the overburdened port of Poti and significantly increase cargo capacity.
While these infrastructure initiatives vary in timeline from one to four years, a strategic question persists: will they be ready in time to match the rapidly growing cargo traffic?
Reaching the Infrastructure Ceiling
Over the past four years, the TITR has consistently grown but so have its limitations. According to international assessments, the route’s railway infrastructure has operated at full capacity since 2021. Forecasts from global financial institutions estimate traffic could reach 10-11 million tons by 2030. The issue is not demand, it’s whether the infrastructure can support it.
A critical weakness is the absence of a unified digital logistics platform. Each country currently uses separate systems, forcing shippers to duplicate procedures. This results in delays, higher costs, and a loss of competitiveness in the global logistics market.
Currently, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia jointly operate only four container trains per day. Doubling that to eight, the benchmark set by China, requires synchronized infrastructure and the elimination of administrative barriers, including the creation of “green corridors” for seamless transit.
Trade Imbalance and Tariff Uncertainty
Another persistent challenge is the imbalance of east-west versus west-east cargo flows. Chinese exports to Europe vastly outpace shipments in the reverse direction. Yerlan Koishibaev, Deputy Chairman for Logistics at JSC “NC ”KTZ,” notes that container platforms return empty from Aktau to Kazakhstan’s Altynkol border crossing.
World Bank data confirms the disparity: 300-500 million tons of cargo east-west versus only 180 million west-east. TITR members must better utilize the EU’s diversification strategy, which limits reliance on a single corridor to 60% of shipments, offering a chance to attract reverse flows.
Tariff stability is another critical factor. Current annual reviews create planning uncertainty. A long-term pricing policy would help build trust and stability, vital in an era of geopolitical volatility and corridor competition.
Strategic Importance Growing
The Trans-Caspian route has evolved into a viable artery for regional and global trade. It is being tested by geopolitical pressures even as those pressures create new openings for development. Its future hinges on deepened international coordination, policy alignment, and a shared vision for strategic growth among member states.
