When President Vladimir Putin arrives in Dushanbe on 8 October for his first state visit, Tajikistan will briefly become the focal point of regional diplomacy. Currently holding the rotating chair of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Dushanbe is preparing to host both the CIS Heads of State Council and the second Russia–Central Asia summit. For Moscow, Central Asia has remained a priority since the invasion of Ukraine, and the visit highlights what is at stake for both Russia and its host. Tajikistan depends heavily on Russia for security, trade, and employment opportunities for its citizens, but relations have been tested by the aftermath of the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, which exposed the fragility of migration-driven economics and the risk of renewed extremism.

An Old Relationship Tested by New Tensions

Russia and Tajikistan have been closely entwined since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin has already made twelve trips to Tajikistan since taking office, and this will be his first with state‑visit status. Security cooperation remains the backbone of the relationship. Russia’s 201^st military base in Tajikistan – formerly the 201^st motor rifle division and now Moscow’s largest overseas facility – has long been billed as a shield along the Afghan frontier; the two sides continue to coordinate through the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), and within the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) framework.

Trade between the two nations has expanded despite sanctions headwinds. On the eve of the visit, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said bilateral turnover rose by more than 17 % in the first seven months of 2025, and reached about US$1.5 billion in 2024. Russia accounts for over 22 % of Tajikistan’s foreign trade. Meanwhile, more than 1.2 million Tajik citizens work in Russia, making up about 16 % of all foreign workers there. They remitted US$1.8 billion back home last year, roughly 17 % of Tajikistan’s GDP. This symbiosis means that the two leaders routinely discuss labor migration and social issues alongside security and trade.

Yet the relationship has been strained by a wave of xenophobia following the Crocus City Hall attack, which killed 145 people, which the Russian authorities accused militants from Tajikistan of perpetrating. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, following the arrest of four Tajik suspects, Central Asian migrants in Russia have faced arson attacks, beatings, and boycotts of their businesses. Russian law enforcement has launched aggressive street inspections and created special units to check hostels and businesses frequented by Central Asians. Even long‑time Tajik residents with Russian citizenship have reported menacing phone calls and threats. In the wake of the attack, diaspora leaders urged compatriots not to leave their homes, and the Tajik interior ministry publicly rebutted Russian media reports, stating that three of the four suspects named were not involved.

Those pressures hit a country heavily reliant on remittances. The World Bank’s 2025 update estimates that money sent home by migrants accounted for 49 % of Tajikistan’s GDP in 2024. Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russian politicians and media have become increasingly hostile toward Central Asian migrants, leading Moscow to deactivate all foreign‑owned SIM cards and mandate biometric data collection for foreigners. Another rule introduced on June 30, 2025, requires citizens of visa‑free countries to pre-register in the Gosuslugi RuID app before entering Russia. Tajikistan has yet to outline a clear plan for reintegrating returning workers beyond its long‑range “Migration Regulation Strategy until 2040,” but with remittances central to household welfare, officials face limited room to maneuver.

The Economic Lifeline – And Trap – Of Remittances

Labor migration to Russia has become a structural feature of Tajikistan’s economy. These funds keep domestic consumption afloat, bolster the tax base, and underpin social stability in a country where exports cover only a fraction of import needs. Remittances, therefore, help close a chronic trade gap, but reliance on them also exposes Tajikistan to external shocks. Discrimination and tightening legal rules in Russia leave migrants at risk of detention or deportation, while Dushanbe’s ability to shield its citizens abroad remains limited.

The Asian Development Bank has described migration as both a “lifeline” and a source of social vulnerability, urging stronger consular protection and diversification of labor markets. High unemployment, which hit 11.6% in December 2024, ensures that the flow continues, however. A fast-growing and youthful population further limits opportunities at home, leaving many families with little alternative but to send relatives abroad.

The war in Ukraine has added another layer of insecurity. Rights groups and independent media have documented how Central Asian migrants, including Tajiks, face pressure from the Russian authorities and recruiters to enlist in the armed forces, sometimes under threat of visa complications, job loss, or criminal charges, and in other cases with the inducement of expedited citizenship.

A Crackdown That Cuts Both Ways

From Moscow’s perspective, migrant labor remains indispensable even as enforcement tightens. Russia may have deported 50 % more migrants in the first half of 2024 than in the same period in 2023, but at the same time, business groups continue to warn of severe labor shortages. Official estimates suggest the Russian economy may require an additional 2.5–3 million workers by 2030 to sustain growth, a gap widened by wartime mobilization and demographic decline. President Putin himself has acknowledged the essential role of migrants in sectors such as construction and manufacturing, underscoring the contradiction between nationalist rhetoric and economic reality.

For Tajikistan, the clampdown is more than a financial risk. In October 2024, Prime Minister Qohir Rasulzoda publicly expressed concern over the “widespread violation of the fundamental rights and freedoms” of its citizens in Russia. Analysts warn that if large numbers of young men are forced to return home without jobs, they could become more vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups. ISIS-K, the faction that claimed responsibility for the Crocus City Hall attack, has already attracted dozens of Tajik fighters, fueling fears of a destabilizing feedback loop between repression abroad and radicalization at home.

Summit Diplomacy in Dushanbe

Against this backdrop, Tajikistan is rolling out the diplomatic red carpet. On 9 October, Putin will attend the Central Asia–Russia summit with the presidents of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. According to Ushakov, discussions will focus on further cooperation in the trade, economic, financial, investment, industrial, logistics, and energy spheres, alongside regional security concerns linked to Afghanistan and the Middle East. A concluding communiqué is expected to set joint priorities for 2025–2027 in politics, trade, transport, security, migration, and ecology.

On October 10, Dushanbe will host the CIS Heads of State Council, bringing together leaders from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Drafts circulated ahead of the meeting point to a wide-ranging agenda, including the adoption of a concept for military cooperation through 2030, new programs for combating terrorism and extremism (2026‑2028), strengthening border security (2026‑2030), and a joint statement on fighting transnational crime. Leaders will also consider a declaration on regional energy security, a plan for multilevel inter‑ministerial consultations in 2026, and an initiative to grant the SCO observer status within the CIS.

One innovation on the table is the proposed creation of “CIS Plus,” a platform that would allow third countries and international organizations to participate in selected CIS events. Ushakov told reporters that the leaders will explore this idea as a way to open dialogue with outside partners. Belarusian officials, meanwhile, added that declarations marking the 80th anniversary of the United Nations and the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster will be adopted, underscoring the CIS’s desire to align with global commemorations.

Putin and Rahmon: Bilateral Priorities

Alongside the multilateral meetings, Putin’s state visit includes bilateral talks with President Emomali Rahmon. Russia’s Ambassador to Tajikistan, Semyon Grigoriev, told Izvestia that a high‑ranking delegation of security, economic, and humanitarian ministers will accompany the Russian leader, and that discussions will span economic cooperation, humanitarian ties, and regional security, framing the visit as a continuation of the two presidents’ regular consultations.

Trade and labor migration are widely expected to feature prominently in Putin and Rahmon’s discussions, given the centrality of Tajik migrant workers to bilateral ties and the presence of the Labor Ministry in the Russian delegation. The Tajik Foreign Ministry has stated that a series of “interstate and intergovernmental documents are scheduled to be signed,” whilst the Russian side has confirmed plans for an investment agreement on a new industrial park in Dushanbe.

For Rahmon, who has ruled since 1992, even modest improvements in migrant rights and remittance flows could bolster his domestic standing. For Russia, facing demographic decline and the strains of wartime mobilization, Tajik labor remains essential, but the Kremlin also needs to reassure its own public that security concerns are being addressed.

Observers also expect the leaders to coordinate on Afghanistan, where ISIS‑K and other militant groups pose a direct threat to both nations.

A Balancing Act Between Security and Dependence

Tajikistan’s dependence on Russia for work opportunities has long anchored Dushanbe’s foreign-policy alignment with Moscow, but the Crocus City Hall attack and the sweeping crackdown that followed have tested that loyalty. Reports of Tajiks being turned away or held at Russian airports and of migrants facing harassment have prompted rare public complaints from Tajik officials. At the same time, Dushanbe remains wary of destabilizing its security relationship with Moscow, not least because the Afghan border remains porous and Islamist recruitment pressures persist.

The high-level meetings in Dushanbe, therefore, give both sides a chance to recalibrate. For Moscow, they are an opportunity to mend fences with a key security partner; for Tajikistan, they are a chance to press for concessions. Bilateral deals on infrastructure and labor rights could soften the economic blow if migration flows slow. Meanwhile, the adoption of new CIS programs on counterterrorism and border security would send a signal to China and other regional actors that the bloc remains committed to collective defense. If the proposed CIS Plus format is launched, it could also open the door for Gulf states or other Asian partners to engage with the grouping, broadening Tajikistan’s diplomatic options.

Looking Ahead

Despite rising tensions, Tajikistan and Russia remain bound by geography, history, and economic necessity. For Tajik households, remittances continue to be the bedrock of income, even as this reliance leaves families exposed to policy shocks in Moscow. Russia, grappling with demographic decline and the demands of wartime mobilization, cannot afford to dispense with migrant labor, while Tajikistan faces the long-term challenge of diversifying its economy and protecting its citizens abroad.

The back-to-back summits in Dushanbe will therefore be more than ceremonial gatherings. For Tajikistan, hosting the Russia–Central Asia and CIS meetings is a chance to assert regional leadership and demonstrate its role as a bridge in Eurasian politics. For Russia, it is an opportunity to reassure allies that, despite the strains of war and domestic upheaval, it remains a central player in Central Asia’s security and economic architecture. The extent to which Putin and Rahmon can recalibrate their partnership in the coming days will be a litmus test for how both countries navigate the twin pressures of dependence and distrust in an increasingly volatile regional landscape.