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Cyber Déjà Vu: Is Russia Spying on Kazakhstan Again?

Another espionage scandal is gaining traction in the Western media, with Kazakhstan once again at its center. Within Kazakhstan, however, the topic of Russian cyber activities against the country is receiving minimal attention in the press. While Akorda seeks to navigate its delicate relationship with the Kremlin, any overt allegations of espionage might provoke Moscow’s powerful propaganda machine, which continues to exert significant influence over public opinion in Kazakhstan. This time, the intrigue is unfolding in cyberspace, where a hacker group identified as UAC-0063, potentially linked to the Kremlin-backed Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group known as APT28, has been implicated in spying on diplomatic institutions across Central Asia. The group’s activities, which can be traced back to at least 2021, have targeted not only Kazakhstan, but also Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and other countries. Their previous targets include diplomatic, non-profit, academic, energy, and defense organizations in Ukraine, Israel, India, and the wider Central Asian region. According to a cyber espionage investigation by Sekoia, UAC-0063 hackers infiltrated Kazakhstan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs by leveraging official documents, such as emails, draft memos, and internal administrative communications. These documents — likely used to deliver malware — were either stolen in prior cyber operations, obtained from open sources, or acquired through other unknown means. Sekoia identified around two dozen such documents, dating from 2021 to October 2024, which primarily addressed Kazakhstan’s diplomatic cooperation and economic relations with other countries. The researchers suggest this campaign is part of a broader, Kremlin-backed global cyber espionage operation targeting Central Asia, with a particular focus on Kazakhstan's foreign relations. This latest revelation is a reminder of other episodes. One prominent ongoing case involves individuals in London who stand accused of preparing actions at the behest of Russia against Kazakhstan's diplomatic mission in the United Kingdom and targeting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s son. Even more striking is the echo of the Pegasus spyware scandal, which emerged in 2021. An investigation by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) revealed that the Israeli-developed Pegasus spyware was used to monitor a wide range of individuals in Kazakhstan, including independent journalists, activists, human rights defenders, and high-ranking officials. Among the targets were President Tokayev, then-Prime Minister Askar Mamin, former Akim of Almaty Bakytzhan Sagintayev, and several of Kazakhstan’s wealthiest business-people. At the time, public suspicion fell upon Karim Massimov, the former chief of the National Security Committee (KNB), as the perpetrator of the Pegasus surveillance. However, the issue faded into obscurity following the unrest of January 2022, the events of which were officially described as an attempted coup d’état. To this day, no definitive answers have been provided about who orchestrated the Pegasus cyberattacks or their motives. Now, with fresh reports of Russian-linked malware targeting Kazakhstan’s cyber-security, it appears that history may be repeating itself. The key question which remains - is this merely a case of déjà vu, or could it signal the groundwork for a new effort to destabilize Kazakhstan?

Russia Politics Sanctions Gazpromneft U.S. Sanctions Gasprom US sanctions Oil and Gas

New U.S. Anti-Russian Sanctions Could Spell Trouble for Central Asian Economies

On January 10, 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a new package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector. The measures, which affect a wide range of organizations and individuals, are set to take effect on February 27. While ostensibly aimed at undermining Russia’s economic interests amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the sanctions are likely to have significant repercussions for Central Asian countries given their close economic ties with Russian energy giants. The sanctions package, viewed by some analysts as a final move by the outgoing Biden administration, could become a potent tool for the incoming administration to exert influence over Russian interests in Central Asia. Sanctions on Gazpromneft Subsidiaries The new sanctions include restrictions on Gazpromneft's subsidiaries operating in Central Asia. Affected entities include Gazpromneft Tajikistan, Gazpromneft Kazakhstan, Gazpromneft Asia (Kyrgyzstan), and Munai Myrza (Kyrgyzstan). According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Gazpromneft and its regional subsidiaries are considered critical sources of revenue that support Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. In response, Gazpromneft characterized the sanctions as "unfounded, illegitimate and contrary to the principles of free competition." The impact of these sanctions, however, could prove severe for the economies of Central Asia, where Gazpromneft plays a key role in the energy sector. Gazpromneft Asia, for example, is a major supplier of petroleum products in Kyrgyzstan, making it a critical player in the domestic market. Sanctions on the company could disrupt fuel supplies and drive up energy prices in the country. Gazpromneft Kazakhstan LLP, based in Almaty, operates a network of Gazpromneft-branded gas stations in Kazakhstan. While disruptions to fuel supplies in this network might not critically affect Kazakhstan’s economy - the largest in Central Asia - the sanctions carry broader implications. Threats to Joint Projects Beyond direct sanctions on companies, several executives of Russian oil firms actively operating in Kazakhstan have been added to the U.S. sanctions list. Key figures include Vadim Vorobyev, President of Lukoil PJSC and a member of Kazakhstan’s Foreign Investors Council. Lukoil is a strategic partner of KazMunaiGas (KMG) in production and exploration projects; Nail Maganov, CEO of Tatneft, which collaborates with KMG on projects such as Karaton Podsolovaya, Butadiene, and the Saran Tire Plant; Alexander Dyukov, the Chairman of Gazpromneft, and Sergei Kudryashov, CEO of Zarubezhneft, which has signed letters of intent for joint projects with KMG. These sanctions could complicate existing partnerships and delay key projects, undermining Kazakhstan’s energy sector and its broader economic growth. Sanctions on Rosatom and Nuclear Energy Another significant element of the sanctions package is the inclusion of Rosatom executives on the U.S. sanctions list. This development poses challenges to Kazakhstan’s plans to establish an international consortium - including representatives from France, South Korea, China, and Russia - to build a nuclear power plant. With Rosatom facing restrictions, the consortium is now likely to exclude Russia, potentially straining relations between Astana and Moscow. A global leader in nuclear energy, Rosatom was expected to play a central role in the project. Kazakhstan may now explore alternative arrangements, balancing its energy ambitions with the...

Aktau Plane Crash AZAL Plane Crash Azerbaijan Russia

Two Weeks After Crash, Russia Closes City Airspace and Azerbaijan Cancels Flight

Azerbaijan Airlines canceled a flight to the southwest Russian city of Kazan on Wednesday after the airspace over the city was closed as a security precaution, Azerbaijan’s state media reported. The cancellation of the Baku-Kazan-Baku flight came two weeks after an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan after, according to Azerbaijan, the aircraft was accidentally hit by Russian ground fire and diverted from a planned landing in Grozny, Chechnya. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not confirmed the Azerbaijani account, though he apologized and said Russian air defenses were repelling Ukrainian drones over Grozny and two other Russian areas at the time. Azertac, an Azerbaijani state news agency, said the cancellation of the Kazan-bound flight came after Russia’s announcement of its so-called “Kovyor,” or “carpet,” operation, in which airspace over an area is closed temporarily because of a perceived threat. Kazan has previously been targeted by long-range Ukrainian drones. The Kovyor protocol came under scrutiny after an Azerbaijani airliner crashed on Dec. 25 in Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people and leaving 29 survivors. Without naming Putin, President Ilham Aliyev has harshly criticized Russian officials for alleged attempts to cover up what happened by floating false theories about the cause of the crash and said the Kovyor plan was activated after the plane was shot at, indicating criminal liability. “If there was a threat to Russian airspace, the captain of the plane should have been informed about it immediately. The airspace should have been closed immediately and the plane should have turned back,” Aliyev said, according to APA, another Azerbaijani government news agency. “I should also note that about 10 days before the accident, a similar incident occurred near the city of Grozny. An AZAL plane was turned back halfway. Why was the crew not warned about it this time? Naturally, the investigation will show this.” Kazakhstan is leading the investigation team, which includes officials from Azerbaijan and Russia as well as input from Brazilian technicians who have examined the flight data and cockpit voice recorders from the Brazil-produced Embraer 190 plane. Kazakhstan has said a preliminary report is expected within 30 days of the crash. Azerbaijan Airlines suspended flights to some Russian cities after the crash.

Russia Azerbaijan Disaster Response Multi-vector Foreign Policy Middle Powers AZAL Plane Crash Aktau Plane Crash

Kazakhstan’s High-Stakes Balancing Act in the Aktau Crash Investigation

The Aktau crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, which killed 38 people on 25 December, was a tragic event with significant international repercussions. This devastating accident not only claimed lives but also raised critical questions about aviation safety and the handling of sensitive investigations. As investigators sought to determine its cause, Kazakhstan faced an important decision regarding the handling of the flight recorder. Ultimately, the country chose to transfer the recorder to Brazil, the manufacturer of the aircraft, rather than to the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as Russia had proposed. This decision reflected both technical and diplomatic considerations, marking a crucial moment in the unfolding investigation. By taking this decision, Kazakhstan adhered to established industry procedures for aviation safety investigations. Such a step highlights the country's commitment to transparency and global norms in aviation. The move is typical of the country's foreign policy under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose long diplomatic experience leads him to emphasize a rules-based approach over political considerations and to act in accord with established procedural norms. This choice ensured that the investigation would follow established international practices, thereby lending credibility to the process and reassuring global aviation stakeholders. This behavior is also in line with Kazakhstan's broader commitment to international law and a rules-based global order. Another notable example of this approach was its endorsement of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity through its refusal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or the independence of the Donbas regions. These decisions were not necessarily easy ones, given Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties with Russia, but they reinforced its commitment to global standards. While some observers might frame decisions like the Aktau recorder transfer as a “snub” to Russia, such characterizations would miss the point. Like Kazakhstan’s refusal to recognize Donbas as independent and its efforts to prevent the flow of military components in violation of Western sanctions, its actions are not meant to be about rejecting one partner in favor of another. Rather, acting in its own autonomous interests, Kazakhstan seeks to "do the right thing," because this maintains a consistent international profile with a steady foreign-policy course grounded in international law and practice. Kazakhstan’s mediation efforts extend beyond formal multilateral forums, showcasing its active engagement in regional and global diplomacy. The country provided a neutral platform for discussions between opposing factions in the conflict over Syria; and it has also worked to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting purely bilateral consultations and thus demonstrating its capacity to engage constructively in regional conflicts without taking sides. These efforts are in line with Kazakhstan’s larger foreign-policy strategy to act as a principled and impartial intermediary on the global stage, fostering dialogue and reducing hostilities. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s leadership in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) reflects its dedication to multilateralism and peaceful conflict resolution. Kazakhstan exemplifies the rising middle-power archetype also through its significant contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation. Its foreign policy operates on...

Air Transport Aktau Plane Crash AZAL Plane Crash investigation Disaster Response Azerbaijan Russia

Aliyev Takes Aim at Russia in Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has intensified his criticism of Russia, accusing it of a “cover-up” over the Azerbaijan Airlines plane which crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. During a televised address, Aliyev expressed Azerbaijan’s “surprise, regret, and righteous indignation” over what he described as “absurd” explanations for the crash. Departing from protocol, Aliyev delivered his address in Russian, a poignant choice that heightened the gravity of his message. “I can confidently say that the guilt for the deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in this accident lies with the representatives of the Russian Federation,” Aliyev stated. “We demand justice, we demand punishment of the guilty, we demand complete transparency and humane treatment… If the city of Grozny had taken timely measures to close Russian airspace over its territory, if all the rules of ground services had been observed, and if there had been coordination between the armed forces and civil services of the Russian Federation, then this tragedy would not have happened.” On Monday, Aliyev met with the two surviving flight attendants and the families of other crew members who perished, describing them as “heroes”. The Flight Recorders In a related development, Brazil has concluded its analysis of the black boxes from Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243. The Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA) confirmed that the findings were handed over to Kazakhstan’s Aviation Accident Investigation Department in line with international protocols for aircraft accident investigations. These results will contribute to the final report on the incident. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia (TCA), the incident led the Commission on Aviation Incident Investigation, headed by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, to decide to send the flight recorders to Brazil’s CENIPA. The investigation was conducted by three Brazilian specialists in collaboration with Azerbaijani and Russian experts. Chronology of the Crash The incident occurred on December 25, when an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near Aktau on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast. The plane was flying between Baku, Azerbaijan, and Grozny, Russia. Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed, and 29 were injured. The passengers included 37 Azerbaijani citizens, 6 Kazakhs, 3 Kyrgyz, and 16 Russians. On December 26, video footage showing small holes in the fuselage wreckage sparked speculation about possible external damage. Aviation and military analysts suggested the holes might have been caused by air defense systems, given reports from the Chechen authorities about the shooting down of Ukrainian drones in the area. This raised concerns about the potential for misidentification. [caption id="attachment_27352" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Chechen Pantsir Missile Launcher; image: Vitaly V. Kuzmin[/caption] When asked about the possibility of external fire, Kazakh Minister Marat Bozumbayev emphasized that conclusions would only be drawn after all available evidence had been examined. International Collaboration The Azerbaijani government rejected the idea of a Russian-led investigation, opting instead for an international team of experts, including representatives from Embraer. The black boxes were sent to CENIPA on December 29. The crash also prompted a temporary suspension...

Aktau Plane Crash Disaster Response Media Freedom Russia Azerbaijan AZAL Plane Crash

Kazakh Blogger, Jailed After Filming at Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Site, is Freed

A Kazakh blogger, who was sentenced to 10 days in prison after using a drone to film wreckage, emergency responders and bodies covered with tarps at the site of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crash in Kazakhstan, has been released. Azamat Sarsenbayev was convicted of disobeying a police order not to film and photograph at the Dec. 25 crash in a quickly held, late-night trial in a court in Fort-Shevchenko, more than 100 kilometers from Aktau, the Caspian Sea city where the plane hit the ground and burst into flames, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. He had disputed the charge, arguing that there were procedural violations and that, by law, he should have received a fine instead of a prison sentence. [caption id="attachment_27275" align="aligncenter" width="766"] Footage from the crash site; Azamat Sarsenbayev[/caption] The prosecution of Sarsenbayev partly shows the tension between periodic government efforts to monitor and restrict information, not just in Kazakhstan but also in other Central Asian countries, and the efforts of some bloggers, journalists and others to widen the scope for reporting, often at risk of prosecution and jail time. Regional governments sometimes warn of the threat of provocateurs spreading disinformation, though Sarsenbayev’s actions on the day of the crash appeared to be more in line with reporting the facts of a major international disaster. Drones enhance the reporting ability of some journalists, though there can be accompanying ethical, legal and security concerns about their use. The Embraer 190 plane crash is particularly sensitive because it involves criminal investigators and a delicate international backdrop. Azerbaijan says Russian ground fire hit the plane as it was trying to land at its planned destination in Russia-controlled Chechnya. Russia has apologized without directly confirming the Azerbaijani account. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation and preliminary findings are expected to be released later in January. On social media posts this weekend, Sarsenbayev provided details about his testimony to the judge during his trial, saying he had received calls from international news organizations and other outlets asking for help in covering the crash. He said he reached the scene at around 11 a.m. and deployed his drone about one kilometer away, without having any contact with police, and then approached a cordoned-off area to interview a representative from the Ministry of Emergency Situations who was giving official comments. Sarsenbayev said he told the judge that the media organizations that had contacted him did so “for paid collaboration to capture authentic, exclusive materials for their platforms” and that he had not taken any “explicit” images of crash victims, since their bodies were covered. “If there had been even the slightest hint of a breach of ´ethics´ or ´moral norms´ in my photographs, platforms like Instagram would have automatically blocked my posts, let alone news outlets that published my images. In that case, should we hold everyone accountable for photographing or filming incidents like car accidents or other similar events?” Sarsenbayev said he told the judge. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has promised more...