• KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09452 0.32%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 -0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 -0.14%
6 April 2025

Why Europe Is Betting Big on Kazakhstan’s Future

Image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland

On April 3, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Samarkand, ahead of the Central Asia–European Union summit. Although the meeting was brief, it came at a key moment, bringing into focus a set of shared economic and technological priorities that both sides increasingly treat as strategic.

Tokayev made his position plain: Kazakhstan is looking to push forward in four core areas of cooperation with the EU: energy, industrial infrastructure, transport and logistics, and digital technology. Each of these lines up with the country’s broader goals for economic modernization. The two leaders also acknowledged recent steps toward a simplified EU visa regime for Kazakhstani nationals, which would ease movement for businesses and professionals in both directions.

The meeting itself fits into a growing pattern. It builds on the first five-country Central Asia–EU leaders’ summit held in Astana back in October 2022. That gathering marked a turning point, putting the EU’s regional engagement on firmer institutional footing. It went beyond symbolic gestures and aimed at unlocking concrete investment opportunities.

Since then, the EU has moved quickly to back up its commitments with financial and logistical support. Much of this has flowed through the Global Gateway initiative, a flagship program designed to channel European investment into infrastructure projects in developing and strategically situated economies. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has had a visible role in this process, running studies and financing projects across the transport, energy, and trade connectivity sectors.

One EBRD-backed report, published in 2023, offered a striking projection: around €18.5 billion would be needed to scale container transport between the EU and Central Asia by a factor of eight. The goal was to go from fewer than 100,000 TEUs per year to roughly 865,000 by 2040. In response, the EU and the EBRD convened an Investors’ Forum in early 2024, bringing in more than €10 billion in early-stage pledges. A second forum is now scheduled for 2025, with new focus areas, including mining, supply chains, and processing industries.

During the Samarkand discussion, von der Leyen underlined the strategic significance of the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). This project has been gaining traction in EU planning circles as an alternative to routes running through Russia or the Gulf. The corridor promises not only economic returns but greater resilience in east–west supply chains. Kazakhstan, by geography and by political posture, is positioned at the center of this shift. Its participation is not just beneficial but also structurally important.

The timing of the meeting was also notable. Just a day earlier, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Industry and Construction had announced a major find: a substantial deposit of rare earth elements at the Kuirektykol site. State-supported geological teams working in that region reported an estimated one million tons of potential material. Preliminary surveys from two zones, Irgiz and Dos 2, showed mineral content exceeding 0.1%, with some samples reaching as high as 0.25%. This level is a strong signal for commercial viability and will likely draw the attention of investors and technology firms looking to diversify sourcing.

Von der Leyen welcomed the news, emphasizing that rare earths have become critical to Europe’s industrial and strategic planning. The EU has relied heavily on imports from China, especially for components used in renewable-energy technologies, defense, and digital devices. Shifting to a broader base of suppliers has become a matter of long-term stability.

Kazakhstan, in that context, offers more than geology. It also offers predictability. Unlike some other countries with natural resource wealth, it provides legal consistency and relative political continuity. Tokayev’s government has established itself as being receptive to international investment, building the kind of regulatory frameworks that give long-term investors some sense of assurance. The combination of resources plus reliability is a relatively rare one in today’s geopolitical environment.

The Kazakhstan-EU relationship is also grounded institutionally. The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) provides a legal structure for everything from trade norms to environmental standards. Since the EPCA came into force in 2020, the EU has edged out China, Russia, and the U.S. to become Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner. Over the past two years, Kazakhstan has increased its integration into EU satellite and communications networks, supporting a range of applications from agricultural monitoring to climate data to communications security.

Looking ahead, momentum seems to be building. EU funding in Central Asia as a whole is expected to pass €20 billion by the end of 2025, including priorities for environmental standards, joint ventures, and local capacity-building. A post-summer Economic Forum is in the works, and the next Investors Forum — this time focused more on raw materials and supply chain development — is planned for the fall. In parallel, the C5+EU format will continue to evolve, with think tanks, regional experts, and business leaders feeding into its policy architecture.

The Tokayev–von der Leyen meeting reaffirmed the partnership’s direction. What remains is implementation across the issue-areas of infrastructure, technology, resources, and the legal frameworks that tie them together.

President Tokayev has consistently framed the EU as a long-term partner for Kazakhstan’s development. From the European side, Kazakhstan is increasingly seen as a stable anchor in a region where volatility is a persistent risk. The Samarkand meeting, though modest in scale, allowed the two sides an opportunity to articulate together their agreement that their partnership is continuing to consolidate itself in a constructive manner.

Dr. Robert M. Cutler

Dr. Robert M. Cutler

Robert M. Cutler has written and consulted on Central Asian affairs for over 30 years at all levels. He was a founding member of the Central Eurasian Studies Society’s executive board and founding editor of its Perspectives publication. He has written for Asia Times, Foreign Policy Magazine, The National Interest, Euractiv, Radio Free Europe, National Post (Toronto), FSU Oil & Gas Monitor, and many other outlets.

He directs the NATO Association of Canada’s Energy Security Program, where he is also senior fellow, and is a practitioner member at the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Complexity and Innovation. Educated at MIT, the Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva), and the University of Michigan, he was for many years a senior researcher at Carleton University’s Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, and is past chairman of the Montreal Press Club’s Board of Directors.

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