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War in Ukraine: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Tell Citizens to Step Up Safety

Some Central Asian countries are urging their nationals to consider leaving Ukraine as the war with Russian forces escalates there. “Due to the increased frequency of artillery shelling and airstrikes in Ukraine, the Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Ukraine strongly advises its citizens to consider leaving areas close to active combat zones or leaving Ukraine altogether for safety purposes,” the embassy said on Telegram on Wednesday. It urged citizens “to take air raid warnings seriously, immediately seek shelter, adhere to personal safety measures, and follow the recommendations of official authorities.” Kazakh citizens can travel home from Ukraine by using land routes through Poland or Moldova, and then boarding a commercial flight, according to the embassy. It said a Schengen visa is required for entry into Poland and no visa is needed for Moldova. Citing its embassy in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “a massive attack was carried out on the territory of the Kyiv region using attack unmanned aerial vehicles” on Wednesday. The ministry recommended that Kyrgyz citizens currently in Ukraine “strengthen their personal security measures and, if necessary, leave the territory of Ukraine until the situation has fully stabilized.” The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said it was closing on Wednesday as a precaution after receiving “specific information of a potential significant air attack” and that embassy employees were instructed to shelter in place. Some other Western embassies also closed temporarily. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the war has recently escalated. North Korean troops have deployed into ally Russia’s territory near the border, including in the Kursk region of Russia where Ukrainian troops have seized territory; the United States has allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied, longer-range missiles to attack targets in Russia; and Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued another round of warnings about the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, in an apparent effort to deter more Western support for Ukraine.

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Kyrgyzstan’s Largest Hydropower Plant Boosts Generating Capacity

On November 19, Kyrgyzstan launched the modernized hydroelectric generating unit No. 1 at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), the country’s largest power facility. Located on the Naryn River, the Toktogul HPP generates approximately 40% of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity. The modernization of hydroelectric unit No. 1 began in March 2024 and has increased its generating capacity by 60 MW. Prior to this upgrade, the Toktogul HPP had a total capacity of 1,200 MW, with each of its four units producing 300 MW. Two units had already been upgraded in previous phases, collectively adding 120 MW to the plant's total capacity. The reconstruction of the fourth and final hydroelectric unit is scheduled for 2025. Once the modernization project is complete, Toktogul HPP will gain an additional 240 MW of generating capacity, extending its service life by 25–30 years. The $210 million rehabilitation project is funded by a $110 million loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and $100 million from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD). With a total volume of 19.5 billion cubic meters, the Toktogul HPP reservoir plays a dual role in meeting Kyrgyzstan's energy demands and providing essential irrigation water to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. During the winter, increased water releases are used to generate electricity for Kyrgyzstan, while summer releases support irrigation for southern Kazakhstan’s dry regions. As of November 19, 2024, the Toktogul reservoir contained 12.991 billion cubic meters of water, compared to 11.694 billion cubic meters on the same date in 2023. The reservoir currently receives 246 cubic meters of water per second and releases 488 cubic meters per second. Despite this year’s higher water levels, Kyrgyzstan continues to face electricity shortages, according to Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev. Toktogul HPP's modernization and efficient management of water resources remain critical to addressing these challenges and ensuring regional energy and water security.

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Kazakhstan Abandons Universal Income Declaration Plan

Kazakhstan Scraps Universal Tax Declarations Amid Public Concerns In a surprising move, the Kazakh government has proposed canceling the universal tax declaration system set to take effect in 2025. The decision, aimed at alleviating public anxiety amid worsening economic conditions, will exempt over 90% of the population from filing declarations. Experts argue that this adjustment is necessary and practical, as the reform would otherwise add unnecessary strain on taxpayers without significantly benefiting state revenues. Public Backlash and Policy Reassessment The Universal Declaration initiative was intended to include approximately 8 million additional citizens in 2025, encompassing private sector employees, pensioners, and students. However, widespread public concern about the burden on taxpayers and tax authorities prompted a reevaluation. Finance Minister Madi Takiyev announced the exemption on November 19, citing the country's advanced digital infrastructure, which already tracks key financial data. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov echoed these sentiments, directing the Ministries of Finance, National Economy, and Justice to draft legislative amendments within three days. He emphasized that the reform had “caused concern of the population, which was brought to the attention of the head of state.” He added that a widespread income declaration is unnecessary because the databases of state agencies in Kazakhstan are "highly digitized." Streamlined Tax Obligations The revised approach retains declaration requirements for specific groups, including: Citizens with assets abroad. Individuals making significant purchases (exceeding 74 million KZT, or approximately $149,000, in 2024). Those receiving income are subject to independent taxation. Voluntary declarations will remain an option for all citizens. A Phased Reform The universal declaration system began in 2021 and was implemented in stages. Initially, it targeted government officials and their spouses. The requirement extended to public sector employees and the quasi-public sector in subsequent phases. By 2024, business leaders, entrepreneurs, and their spouses were included. The final stage, which aimed to include the broader population, faced criticism for being outdated in the digital era. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev acknowledged this, stating, “It is planned that about 8 million more people will submit declarations next year. However, we should consider that the concept of universal income declaration was adopted 14 years ago. During this time, the country has made significant progress in digitalization and fintech. Databases of various government agencies have been integrated. Financial and tax control has been strengthened. Given these large-scale changes, the question arises as to whether it is advisable for citizens falling under the fourth and final stage to submit declarations. The government needs to work out a solution to this.” Expert Analysis Political scientist Gaziz Abishev highlighted the effectiveness of the reform's earlier stages, which targeted those most likely to influence public funds or earn significant income. “The first three stages have already included bureaucrats, civil servants, quasi-public sector employees, and businesspeople. Everyone who manages public funds or earns a considerable income within Kazakhstan’s economy has already been required to report and will continue to submit declarations,” Abishev explained. The fourth stage, set to include around 8 million additional citizens, drew criticism for its lack...

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Kazakhstan and Serbia Strengthen Ties Despite Different Geopolitical Paths

Serbian President Vucic (54) might physically resemble Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (71), but the geopolitical positions of Sebia and Kazakhstan could not be more different. While the Balkan nation – a European Union candidate since 2012 – remains in the EU’s “eternal waiting room”, the Central Asian country – a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union – seems to have found a delicate balance between Russia, China, and the West. Those differences, however, have not prevented Serbia and Kazakhstan from strengthening their bilateral ties. Over the past six months, the two countries have been actively preparing for Tokayev’s trip to Serbia. This year, he spoke by phone with Vucic twice, while various Serbian and Kazakh officials held several meetings. On November 18-19, Tokayev finally visited the Southeastern European nation, where he met with his Serbian counterpart. According to the Kazakh leader, they discussed strengthening trade and economic relations and bilateral partnerships between the two nations. “It is essential that we develop cooperation. We had constructive talks and reached important deals,” Tokayev stressed. During his visit to the Balkan country, Serbian and Kazakh ministers signed several bilateral agreements. One of them is a 2025 plan on military cooperation. It is, therefore, no surprise that, following the talks in Belgrade, Vucic and Tokayev attended an exhibition of arms and military equipment at the Batajnica military airport near the Serbian capital. Indeed, military ties seem to be an important aspect of the Serbian-Kazakh relationship. Back in 2017, the two nations signed a memorandum of understanding in the field of military-technical collaboration. Six years later, in November 2023, Kazakhstan and Serbia inked intergovernmental agreements on military-technical cooperation, while in June of this year Serbian and Kazakh defense ministers discussed in Astana military relations between the two countries. Also, in September, Roman Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, announced that Belgrade and Astana plan то expand cooperation in the defense industry. It remains to be seen how Moscow – Astana’s nominal ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – will react to Kazakhstan’s ambitions to deepen military ties with Serbia – a nominally neutral country that has indirectly supplied Ukraine with $885 million worth of weapons. Despite being in different geopolitical positions, Serbia and Kazakhstan seem to share the same approach regarding Ukraine. Both nations support the Eastern European country’s territorial integrity, while trying to preserve relatively good relations with the Kremlin. At the same time, they support each other’s territorial integrity, which is particularly important for Serbia given that Kazakhstan does not recognize the 2008 unilateral independence of Kosovo. In 2022, sitting next to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tokayev said that if the right to self-determination is put into practice worldwide, then there will be over 600 countries instead of the 193 states which are currently members of the United Nations. “For this reason, we do not recognize either Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia… This principle will also be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Lugansk and...

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Caspian Sea Water Decline Requires Urgent Action, Says UNEP Chief

By the end of this century, the water levels of the Caspian Sea could drop by up to 18 meters, a decline that would devastate ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods, and jeopardize food security and regional stability. Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), highlighted this concern during the event, “Caspian Sea Water Decline in Light of Climate Change” at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 18. According to Andersen, the Caspian Sea, the largest enclosed body of water on Earth, “is under siege from the triple planetary crisis: the crisis of climate change, the crisis of nature, land and biodiversity loss, and the crisis of pollution and waste.” Andersen warned that without urgent action, this environmental and human crisis may result in as many as five million people being displaced from the Caspian basin by the middle of the century. [caption id="attachment_25708" align="aligncenter" width="722"] Inger Andersun; image: UNEP[/caption] The UNEP chief mentioned the impacts of the Caspian crisis: declining fisheries, salinization threatening agriculture, and the critically endangered Caspian seal — a species found nowhere else on Earth — facing extinction. Andersen emphasized the critical importance of the Tehran Convention — “the cornerstone for regional cooperation on the Caspian Sea.” The Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention) was signed by the five Caspian littoral states — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan — in 2003 and entered into force in August 2006 after being ratified by all five governments. [caption id="attachment_25706" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Aktau, Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Ola Fiedorczuk[/caption] The Tehran Convention “provides a platform to align our efforts, to unite science and policy, and to prioritize sustainable development across this unique region. As the interim Secretariat of the Tehran Convention, UNEP is proud to support these vital efforts and remains firm in its commitment to providing technical expertise, fostering collaboration, and supporting innovative financing mechanisms to address this urgent challenge,” said Andersen, emphasizing that robust monitoring and predictive models are essential to understanding and managing the drivers of Caspian water level changes. “Science must inform every decision we take, whether on climate adaptation, biodiversity protection or pollution control,” Andersen stated, calling for regional cooperation to be strengthened. “The challenges the Caspian faces transcend borders. Solutions must do the same. Through trans-boundary collaboration, we can craft integrated solutions that safeguard ecosystems, support livelihoods, and promote equitable economic growth,” she stated. The Times of Central Asia earlier reported that the abundant floodwater in April-May 2024 raised Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea water level by over a meter. On July 1, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced that the water level in the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea had risen by 119 cm since the beginning of 2024. The COP29 summit has been widely criticized for its "theatrics," "slow progress," and handing out the "red carpet" treatment to fossil fuel bosses.

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Tajik MMA Fighter Chorshanbiev, Imprisoned For Criticizing Authorities, Faces New Charges

In Tajikistan, the well known MMA fighter and prominent blogger Chorshanbe Chorshanbiev, already serving an 8.5-year prison sentence, has been handed an additional four years on new charges. Journalist Anora Sarkorova reported the development on November 18, which was later confirmed by sources at Radio Ozodi. Chorshanbiev, known for criticizing Tajik authorities in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region while residing in Russia, was deported to Tajikistan in December 2021. By May 2022, he was convicted of “public calls for violent change of the constitutional order” and sentenced to 8.5 years in prison. Details of the additional sentence remain unclear, but it is speculated to be related to either violations of prison regulations or involvement in a fight. Recently, Chorshanbiev was transferred from a penal colony in Khujand to a pre-trial detention center in Dushanbe. Chorshanbiev’s legal troubles began in December 2021 when he was deported from Russia for traffic violations. Upon his arrival in Dushanbe, he was arrested, and the Tajik prosecutor's office initiated charges against him, alleging incitement of social and national discord and calls to overthrow the state system. However, during the investigation, the first charge was dropped. His trial garnered significant public attention. Prominent athletes in Russia voiced their support for him, and his defense team argued that the case rested on a single piece of evidence: a video recorded in November 2021. In the video, Chorshanbiev commented on violent clashes in Khorog, during which three people were killed and dozens injured. The prosecution claimed his statements amounted to incitement of protests against the government. A political scientist’s analysis, presented during the trial, characterized Chorshanbiev’s remarks as a call for rebellion. However, his lawyers contested this interpretation and requested a re-evaluation of the video. In court, Chorshanbiev maintained that he had no intention of destabilizing the country. Despite the divided expert opinion, Chorshanbiev was convicted, and his case continues to provoke debate.