• KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
09 December 2025

Climate Study’s Dire Forecast Undermined by Faulty Uzbekistan Data

A widely publicized climate study predicting severe global economic losses from climate change is under scrutiny following the discovery of a critical data error involving Uzbekistan. As reported by The Washington Post on August 7, the error significantly skewed the study’s projections, prompting renewed debate over the reliability of economic modeling in climate science.

Published in Nature in 2023, the original study warned that unchecked climate change could reduce global GDP by 19% by 2050 and by an alarming 62% by 2100, nearly three times higher than earlier forecasts. The study attracted substantial media attention and became the second-most-cited climate paper in 2024, according to CarbonBrief. Its projections were used by U.S. government agencies and the World Bank in financial planning.

However, a new commentary in Nature, led by Solomon Hsiang, director of Stanford University’s Global Policy Laboratory, revealed that the study’s extreme forecasts were largely driven by distorted GDP data from Uzbekistan. Once researchers excluded Uzbekistan from the model, the projected global GDP losses dropped sharply from 62% to 23% by 2100, and from 19% to 6% by 2050.

The flawed dataset suggested that Uzbekistan’s GDP plummeted by nearly 90% in 2000, then rebounded by over 90% in certain regions by 2010, figures inconsistent with historical records. According to the World Bank, Uzbekistan’s actual annual growth between 1980 and 2020 ranged between -0.2% and +7.7%.

“These extreme swings warped the study’s model, creating the illusion that global GDP was far more sensitive to climate than it really is,” Hsiang told The Washington Post.

The original study’s authors, based at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, acknowledged the error but stood by their conclusions. After revising the Uzbekistan data and adjusting the model, they reduced their 2050 forecast from a 19% to a 17% GDP loss.

“We’re grateful for the scrutiny,” said co-author Leonie Wenz of the Technical University of Berlin. “But the main conclusions still hold.”

Still, critics argue that retroactive methodological adjustments raise concerns about scientific integrity. “Science doesn’t work by adjusting experiments to get the answer you want,” Hsiang cautioned.

The incident highlights both the power and the fragility of large-scale climate modeling and the importance of validating every data point, regardless of a country’s size.

Tajikistan May Revisit Sentences for Social Media ‘Likes’ and Comments

Tajikistan may review criminal cases in which individuals were convicted solely for “likes” and other digital interactions on social media. This was announced on August 7 by Rustam Mirzozoda, Chairman of the Supreme Court of Tajikistan.

Possibility of Sentence Review

According to Mirzozoda, existing legislation permits the review of such cases, though most convictions to date have been based on additional charges.

“If the sentence was handed down solely on the basis of ‘likes and reposts,’ the courts are ready to review such decisions,” Mirzozoda stated.

He added that no appeals have yet been filed with Tajikistan’s courts on this issue, and no cases have been reviewed.

Navruz Odinaev, founder of the Khimoya law firm, previously explained to Asia-Plus that the Criminal Code allows for retroactive application of laws if they reduce penalties or decriminalize offenses. This means that recent amendments may apply not only to future prosecutions but also to previously issued sentences.

Origins of the “Like Law”

In 2018, amendments to Article 179 of the Criminal Code introduced penalties for public calls for terrorist activity and the justification of terrorism, including online actions.

These changes allowed likes, reposts, and comments on extremist content to be treated as evidence of criminal involvement. Convictions under this article carried sentences ranging from 5 to 15 years. Similar amendments to Article 307 (“Public calls for extremism”) imposed prison terms of 3 to 12 years.

President Rahmon’s Reversal

In October 2024, President Emomali Rahmon publicly condemned the prosecution of individuals for social media interactions, describing the practice as excessive and misguided.

“Recently, the authorities have considered the fact that some citizens like shared materials and videos on social media as evidence, which has caused them enormous difficulties,” Rahmon stated. “In other words, some authorities are unjustifiably bringing criminal cases against them, and these actions must be stopped.”

His comments came amid growing scrutiny of citizens for engaging with content posted by religious or opposition figures.

On May 14, 2025, Rahmon signed legislation decriminalizing digital reactions on social media, even those related to content previously deemed extremist or a threat to public order.

What Prompted the Shift?

According to Deputy Prosecutor General Umed Karimzoda, more than 1,500 people were imprisoned in 2024 for social media activity deemed extremist.

Lawyer Ranjet Yatimov attributes the president’s policy reversal to several factors. He notes that prosecutions for digital expression have damaged Tajikistan’s international reputation, especially given its membership in global human rights organizations. Domestically, the increase in such cases has fueled public dissatisfaction and eroded trust in law enforcement. Legal ambiguities also played a role, as vague statutory language enabled selective enforcement, prompting urgent legislative reform.

Kazakhstan Doubles Barley Exports, with Iran and China Leading Demand

Kazakhstan has doubled its barley exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year, strengthening its position as a key player in the global grain market.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the country exported 1.82 million tons of barley between September 2024 and August 2025, twice the volume recorded in the same period the previous season.

The sharp increase was driven by a strong harvest of 3.84 million tons, robust demand from major markets such as Iran and China, and competitive pricing.

Iran emerged as the largest buyer, importing 1.064 million tons, nearly 30 times more than the previous year. China followed with 414,400 tons, while Uzbekistan imported 125,200 tons.

The surge in international demand has also pushed up domestic barley prices, providing a boost to local producers. In September 2024, prices ranged between KZT 50,000 and 52,000 per ton; by early August 2025, they had climbed to KZT 85,000-87,000 per ton.

The Ministry projects total barley exports for the 2024-2025 season will reach 1.9 million tons.

Kazakhstan has also reported a significant rise in wheat exports. Between September 2024 and July 2025, the country exported 12.4 million tons of wheat and flour, a 34% increase compared to the 9.3 million tons exported during the same period in 2023-2024.

From Kyz Kuu to Niqabs: Why Kazakh Women Face a Crisis of Values

Before the 1917 revolution, Kazakh women enjoyed significant freedoms due to their nomadic lifestyle. Living in the remote steppe, women were responsible not only for managing livestock and households but also for defending their families and property, often with weapons in hand. The Soviet era formalized gender equality, enabling women to become leading producers, scientists, decorated soldiers, and politicians. 

Today, however, these traditions face erosion from two opposing forces: rising consumerism and a growing Arab-influenced Islamization. According to Kazakh political scientist Zamir Karazhanov, women in Kazakhstan are struggling to find their place amid an expanding spiritual vacuum and polarized ideologies.

A Reversal in Feminism

A centuries-old game, Kyz Kuu (“Catch the Girl”), exemplifies the historical freedom of nomadic Kazakh women. The game, rooted in equestrian tradition, involved a female rider gaining a head start before being pursued by a young horseman. If he caught her and took her ribbon, he could propose marriage. If not, the woman would chase and whip the suitor with a kamcha (whip) in front of spectators, a demonstration of both female skill and independence.

During the Soviet period, the roles of Aliya Moldovan and Manshuk Mametova both posthumously named Heroes of the Soviet Union in World War II, underscored female empowerment in Kazakhstan.

In contrast, contemporary Kazakhstan is embroiled in a heated debate over the niqab, a face-covering garment not traditionally worn by Kazakhs. This shift has sparked national concern, culminating in the passage of a June 2025 law banning face coverings in public places.

Declining Representation and Shifting Priorities

Women’s representation in politics and governance has deteriorated, particularly in Kazakhstan’s southern and western regions. Despite officially favorable statistics, political scientist Zamira Karazhanova argues that the state practices only “artificial equality.” Party-imposed quotas for women and youth offer a superficial solution without addressing the systemic barriers to real empowerment.

“To achieve gender equality, we must create genuine opportunities for women to participate in politics and civil service,” said Karazhanova.

Karazhanov notes a broader cultural shift, with young women increasingly drawn to the lifestyle of tokal, unofficial second wives of wealthy men. These figures flaunt luxury and affluence on social media, eclipsing the appeal of education and career development.

“The pursuit of wealthy husbands is becoming a kind of ideology,” Karazhanov said. “Many young women are growing up with no interest in professional growth. They have entirely different ideals.”

The Rise of Foreign Influences

“Islam in Kazakhstan is becoming Arabized,” Karazhanov stated. “This affects not only how women dress, but also how they are perceived and perceive themselves. Religion is becoming a key part of national identity, even if some believers visit the mosque on Fridays and bars on Saturdays.”

Following the collapse of the USSR, Kazakhstan experienced a spiritual vacuum, filled rapidly by imported religious ideologies. Many religious leaders were educated in Arab countries or Afghanistan, bringing with them foreign dogmas that were alien to traditional Kazakh Islam. Karazhanov stressed that Arabization and radicalization are not confined to Kazakhstan, but also affect Russia, Turkey, and other Central Asian nations.

Initially, the Kazakh state underestimated the risks of radicalism. “Only recently have laws been introduced to regulate this space,” Karazhanov noted, criticizing the government’s short-sightedness in the ideological sphere.

The ideological rift is now palpable in society. While some women increasingly retreat into conservative roles, others turn to radical feminism. A provocative feminist protest in Almaty this year, which Karazhanov described as “borderline striptease,” alienated many citizens and highlighted the nation’s disorientation.

“Women no longer know who to emulate: social media influencers, feminist activists, or niqab-wearing neighbors,” he concluded. “Kazakhstan is in the throes of a values crisis.”

Kazakhstan Begins Oil Exports to Hungary

Kazakhstan has shipped its first batch of crude oil to Hungary, marking a significant step in the deepening energy partnership between KazMunayGas (KMG), the country’s national oil and gas company, and Hungary’s MOL Group.

According to KMG, 85,000 tons of crude were transported by sea from the Russian port of Novorossiysk to the Croatian port of Omisalj aboard the Alatau tanker, operated by Kazmortransflot, a KMG subsidiary. From there, the oil was transported via the Adriatic pipeline, operated by JANAF, Croatia’s state oil pipeline operator, to the Százhalombatta refinery in Hungary.

Upon the tanker’s arrival in Croatia, representatives of KMG, MOL Group, and JANAF convened to discuss further cooperation. Following the meeting, KMG and MOL Group signed a framework agreement outlining future oil supply arrangements.

The deal broadens the scope of Kazakhstan’s oil exports to the European Union. Kazakhstan already supplies crude to Germany via the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline, which runs through Russian territory.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Hungary reached a preliminary agreement earlier this year to supply Kazakh oil to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline as well. The agreement was concluded in February during a meeting in Astana between Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy, Almasadam Satkaliyev, and Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó. The two sides agreed to conduct trial shipments in 2025.

MOL Group has been active in Kazakhstan for over two decades and has invested $200 million in the development of the Rozhkovskoye gas condensate field in western Kazakhstan.

Final Report on AZAL Crash Near Aktau Expected by Year-End

Kazakhstan is set to complete its investigation into the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft near Aktau by the end of 2025. The announcement was made by Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev during a briefing in Astana.

Bozumbayev stated that the final report is nearing completion. “Our Ministry of Transport is working intensively, with international experts from various countries participating. Some of the equipment remains abroad for examination and will be returned soon. The analysis stage is coming to an end, and we are moving on to preparing the final report,” he said. “The final report will be available in a few months; the truth will be clear by the end of the year, and all requirements will be met to the letter.”

He also emphasized that it is too early to determine the cause of the damage to the aircraft. “These questions must be answered by explosive ordnance disposal experts, and that work is being carried out by law enforcement agencies,” he added.

The Embraer 190 aircraft, which was en route from Baku to Grozny, crashed near Aktau on December 25, 2024, after the crew reported damage to the fuselage and attempted an emergency landing. Of the 67 people on board, 38 died. The crash sparked an international controversy, with Baku accusing Russian air defense forces of striking the aircraft, an allegation Moscow has denied. Kazakhstan, as the country where the crash occurred, is conducting the investigation as a neutral party.

Bozumbayev confirmed that Kazakhstani experts have submitted formal requests to several countries whose weapons may match the damaging elements identified in the fuselage.

Among the victims were six Kazakh citizens. Despite this, Astana is refraining from issuing official claims against any foreign states. In contrast, Azerbaijan has announced its intention to seek compensation through international legal channels.