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29 Jul 2025

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Kazakhstan’s Birth Rate Continues to Fall Amid Demographic Concerns

July 29, 2025
By Vagit Ismailov

Kazakhstan is witnessing a sustained decline in its birth rate despite government efforts to stimulate demographic growth. In their latest report, analysts at Ranking.kz have explored why more Kazakhstanis are choosing to have fewer or no children, and what factors are driving this downward trend.

Sharp Decline in Newborn Numbers

According to official data, 77,300 children were born in the first quarter of 2025, a 15.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. This continues a multi-year decline: annual births dropped from 446,500 in 2021 to 365,900 in 2024.

Kazakhstan’s total fertility rate also reflects this trend. After peaking at 23.5 births per 1,000 people in 2021, the rate has steadily fallen to 18.2 in 2024 and further to 15.4 in early 2025.

Regionally, Mangistau and Turkestan remain the most fertile areas, with 21.3 births per 1,000 people, followed by Shymkent (19.7). The lowest rates are in North Kazakhstan (8.5), Kostanay (9.5), and East Kazakhstan (9.6).

Changing Attitudes Toward Parenthood

A 2024 national survey shows a growing reluctance among citizens to expand their families. Over half (51.3%) of respondents said they already have children and do not plan to have more. Only 13% hoped to have two children, 9.1% three, and 10.5% four or more. Meanwhile, 3.9% said they do not intend to have children at all, a sentiment more common in urban areas (4.5%) than in rural regions (3%).

Among urban parents, 52.4% said they would not have more children, compared to 49.5% in rural communities.

UN projections suggest Kazakhstan’s demographic decline will persist. The fertility rate is expected to dip to 19 in 2025, 17.6 in 2034, and continue falling to 11.4 by 2100, raising concerns about aging and the growing demographic burden.

Economic and Medical Challenges

According to the platform “Children of Kazakhstan”, economic hardship remains a central factor. Rising costs for housing, healthcare, and education have made child-rearing increasingly unaffordable, prompting many to delay or reconsider parenthood altogether.

Societal values are also shifting. More young Kazakhs are prioritizing education, careers, and personal development. Women, in particular, are pursuing higher education and professional goals before starting families.

Healthcare issues have further exacerbated the trend. The number of women diagnosed with infertility rose to 29,100 in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total for all of 2023 (28,500). This figure has climbed steadily from just 10,000 in 2019.

Male infertility is also rising, though the numbers are significantly lower. Reported cases increased from 36 in 2019 to 119 in 2021, before fluctuating slightly to 108 in 2023.

29 Jul 2025

Central Asia, Home, Uzbekistan, Life & Culture, Uzbekistan Home, Uzbekistan Life & Culture

Most Uzbeks Recognize Human Trafficking Risks, Survey Shows

July 29, 2025
By Sadokat Jalolova

July 30 marks World Day against Trafficking in Persons, a United Nations-designated observance established in 2013 to raise awareness about one of the most severe human rights violations globally. In conjunction with this date, Uzbekistan’s Ijtimoiy Fikr Center for Public Opinion Research has released the findings of a nationwide survey assessing public awareness of human trafficking and its associated risks.

According to the 2025 data, 61.3% of respondents reported being well informed about human trafficking. An additional 29.5% of respondents said they were familiar with the issue but lacked detailed knowledge. Experts caution that such informational gaps can foster misinformation if not addressed through credible sources. Encouragingly, the share of respondents unaware of trafficking risks has declined, reflecting the impact of ongoing awareness initiatives.

Television remains the primary source of information for 76.8% of respondents, followed by social media at 54.1%. While digital platforms are increasingly influential, the report underscored the importance of improving media literacy to curb the spread of disinformation. Traditional print media also remains relevant, particularly among older demographics, with 24% citing newspapers or magazines as their main source.

When asked how they would respond to a trafficking incident, 78.3% of respondents said they would report it to the police. Other authorities named included the Prosecutor’s Office (47.1%) and the Ombudsman (37.2%), while more than 27% said they would contact an anti-trafficking hotline.

Respondents identified the most common forms of trafficking as labor exploitation (68.9%), sexual exploitation (42.1%), illegal organ trade (24.3%), forced begging (23.2%), and child trafficking for adoption (21.3%).

Unemployment, economic hardship, and the promise of quick financial gain were cited as the main drivers behind trafficking. Job offers abroad, often made through acquaintances or online platforms, remain the most prevalent method of recruitment.

Reassuringly, 91.9% of respondents said they knew of cases where victims had been rescued and successfully reintegrated. Experts view this as a sign that current rescue and rehabilitation programs are making an impact.

While 73.1% believe the situation has improved over the past five years, Ijtimoiy Fikr emphasized that human trafficking remains a significant threat in Uzbekistan. The report calls for enhanced legal protections, expanded public education, and deeper international collaboration to maintain momentum.

The Center concluded that raising awareness, preventing exploitation, and supporting survivors must remain the core pillars of the national anti-trafficking strategy.

29 Jul 2025

Central Asia, Local Politics, Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan Local Politics

Kyrgyzstan Proposes Controversial Criminal Code Changes Targeting Recidivism, Limiting Official Liability

July 29, 2025
By Anton Chipegin

Kyrgyzstan’s Interior Ministry has submitted a bill aimed at restoring the concept of recidivism to the Criminal Code and limiting the liability of civil servants if their actions are deemed to protect national security. The proposal has sparked heated debate in both parliament and the public.

Proposed Changes

The draft law would reintroduce harsher penalties for repeat offenders. Recidivism, abolished in 2019 to ensure fairer treatment of convicted criminals, would once again become a legal category. According to the explanatory note, the earlier reform failed to yield the desired outcomes.

“The abolition of the concept of recidivism did not have the expected effect,” the note states. “Excluding harsher liability for members of organized criminal groups, who are often repeat offenders, has enabled them to consolidate and expand their influence.”

According to the bill’s proponents, nearly 90% of inmates in Kyrgyzstan have prior convictions. They argue that current parole and probation policies treat repeat offenders too leniently.

Combating organized crime has been a major priority in recent years. Dozens of so-called ‘thieves-in-law’ have been detained or neutralized, and suspects are now publicly compelled to renounce their criminal status. President Sadyr Japarov has already signed a law criminalizing the support or financing of criminal organizations.

“Organized crime poses a serious threat to national security and affects virtually all sectors of society,” the Cabinet said.

Under the proposed legislation, penalties for recidivism would be no less than half the maximum sentence for a given crime. In cases of “particularly dangerous recidivism,” the minimum would be two-thirds. Moreover, reconciliation between victim and perpetrator would no longer be grounds for dismissal of charges.

Authorities claim the measures will deter crime and diminish the appeal of criminal subcultures, particularly among young people.

Public Criticism

The most controversial element of the bill, however, is a provision that would exempt individuals from criminal liability if their actions were taken in defense of national sovereignty, the constitutional order, or environmental, economic, informational, or other forms of security.

Former MP Felix Kulov criticized the vague language of the proposal on social media, warning it could lead to legal abuse. He cited a hypothetical case in which an environmental activist seriously injures or kills a litterer, arguing the act could be wrongly justified as “defending environmental security.”

“Such additions clearly do not belong in Article 18 of the Criminal Code,” Kulov wrote. “The code already includes provisions for exceeding the limits of necessary defense and abuse of authority, and these new clauses would contradict them.”

Current MP Dastan Bekeshev reacted more bluntly: “This is crazy. If the law is passed, what is the point of justice at all?”

The draft law is now under review in the parliament. If adopted, it would represent one of the most significant overhauls of Kyrgyzstan’s criminal legislation in recent years.

29 Jul 2025

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Kazakhstani Opera Talent Aigerim Altynbek Wins Contest in Italy

July 29, 2025
By Times of Central Asia

Kazakhstani soprano Aigerim Altynbek believes “greater heights” await after she came first in an international opera singing competition in Italy.

Altynbek was among singers from 50 countries competing in the Concorso Lirico Internazionale di Portofino (CLIP) in the scenic harbor village of Portofino. The competition, which began in 2015, aims to support young talents and many of its winners and finalists have embarked on successful careers.

“I want to share some incredibly joyful news with you!” Altynbek posted on Instagram after she was awarded first prize on Sunday. “This was a truly special experience for me – and I believe even greater heights lie ahead.”

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated Altynbek.

“This achievement, which has made our country’s culture known to the world and has been recognized by international experts, is of great significance,” Tokayev said. “You have made our state proud and brought our native art to the forefront of the world.”

Altynbek performed a duet last month with Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli at Pompeii, days after an appearance with Spanish tenor José Carreras in Astana. She has already received a number of accolades, including first prize in the Città di Arcore – Giacomo Puccini opera singing competition in Italy last year. She has been studying in Italy after graduating from the Kazakh National University of Arts.

29 Jul 2025

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Opinion: Ghosts of the Gulag: Kazakhstan’s Uneasy Dance With Memory and Moscow

October 21, 2025
By Manon Madec

In May 2025, the authorities in Moscow unveiled a life-size bas‑relief sculpture of Josef Stalin in the Taganskaya metro station. The next month, a statue of Lenin was pulled down in Osh, Kyrgyzstan. Between these two symbolic acts lies Kazakhstan, caught in a tug-of-war over the memory of Soviet-era repression.

Between 1920 and 1960, millions of prisoners were deported to more than fifty labor camps across what was later to become the Republic of Kazakhstan. Those who weren’t executed on the spot — political opponents, intellectuals, artists — were forced to work in mines, construction sites, or collective farms feeding Soviet industrial expansion. The death toll remains unknown but is believed to be in the millions.

Today, this dark past draws in history buffs and thrill-seekers. But darktourism.com, the go-to website on the topic, warns them: forgotten cemeteries, ghost villages, crumbling camps — this gulag archipelago is well hidden in the steppes. No sign points the way to the Museum of Political Repression in Dolinka, housed in the former headquarters of Karlag, one of the largest camps of the Soviet Gulag system.

The only other gulag transformed into a museum is ALZHIR, built on the ruins of the Akmola camp near Astana. It commemorates the 18,000 women imprisoned between 1939 and 1953 for being the wives of “traitors to the motherland.” These two museums now stand as official symbols of Soviet repression in Kazakhstan, and, more subtly, as frontline sites in a broader memory war across the former Soviet Union.

Selective Memory

When the museums were nationalized in the 2000s, their message became tightly controlled. Portraits and quotes from former president Nursultan Nazarbayev began to cover the walls. Guillaume Tiberghien, a specialist in dark tourism at the University of Glasgow, calls it a “selective interpretation of history.” The goal? To unify the country’s 160 ethnic groups under a shared narrative of collective suffering. At both Karlag and ALZHIR, guides emphasize acts of solidarity between Kazakh villagers and deportees — hospitality, compassion, bits of cheese tossed over barbed wire fences to feed the starving.

Execution scene recreated at the Karlag museum; image: Manon Madec.

The past is staged. Between wax statues with sunken faces, sound effects mimicking heartbeats, and torture room reconstructions, the visitor is drawn into a visceral experience, sometimes at the cost of accuracy. “You wonder if the museum overdoes it to trigger emotion,” Tiberghien remarks. Margaret Comer, a memory studies expert at the University of Warsaw, explains: “It’s sometimes easier to mourn victims than to identify perpetrators.”

Execution scene and fake blood, reconstructed in the Dolinka museum; image: Manon Madec.

The complicity of local Kazakhs is never addressed. Russian responsibility is blurred behind vague terms like “NKVD” or “Stalinist repression.” At ALZHIR, visitors learn only about Sergey Barinov — a Russian commandant described as cultured, discreet, and caring toward the women detained. The other two camp directors are never mentioned.

In other former Soviet republics — Ukraine, the Baltics, Georgia — such neutrality would be unthinkable. “There, any figure linked to the Soviet regime is fiercely contested,” Comer notes.

Memory Wars

Tensions have sharpened since the war in Ukraine. In the background, Putin has accelerated the rehabilitation of Stalin, architect of the gulag archipelago. His busts are reappearing across Russia. Volgograd’s airport has been renamed “Stalingrad.” In occupied Melitopol, a new statue of the dictator was erected. “We’re witnessing a broad return of repressive memory politics in Russia,” says Tiberghien.

Former Soviet republics have taken note. “In Eastern Europe, especially the Baltics, every commemoration now includes a warning about today’s Russian threat,” Comer explains. Even in Central Asia — typically cautious — the decolonial narrative is gaining ground. In Kazakhstan, “some people now fear that Russia might one day cross the border,” she adds.

“The country is walking a tightrope,” Tiberghien explains. “It wants to keep things calm, to avoid upsetting Russia.” This balancing act was evident in President Tokayev’s speech on May 31, the official Day of Remembrance for Victims of Political Repression. While calling for the rehabilitation of victims and better access to archives, he also condemned the “instrumentalization” of history and urged the nation to look forward.

Museums mirror this caution. At ALZHIR, the May 31 commemorations are now held indoors, away from public view. A guide quietly admits she’s not allowed to comment on the closure of Russian memorial museums: “It might offend Russian tourists.” At Karlag, between two torture exhibits, visitors learn about inmate-led innovations: giant sunflowers, new cattle breeds, the Chizhevsky chandelier. “There’s an emphasis on what the prison system ‘contributed’ to the nation,” Comer notes. In this anniversary year of the Great Patriotic War, “the focus is more on Karlag’s role in victory than on mourning the victims,” adds Tiberghien.

Collective Amnesia

Why this insistence on what the gulag ‘contributed’? “There are conflicts of interest and truths people would rather not face. What tourists see is a compromise — one that works for the state and local communities,” Tiberghien emphasizes.

As a result, much of the Soviet legacy remains buried. Literally. “Around ALZHIR and in the Karaganda region, there are mass graves everywhere,” Tiberghien notes. The Mamochkino cemetery, near Karlag, is one of the few memorial sites dedicated to women and children who perished in the camps. It, too, lies neglected. Tiberghien speaks of a “collective amnesia” that obstructs historical reckoning.

The Mamochkino cemetery, left abandoned near the Karlag museum; image: Manon Madec

In Karaganda, Dimitry Kalmykov, director of the local Ecological Museum, sees an unspoken deal: “The state doesn’t want to reopen the file, and the Kazakhs aren’t demanding it.” The fear of speaking out, he says, has been passed down across generations. Kalmikov himself learned little about the USSR at school. What he knows, he read on his own.

But resources are fading. The archives are sealed by Russia. “The question isn’t when we’ll get access, but whether we ever will,” says one museum historian.

Gulags are not the only legacy at risk of being forgotten. The Soviet nuclear past is quietly vanishing too. “The Kurchatov museum has been closed to the public since 2023,” says Tiberghien. There, deformed animals preserved in jars bore witness to radiation damage. In Semipalatinsk, visits are increasingly rare, bogged down in bureaucracy. “Even the website listing radiation data has disappeared,” confirms Kalmykov.

In Karaganda, Lenin’s statue, stripped of its name, still stands; image: Manon Madec

What path will Kazakhstan choose? The future of its memory may lie in the hands of researchers, citizens, and akimats — those determined not to repeat the past. For now, the statue of Lenin still stands watch over Karaganda. But for how much longer?

29 Jul 2025

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Potential Mass Expulsion of Migrants Looms in Russia

October 20, 2025
By Bruce Pannier

Russia introduced new regulations for foreign citizens in the country on February 5, and started keeping a list at the Interior Ministry of foreigners who are living or staying in Russia without proper documentation, the “controlled persons registry.” The rules are aimed at migrant laborers working in Russia, many of whom come from Central Asian countries.

Russia has set a September 10 deadline for foreigners in the country to clear up all their paperwork with the authorities or face expulsion with a ban on re-entry. Judging by recent comments from Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador to Russia, Kubanychbek Bokontayev, many might not make that September 10 deadline.

Needed but Not Desired

Over the course of the last two decades, millions of citizens from Central Asian countries have worked in Russia. Most are from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

The remittances they send home have grown to the point where this money now accounts for nearly 40% of the GDP in Tajikistan, 24% in Kyrgyzstan, and 14% in Uzbekistan. Most of these remittances come from Russia.

Russia badly needs the extra workers, and, until recently, the arrangement seemed to suit all parties. But the March 2024 terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall changed the situation.

The Russian authorities detained and charged a group of Tajik nationals for the attack, and the always simmering xenophobia in Russia, particularly toward Central Asians, boiled over.

New rules and restrictions have been imposed on migrant workers.

Those that came into force in February this year were only the latest in a series of changes that already included mandatory fingerprinting and photographs upon entry to Russia, a reduction in the term of stay from 180 to 90 days, and an increasing list of infractions that provide grounds for deportation.

In 2024, Russia expelled some 157,000 migrants who were in the country illegally, which, according to Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, was an increase of some 50% over 2023.

The Clock Is Ticking

At the start of February, just before the latest regulations came into effect, Russia’s Deputy Interior Minister Aleksandr Gorovoi said there were some 670,000 foreigners living illegally in Russia. Gorovoi added that more than half were women and children, “those who entered, but we do not see that they received a patent registered with the migration service… [or] that an employment agreement was concluded with them.”

On July 24, Kyrgyz media outlet AKIpress published an interview with the Kyrgyz Ambassador to Russia, Bokontayev, in which he said that at the start of July, there were some 113,000 Kyrgyz citizens on the controlled persons registry, which he referred to as the “gray list.” He also said there were some 80,000 Kyrgyz citizens on the “black list” of people barred from entering Russia.

In a separate interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Kyrgyz Service published on July 25, Kyrgyzstan’s General Consul in Russia, Bakyt Asanaliyev, said that about 30% of the Kyrgyz citizens on the gray list are children. Ambassador Bokontayev said Kyrgyzstan’s embassy is working to make sure those currently on the gray list do not end up on the black list.

Citizens on the gray list have additional restrictions placed upon them until they clear up their status. Among these are prohibitions on driving, marrying, traveling within Russia, changing their place of residency, opening a bank account, or spending more than 30,000 rubles (about $351) per month from existing Russian bank accounts.

Bokontayev noted that from February to the end of April, only some 4,000 Kyrgyz citizens on the gray list had legalized their status, and by the start of July, the figure was more than 7,000.

The pace could be quickening.

Asanaliyev said the number dropped from 113,000 at the start of July to 103,000 a little more than three weeks into July, though Bokontayev pointed out that it is difficult to give exact numbers as Russia’s Interior Ministry updates the controlled persons registry every six hours. Those who have successfully completed their registration are removed, while those recently caught without all the necessary documents are added.

With only some 17,000 Kyrgyz citizens having made themselves legal in Russia since February, it seems unlikely that all the remaining Kyrgyz citizens on the gray list will clear up their living or working status by September 10. Bokontayev noted there are long lines at Russia’s facilities for registering migrants, and the process of filling out paperwork and other requirements is time-consuming.

Easier for the Kyrgyz Than Others

The number of Central Asian migrant laborers has been declining in recent years due to tightening restrictions, increased xenophobia, and the fear, among males, of being pressured or forced into joining the Russian military and sent to fight in Ukraine.

In May 2023, Kyrgyzstan’s Labor Ministry reported that the number of Kyrgyz citizens working as migrant laborers in 2022 was more than 1.5 million, of which 1.063 million were in Russia.

In January 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry said the number of Kyrgyz citizens living and working in Russia dropped to some 650,000 in 2023 and to some 350,000 in 2024. Ambassador Bokontayev cited figures from Russia’s Interior Ministry that showed the number of Kyrgyz citizens in Russia in the first quarter of 2025 was some 352,000.

Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a group that also includes Armenia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As an EAEU member, Kyrgyzstan’s citizens, including migrant laborers, are given easier access to other member countries and enjoy social benefits, such as healthcare, not given to people from non-member countries.

Citizens from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan staying or working in Russia face greater challenges than Kyrgyz in entering Russia and obtaining all the needed official approvals. There are far more Tajik and Uzbek migrant laborers in Russia than Kyrgyz. It is unclear how many Tajik and Uzbek citizens are on the gray list, but almost certainly it is more than Kyrgyz. If citizens from Kyrgyzstan, an EAEU member, are having such a hard time legally registering themselves in Russia, it is likely more difficult for Tajik and Uzbek citizens.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov visited Russia at the start of July and met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Japarov asked for Russian assistance in getting Kyrgyz citizens legally registered in Russia before September 10. The Tajik and Uzbek governments are likely also working with the Russian authorities to ensure as many of their citizens as possible meet the looming deadline.

The sudden return from Russia of even tens of thousands of Central Asian citizens to their home countries, where most would join the ranks of the unemployed, is not something the Central Asian leaders want to see. Such a scenario could spark social tensions.

Russia, too, would prefer to keep at least most of the migrant workforce, though Russian officials have already made it clear that they do not want wives and children accompanying Central Asian migrant laborers to Russia.

Some sort of compromise seems likely, but the Russian authorities might start mass expulsions after the deadline just to demonstrate that they are serious about having migrants in the country working and legally registered.