The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated dramatically, with Israel launching large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, including the killing of top Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists. Characterizing these attacks as a “declaration of war,” Iran has retaliated by deploying approximately 100 drones toward Israeli territory, which have been intercepted. The strikes, part of Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion,” aim to neutralize what it perceives as an existential threat from Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The situation has triggered reactions globally, with heightened tensions and calls for de-escalation. Meanwhile, in an interview with ABC News, U.S. President Trump called the strikes “excellent” and vowed there was “more to come. A lot more.”

The rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran will undoubtedly exert a tangible influence on Central Asia, a region that shares both historical and geographic proximity to Iran. Turkmenistan, which directly borders Iran, is at the forefront, demonstrating how Central Asia sits strategically within a broader landscape of global power struggles.

Geopolitical Tensions Within Reach

Central Asia’s geographic and political ties to Iran make the region a key area of influence for Tehran. Iran’s relationship with Turkmenistan, grounded in a shared border and energy cooperation, highlights its immediate relevance. Turkmenistan and Iran collaborate on trade and natural gas exports, ensuring intertwined economies. However, these connections make Central Asia exposed to the consequences of Tehran’s ambitions, particularly as tensions with Israel spill over.

Israel, meanwhile, has been steadily cultivating its influence in the region through strategic partnerships. Its strong alliance with Azerbaijan, Iran’s neighboring competitor to the north, has allowed Israel to counter Tehran’s reach. Additionally, Israel has deepened ties with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, offering expertise in cutting-edge technologies in agriculture, water-saving technologies, defense, and cybersecurity. This influence balances Iran’s predominance but risks elevating the regional stakes should the conflict further intensify.

The nations of Central Asia are navigating a multitude of competing external pressures close to home, relying on multi-vector diplomacy to manage relationships with Iran, Israel, Russia, China, and the West.

Economic Interdependence and Vulnerabilities

Central Asia’s landlocked geography makes trade routes essential, with Iran serving as a critical gateway to global markets. The Bandar Abbas port facilitates the export of Central Asian goods, particularly for Turkmenistan. In January, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Iran reaffirmed their commitment to increasing cargo transportation along the North-South transport corridor. However, sanctions on Tehran and the conflict’s unpredictability cast uncertainty over these vital corridors.

The Chabahar port, developed in partnership with India, is another crucial lifeline for trade. Unlike Pakistan’s China-aligned Gwadar port, Chabahar links Central Asia to the Indian Ocean, offering a more stable and independent trade route. For nations like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the port diversifies transit options and reduces reliance on routes controlled by Russia or China.

Social Dynamics and Security Challenges

Culturally and religiously, Sunni-majority countries like Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan remain alert to both Iranian propaganda and organizations like Hamas, which are considered destabilizing actors. Governments actively look to suppress rhetoric or movements that could spark unrest, prioritizing internal stability.

Cross-border dynamics, especially in Turkmenistan, amplify these issues. Reports of Iranian proxies recruiting militants from Central Asia emphasize the region’s growing security concerns. Late last year, the authorities in Israel labeled the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kagan in the UAE, purportedly carried out by three Uzbek nationals, an act of “terrorism”.

In September 2024, meanwhile, Uzbekistan backed a UN General Assembly resolution calling for Israel to withdraw its forces from occupied Palestinian territories, whilst in November the Kyrgyz authorities were signatories to a Turkish call for an arms embargo against Israel.

Global Powers and Their Roles

Central Asia’s geopolitical relevance ensures interest from larger powers. Russia’s coordination with Iran underpins Tehran’s position in the region, though Moscow’s focus on Ukraine has somewhat diluted its influence. China, conversely, prioritizes stability to safeguard its Belt and Road Initiative, steering clear of deep involvement in the Middle East but subtly opposing U.S.-backed dynamics.

For the United States, Central Asia offers a frontier to challenge Iranian and Russian influence. Through its C5+1 framework, Washington has sought to foster partnerships and mitigate Tehran’s regional power, while aligning with Israel as a key Middle Eastern ally.

Regional Responses to the Escalation

The Central Asian nations have reacted cautiously to the growing conflict. Kazakhstan’s embassy in Tel Aviv has issued safety advisories for its citizens, emphasizing the importance of following Israeli Home Front Command directives, staying vigilant, and utilizing emergency hotlines. Kazakh airlines, including Air Astana and FlyArystan, have rerouted flights to avoid Iranian and Iraqi airspace, impacting popular routes to destinations such as Dubai and Doha.

Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry has released similar warnings, urging its citizens in both Iran and Israel to remain cautious, carry essential documents, and follow instructions from the local authorities. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan have yet to issue any formal statements but are said to remain on high alert.

A Delicate Equation for Central Asia

For Central Asia, and particularly Turkmenistan, with its direct border to Iran, the Israel-Iran conflict is neither distant nor abstract. The region’s proximity to this escalating rivalry amplifies its need for strategic diplomacy. Iran’s trade networks and energy links remain vital, while Israel offers modernization and technological advancements. Balancing these competing relationships without being drawn into broader conflicts will require calculated neutrality and adaptable policies.

As tensions mount, Central Asian nations face both risks and opportunities. Protecting sovereignty, fostering balanced foreign relations, and preparing for potential regional disruptions are critical as the world watches this volatile situation unfold, with Central Asia occupying a crucial intersection.