The five Central Asian republics are actively building ties with the outside world, trying to balance the influence of China and Russia in the region. For the former Soviet republics, the Middle East was, until recently, a kind of terra incognita since Moscow carried out all contacts with the area. However, since the nineties, thanks to a growing friendship with Turkey, Kazakhstan, followed by other Central Asian republics, have begun establishing diplomatic, cultural, and trade ties with the Middle East and North African countries. Another escalation in the Middle East has forced the diplomatic departments of the Central Asian countries, whilst avoiding any accusations against either side in the conflict, to inform their citizens about and the address the fate of their compatriots who have found themselves at the epicenter of events.

Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, law enforcement agencies reacted before diplomats. Shyngys Alekeshev, head of the Interior Ministry’s Information Policy Department, said in response to journalists’ inquiries that police in the republic have brought their patrol routes closer to synagogues and Israeli diplomatic facilities.

Later, official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Aibek Smadiarov, said that no Kazakh citizens were injured as a result of the armed escalation between Iran and Israel, and urged Kazakh citizens in the Middle East to exercise caution.

“The Kazakh Foreign Ministry expresses deep concern about the increasing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. We call on all parties involved to exercise restraint and refrain from using forceful methods to avoid civilian casualties and further escalation of the situation in the region, which could provoke a full-scale war. In this regard, we note the importance of taking early measures to resolve differences exclusively through political and diplomatic means within the framework of the principles of the UN Charter and international law,” said Smadiarov.

According to the representative, 120 citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan, including diplomats and their family members, are registered as being present in Israel, 102 in Iran, and 139 in Lebanon.

“Communication channels have been created with citizens who are in these countries. Constant communication is maintained with them, and necessary recommendations are given depending on the development of the situation in one country or another. Several times, embassies have announced the need to leave the country due to the aggravation of military and political situations. At the same time, the Ministry and authorized bodies are monitoring the situation to work out possible repatriation flights. The evacuation of our citizens is still under consideration and the special control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” said Smadiarov.

Kyrgyzstan

The Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry stated on October 2 that it is deeply concerned about events taking place in the Middle East, stating that it is calling on “the conflicting parties to respect the fundamental principles and norms of international law, including refraining from actions leading to an escalation of the situation in the region. The Kyrgyz Republic urges the global community to completely stop military action as soon as possible, and start a political dialog and peaceful settlement of conflicts.”

The Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry has recommended its citizens refrain from visiting Israel, Iran, and Lebanon because of increased risks associated with instability in the region.

“Citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic who are already in the Middle East region are advised to strengthen their security measures, avoid mass gatherings, as well as strictly follow the requirements and recommendations of the official authorities of the host country,” the Ministry summarized.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan believes that settling conflicts in the Middle East requires the creation of a sovereign Palestinian State. However, speeches and rallies supporting this position remain prohibited within the country.

The Uzbek Foreign Ministry commented on the situation in the Middle East on October 3, packing the issue into a press release filled with other responses to inquiries from the republic’s mass media. In particular, questions about the results of the Uzbek delegation’s participation in the UN General Assembly and the Ministry’s attitude towards the strike on the residence of the UAE ambassador in Khartoum were also raised by the media.

The Foreign Ministry said the Uzbek embassy in Israel is working in a reinforced mode, keeping in touch with the state’s authorities and its citizens in the country.

“On the website and pages of the embassy on social networks there are recommendations on personal safety, in particular the need to take cover in bomb shelters during rocket attacks, follow official messages, always carry identity documents and contact information of the Embassy of Uzbekistan. On a 24/7 basis, citizens needing assistance or advice may contact the diplomatic mission by calling the numbers distributed through social networks and personal contacts. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan is constantly monitoring the situation,” the Ministry summarized.

Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan’s government agencies have not reacted to the escalation in the Middle East. A country with its borders largely closed to its citizens, Turkmenistan has no known citizens in Israel, Iran, or Lebanon.

Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry website, meanwhile, contains a statement dated October 1 regarding its official reaction to the strike on the UAE ambassador’s residence in Khartoum and information dated October 3 about a meeting between the republic’s ambassador and Iran’s Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance. Nothing further has been forthcoming.

A Delicate balance

In conclusion it is fair to say that the Central Asian republics are navigating a complex geopolitical landscape as they respond to rising tensions in the Middle East, prioritizing the safety of their citizens abroad, while maintaining a delicate diplomatic stance. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have taken proactive measures to ensure the security of their nationals, emphasizing the need for political dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution. These efforts reflect a broader strategy of balancing the influence of major powers, such as China and Russia, while expanding diplomatic and economic connections with the wider world. Such a position is indicative of a growing commitment to active participation in international affairs, and Central Asia’s evolving role on the world stage.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the forecasts for Uzbekistan’s economy are optimistic. The economy continues to grow actively; however, risks and opportunities remain. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and continuing to implement structural reforms is necessary to sustain high growth rates, restore buffer stocks, and protect against external shocks.

The economy grew by 6.4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Due to an increase in energy prices in early May, overall inflation increased from 8% at the end of April to around 10.5% recently. The underlying inflation rate rose more moderately, reaching 7% in August, up by one percentage point since June. Remittances increased by 32% in the first seven months of 2024, and international reserves are still substantial, covering 9.5 months of imports as of August.

Economic growth is expected to stay above 5.5% this year and next, driven by strong investments and reforms. Inflation is predicted to gradually decline due to tighter monetary and fiscal policies and the fading impact of energy price hikes. The current account deficit is expected to decrease to 6.25% of GDP in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025, supported by strong exports, remittances, and fewer large machinery imports. Risks include regional challenges, fluctuating commodity prices, a possible global slowdown, and issues with state-owned enterprises or partnerships. Opportunities may come from increased financial flows, remittances, and higher gold prices.

The impact of energy price hikes in May 2024 and wage increases in September-October 2024 could lead to higher inflation. Experts recommend that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan keep interest rates high until there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing. The bank should also be prepared to raise rates further if inflation rises more than expected.

The 4th International Festival of Poetry and Visual Arts, “Voices of Friends: Poetry & Art 2024” took place from September 15 to 18 in the scenic Burabay National Park, Kazakhstan. The festival, organized by the Eurasian Creative Guild (London) and supported by various local entities, showcased a vibrant blend of poetry, visual arts, literature, and cinema. It included the 13th Open Eurasian Literary Festival and Book Forum, the third Burabay International Short Film Festival (BISFF), and the inaugural Future Cinema youth film festival. More than 50 creative individuals from 15 countries, including Kazakhstan, the UK, Belarus, Israel, the UAE, and the U.S., participated, bringing a rich tapestry of cultural expressions to the event.

The festival featured an array of activities, started with an introductory meeting and progressing through screenings, presentations, and master classes. Highlights included the introduction of youth films and the BISFF screenings, which received over 80 submissions, celebrating diverse stories through film. Noteworthy films, such as In Search of Healing Water: Chunja-Burabay-Dushanbe and Teacher on Stage were showcased. The festival also encompassed literary salons, art presentations, roundtable discussions on tourism, and a charity auction, providing attendees with a deep dive into the creative and cultural industries.

The festival concluded with award ceremonies celebrating achievements in film, poetry, and visual arts. Winners in various categories were recognized, such as Best Short Film awarded to As Easy As Closing Your Eyes from the United States, and announcements for future events were made. With over 500 guests, the event underscored its stated objective of celebrating the power of art to bridge cultures and enhance mutual understanding among diverse communities. The next Guild Festival will be held in Scotland later in the year.

Despite the launch of the construction of the Kambarata-1 hydroelectric power plant, Kyrgyzstan needs more electricity. One solution could be to launch small hydropower plants.

Officials said building such plants on the country’s numerous rivers is not costly. According to the Kyrgyz Energy Ministry, commissioning such HPPs could take only 1.5-2 years.

There are currently 24 small hydropower plants in operation in the country, and there is potential for more than 80 more.

In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyz Deputy Energy Minister Nurlan Sadykov said that every citizen has the opportunity to build a small hydropower plant. Startup permits can be obtained quite easily.

“We have a Green Energy Fund, which is authorized to issue land for small-scale energy needs, including the construction of solar panels and wind farms. This body holds a competition where anyone can participate equally, whether a Kyrgyz citizen or a foreign investor. The main thing is to confirm your financial capabilities,” Sadykov said.

Sadykov said most investors borrow from local or international banks in one way or another. The authorities can guarantee the return of invested funds through electricity tariffs.

“A presidential decree has been issued. According to the document, the state is guaranteed to buy electricity. If the investor wants to receive money for generated electricity in foreign currency, the state can provide payments in US dollars,” the deputy minister emphasized.

Chinese and Russian companies are interested in building renewable energy sources in Kyrgyzstan. A campaign to raise funds from local businessmen is also underway.

It is worth noting that Kyrgyzstan is experiencing an increase in electricity consumption. The country produces about 14 billion kilowatt-hours annually, but consumption, especially in winter, can reach 17 billion kilowatt-hours. To compensate for the missing electricity, the authorities import it from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

The growing conflict between Israel and Iran has disrupted international air travel in the Middle East, and Central Asia is grappling with cancellations and rerouted flights to and from the region.

Flynas, a low-cost Saudi airline, and Qeshm Air, an Iranian carrier, have temporarily canceled flights to Uzbekistan “due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the closure of part of the airspace,” the state-run Uzbekistan Airports company said on Telegram on Wednesday.

The cancellations were a Flynas flight on the Jeddah-Tashkent-Jeddah route; another roundtrip Flynas flight from Jeddah to the Uzbek city of Namangan and back; and a Qeshm Air flight from Tehran to Tashkent and back to the Iranian capital, according to the Uzbek company. It advised travelers to check departure information with airline representatives.

Air Astana, Kazakhstan’s national carrier, said it had decided to bypass Iran’s airspace on its flights to Dubai after analyzing the situation in the Middle East and following guidance from the national aviation authorities.

“As a result, the flight routes from Astana and Almaty to Dubai will be altered, and flight time will be extended,” Air Astana said on Telegram. “Flights to Jeddah will remain unchanged but may be reconsidered if military activity in the region escalates. If necessary, the airline will implement additional changes to ensure flight safety.”

Aviation authorities of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport have advised domestic airlines to avoid Iranian airspace, according to Kazinform, a state-run news agency.

The flight disruptions came after Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, and Israel warned that it will respond forcefully to the attack. The confrontation threatens a broader conflict in the region as Israel is already conducting military operations against two Iran-backed groups, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.