The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) airplane in Aktau, Kazakhstan, has the potential to significantly effect Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia if Moscow mishandles the situation. To date, there has been a lack of transparency and responsiveness on the part of the Kremlin. The implications could include accelerating the deterioration of Moscow’s influence in the region. These implications, therefore, concern not only the local countries, but any international actor having strategic interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, or otherwise concerned with their future role and place in the evolving post–Cold War international system.
The Facts of the Disaster
Given the rapid dissemination of information in the 2020s by electronic means, whereby authentic real-time videos made by first responders to the fuselage on the ground were uploaded to social media and available worldwide within minutes, the overall outline and some details of the incident are by now generally well known.
The airplane was en route from Baku to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, when explosions in the air damaged the cabin. Very soon after, but not as a result of these explosions, the pilots completely lost all electronic orientation and navigation capabilities. According to one source close to Azerbaijan’s investigation into the crash, preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system and its communications were then paralyzed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny. Ukrainian military drones have repeatedly targeted Russia’s southern regions, triggering Russian air defenses. “No one claims that it was done on purpose,” the source said; but “taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft.”
After being hit, the plane was refused emergency landing permission at Grozny (2.5 kilometers from where the incident occurred) and at least two other Russian airports in the North Caucasus (Makhachkala, 155 kilometers away, and Mineral’nye Vody, 225 kilometers), before being directed by local air control out over the Caspian Sea. Once there, the pilots made the decision to try to land in Aktau (435 kilometers away). Against all odds, they succeeded in avoiding the need to ditch the aircraft into the sea, which would have undoubtedly killed all on board and also destroyed the craft, making any investigation into what had happened impossible. In the event, according to the Kazakhstani authorities, out of 62 passengers and five crew, 32 survivors were initially rescued.
Captain Igor Kshnyakin, Co-pilot (First Officer) Alexander Kalyaninov, and Purser Hokuma Aliyeva died when the front wheel touched down ahead of the back wheels, as a result of which the cockpit was thrown violently away from the ongoing wreck. However, this is what created the conditions for at least some of the passengers to survive, as it split the fuselage in two. The event has garnered international attention, including for the professionalism of the crew.
What Has Happened Since
At first, Kazakhstan declared its own unilateral competence to investigate the crash, which occurred on its sovereign territory, rejecting requests by both Azerbaijan and Russia to participate in the investigation while proposing that they only observe proceedings. Oddly, Kazakhstan then proposed jointly with Russia that the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) should undertake the investigation.
A report then surfaced in Kazakhstani and Russian media that the flight’s oxygen tank, or else an oxygen cylinder that a passenger had somehow managed to take into the cabin, had exploded. These claims were separately refuted by the two surviving flight attendants. They explained that in the case of an oxygen tank, the fuselage would have been in pieces in the air with no survivors at all, and that taking an oxygen cylinder on board simply did not happen due to inspections. Azerbaijan soundly rejected the IAC forum, understanding that Kazakhstan may not have full independence in its investigation and that Baku would therefore be outnumbered at the IAC.
Azerbaijan is demanding that the incident be investigated by an international group of experts and specialists on the Embraer aircraft that was involved, and has already sent an investigative team, including experts from Turkey, to Grozny to begin to undertake its own examination of the facts. According to the latest reports, they will participate in Kazakhstan’s investigation.
Azerbaijan has already revoked permits for Russian airlines to fly to Azerbaijani airports, and a number of international airlines have suspended flights to Russia on either a temporary or a permanent basis.
Significance for Azerbaijan–Russia Relations
On November 9, 2020, just after Azerbaijani forces had captured the city of Shusha during the Second Karabakh War and were preparing to enter the capital Khankendi only 10 kilometers away, a Russian helicopter took to the air far away, but less than one kilometer from the border of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave with Armenia. This was not a regular maneuver; the helicopter did not identify itself, and it was shot down.
Russia immediately demanded not only an acknowledgment, apology, and compensation, but also that Azerbaijan should immediately halt its preparations to enter Khankendi from Shusha and cease all military activities in Karabakh. In all these matters, including the unrelated demand for a ceasefire, Azerbaijan acquiesced.
While this event has not formally been invoked by officials in Baku, it establishes a baseline for what Azerbaijan might expect in the nature of a Russian response to the airplane shot down over Grozny, resulting in its crash near Aktau. Likewise, since the 2020 event saw Azerbaijan offering compensation for the Russian helicopter crew, this will be plausibly regarded in Baku as a precedent likely influencing expectations in the current scenario.
The helicopter incident in 2020 was more of a bilateral issue between Azerbaijan and Russia that received less international scrutiny. However, the AZAL airplane crash is already attracting more global attention due to the involvement of civilian lives, international air travel, and the implications for aviation safety over or near Russian territory.
Azerbaijan’s immediate apology in 2020 helped mitigate potential escalation. In contrast, the recent incident in Kazakhstan has led to more significant public outcry and demands for accountability from Russia, possibly because of the civilian nature of the crash and the potentially more severe implications for air travel safety.
In Azerbaijan, the crew are regarded as heroes. Newsweek magazine quoted an American expert as saying, “These pilots didn’t just fly the plane — they fought it every step of the way. This level of skill and composure is what separates extraordinary pilots from the rest. What they achieved is nothing short of miraculous.” The three deceased crew-members, already lionized by the public for their heroism, have been buried in the Second Alley of Honor in Baku.
What Happens Next?
Azerbaijan earlier rejected an offer from the Chechen authorities of financial aid to the families of those killed or injured, replying that, “We are fully capable of supporting our citizens and will continue to do so. What Azerbaijan demands [from official Moscow] is an acknowledgment of the incident, an apology, and appropriate compensation.”
In the event, when Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned to his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev, all that was offered was acknowledgment. Carefully reading the reports of Putin’s telephone call to Aliyev reveals that Russia has not admitted responsibility. Rather, Putin expressed regret that the event had occurred in Russian airspace. There was no admission of responsibility, no apology, and no offer of compensation to families. Yet it is clear by now that there were military mistakes requiring a criminal investigation to uncover the truth.
More than that, there have been suggestions that Russian air traffic control prevented the AZAL plane from landing at nearby airports in the North Caucasus. We know that the plane did not land in the North Caucasus, and there are unconfirmed reports that it was denied landing at least two airports. The information available is not conclusive, but if confirmed, this would indicate criminal intent.
If confirmed, then observers would draw the conclusion that there may even have been instructions given to the aircraft, which had lost all GPS orientation because of electronic warfare supposedly deployed against Ukrainian drones, that directed it out over the Caspian Sea where — and but for the expertise and dedication of the cockpit crew — it would have crashed without survivors and been lost without significant trace.
The Russian Federation’s conduct regarding the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) and its subsequent investigation, would then be invoked to malign Moscow’s motives. The strong appearance would be created that, once Russian authorities realized what had happened, they tried to make the evidence (an airplane full of human beings) disappear.
The Geopolitical Stakes
The crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight in Aktau has highlighted not only the dangers of overflying Russian territory, but also the strained dynamics between Moscow and Baku. As Azerbaijan continues to demand accountability, Russia’s response — or lack thereof — will undoubtedly influence the trajectory of their bilateral relations and the broader regional equilibrium. Whether Moscow will acknowledge its potential culpability and take steps to address the implications remains to be seen. What is certain is that this tragedy has brought the geopolitical stakes of the South Caucasus and its neighboring regions into sharper focus.
The Azerbaijan Airlines crash has the potential to accelerate a strategic recalibration in the South Caucasus. If Russia continues its pattern of opacity and deflection, it risks alienating not only Azerbaijan but also other regional actors who may see Moscow as an unreliable partner. In contrast, Azerbaijan stands to gain greater international sympathy and leverage by positioning itself as a victim of Russian negligence or aggression.
This event may further tilt the balance of power in favor of Turkey and the West, eroding Russia’s ability to act as the dominant arbiter in the region. Over time, this could lead to a redefinition of the South Caucasus, not as a Russian sphere of influence, but as a contested space where multiple powers compete for economic and strategic advantage. For Azerbaijan, the incident offers a moment to assert its sovereignty and reshape its foreign policy trajectory in a way that diminishes Moscow’s hold over the region.
