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Tajikistan Slips in Global Peace Index But Maintains Upper-Half Ranking

Tajikistan ranked 72nd out of 163 countries in the 2024 edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), published by the Institute for Economics and Peace. While the country dropped two places compared to the previous year, it remains in the upper half of the ranking, reflecting a decade of gradual improvement. Understanding the Peace Index The GPI is based on 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators assessing internal and external conflicts, levels of crime, political stability, military expenditure, and the degree of militarization. Scores range from 1 to 5, with lower scores indicating higher levels of peace and security. In 2024, Tajikistan received a score of 2.035. Among its regional neighbors, Kazakhstan achieved the highest ranking in Central Asia at 59th, followed by Uzbekistan (60th), Kyrgyzstan (78th), and Turkmenistan (83rd). Global Rankings and Regional Comparisons According to the GPI, Ukraine (159th) and Russia (156th) remain among the least peaceful countries due to the ongoing war. Yemen once again ranked last at 163rd, reflecting its protracted civil war, humanitarian crisis, and political instability. The top five most peaceful countries are Iceland, Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Singapore, all known for political stability, low crime rates, and an absence of armed conflict. Global Trends and Tajikistan’s Decade of Progress The 2024 GPI notes a global decline in peacefulness by 0.56% compared to 2023. Nearly 60% of the countries assessed, 97 in total, saw a deterioration in their scores. Contributing factors include rising geopolitical tensions, advances in military technology, economic hardship, and internal instability. Despite these global trends, Tajikistan has made notable progress over the past decade. In 2015, the country ranked 108th. It fell further to 122nd in 2016 and stood at 114th in both 2017 and 2018. However, since 2019, the country has steadily climbed: 105th in 2019, 107th in 2020, 97th in 2021, 92nd in 2022, and 70th in 2023.

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Astana Gathers the World: Forum Elevates Kazakhstan’s Diplomatic Stature

The Astana International Forum 2025 (AIF2025), themed “Connecting Minds, Shaping the Future,” will take place in Kazakhstan’s capital on May 29-30. World leaders, business executives, investors, and experts will convene to address pressing global challenges and explore avenues for mutually beneficial agreements. Who is Expected in Astana? The AIF2025 aims to serve as a platform for open dialogue and to attract foreign capital. Participants will also seek to forge strategic partnerships and promote economic development initiatives. Approximately 600 international guests are expected, including prominent political figures, heads of international organizations, business leaders, investors, and members of the academic community. Confirmed attendees include Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda; Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania; Andrej Plenković, Prime Minister of Croatia, Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, President of the Republic of North Macedonia; and Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar. Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General and Chair of the Global Green Growth Institute and the Boao Forum for Asia, will also participate. Other distinguished guests include Alain Berset, Secretary General of the Council of Europe; Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Amy Pope, Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM); Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the OECD; and Daren Tang, Director General of the World Intellectual Property Organization. Also expected are Antonella Bassani, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia; Haoliang Xu, UNDP Deputy Secretary-General and Deputy Administrator; Jin Liqun, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); Jürgen Rigterink, First Vice President of the EBRD; Kubanychbek Omuraliev, Secretary General of the Organization of Turkic States; and Sebastian Kurz, former Federal Chancellor of Austria. This year, the forum will focus on three global themes: politics and international security, energy and climate change, and economics and finance. According to the Kazakh government, AIF2025 takes place amid intensifying global competition for investment and showcases Kazakhstan’s openness to international collaboration. The country continues to solidify its global presence through comprehensive reforms, legal modernization, and a strengthened investment climate. On May 28, two bilateral business forums, Kazakhstan-France and Kazakhstan-Italy will precede the main event. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will also attend a Central Asia-Italy summit. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, in recent years Italy has emerged as one of the European countries most keen to maintain close relations with the countries of Central Asia. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is scheduled to open the forum. Global Anticipation Builds In the run-up to the event, several participants have already shared their expectations, with Maha Al-Kuwari, General Manager of the Doha Forum, saying that it was a privilege to be involved. “Together with the Qatar Development Fund, the Doha Forum will host a session focused on innovative approaches to enhancing global sustainability. Given geopolitical fragmentation, post-pandemic recovery, and disrupted supply chains, this discussion is vital, especially for developing and least developed countries,” she stated. The session will highlight new investment models and successful partnership frameworks spanning from Astana to Doha. Interviews...

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Central Asian and Pakistani Leaders Showcase Digital Future at GSMA Summit in Tashkent

The second day of the GSMA M360 Eurasia conference, held on May 21 in Tashkent, delivered a resounding message of partnership, innovation, and forward-looking digital strategies. Leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, alongside delegates from other countries, shared insights on fostering resilient digital economies through collaboration and technology. Kazakhstan: Digital Leadership and AI Strategy Kazakhstan’s Minister of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry, Zhaslan Madiyev, highlighted his country’s digital advancements. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan has ascended into the global top ten for online service quality and now ranks 24th in e-government development. “More than 90% of transactions are cashless,” he noted, “and over 35 personal documents are exclusively digital. Digital documents now carry the same legal weight as paper ones.” Citizens can even travel domestically using only a digital ID on their phones. Madiyev spotlighted Astana Hub, Kazakhstan’s primary IT cluster, which hosts over 1,600 startups and global tech firms, with outposts in Silicon Valley, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, and the UK. “We recently signed an agreement with Uzbekistan’s IT Park,” he said, “and we will soon open a joint mobile lab with Tcell in Uzbekistan.” He emphasized that cross-border collaboration enables startups to access global markets. Artificial intelligence (AI) featured prominently in Madiyev’s address. He announced the formation of a national AI committee and the adoption of a five-year strategy that includes ethical guidelines, product labeling, and a public AI platform. A newly acquired supercomputer, boasting two exaflops of processing power, will soon support universities, startups, and companies. Kazakhstan also plans to train one million individuals over five years, spanning schoolchildren to government employees. Madiyev invited Uzbekistan to join a regional AI collaboration centered around the forthcoming International Center of AI in Astana, which will host labs, exhibits, hackathons, and workspaces for startups and major tech firms. Uzbekistan: Building a 5G Future In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Dmitriy Shukov, CEO of Perfectum, the first stand-alone 5G mobile network operator in Uzbekistan, discussed the company’s vision. Perfectum primarily serves the business sector with advanced network solutions. “We focus on B2B clients and will continue to develop cutting-edge services for a fast-growing economy,” Shukov stated. On expanding 5G access nationwide, Shukov pointed to device compatibility. “People need access to 5G stand-alone service. We hope GSMA can facilitate discussions with handset manufacturers to unlock all 5G features here,” he said, underscoring that broader access is essential for digital inclusivity. Perfectum’s pioneering role in the region sets a benchmark for others. Discussing Uzbekistan’s telecom infrastructure, Shukov expressed optimism. “Our population grows by 700,000 annually. Sixty percent are under 30, demanding high-speed, low-latency services. And the regulatory environment is now very favorable to investors,” he said. These dynamics, he concluded, set a strong foundation for the next three years. Tajikistan: Rethinking Telecom Models Tcell CEO Ozodkhon Davlatshoev, whose company serves over two million customers and is Tajikistan’s largest mobile operator, addressed the pressures facing the sector. “Our market share is about 14%, growing 7% annually, but with just 2% population...

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Opinion – The Quiet Competition: How the U.S. Is Losing Ground to China in Central Asia

Over the past decade, China has steadily expanded its presence in Central Asia, not through military force, but by building roads, trade corridors, and digital infrastructure. As the United States scaled back its regional footprint following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, Beijing moved quickly to fill the void. Today, China has positioned itself as the region's dominant external power, while the U.S. risks being left on the sidelines. At the heart of China’s strategy is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has provided over $1 trillion into infrastructure projects globally since its launch in 2013. This includes $704 billion in construction contracts and $470 billion in non-financial investments. In 2024 alone, BRI engagement reached $121.8 billion – $70.7 billion in construction and $51 billion in investments – and trade between China and the countries of Central Asia hit a record $95 billion, highlighting the depth of China's economic integration. This engagement has also created significant financial dependencies. Central Asian countries owe China roughly $15.7 billion, about 8% of the region's total external debt, and these loans are often opaque and carry terms that provide Beijing with outsized political leverage. Chinese firms are also laying fiber-optic networks and constructing electric vehicle corridors to link western China with its neighbors. In Tajikistan, for example, contractors are upgrading the Pamir Highway to support cross-border EV transport. Huawei and other Chinese tech giants are also expanding the region’s telecommunications infrastructure, raising serious concerns about surveillance, data sovereignty, and long-term digital dependency. China’s economic outreach is reinforced by high-level diplomacy. The China–Central Asia (C+C5) format has become the centerpiece of Beijing’s regional engagement. At the 2025 summit, leaders from across the region gathered to coordinate on connectivity, climate resilience, and trade facilitation. The regularity and substance of these summits stand in sharp contrast to the United States’ more sporadic diplomatic presence. The U.S. maintains the C5+1 platform and launched a promising Critical Minerals Dialogue in 2024. However, these initiatives have yet to match the scale or consistency of China's approach as U.S. infrastructure investment is limited, its commercial footprint is small, and diplomatic engagement is too infrequent to shift the region’s strategic trajectory. This matters. Central Asia is strategically located, resource-rich, and increasingly central to global supply chains and geopolitical competition. Kazakhstan alone supplies more than 40% of the world’s uranium. The region also serves as a testing ground for competing development models, and if the United States fails to become a more engaged and credible partner, China’s infrastructure-heavy, state-centric model may become the default. To remain competitive, Washington should recalibrate its approach in Central Asia. This includes pursuing bilateral deals that deliver real impact, such as deepening ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through targeted investment packages, trade agreements, and joint-sector initiatives. It also means securing access to critical minerals by expanding private-sector investment in mining, processing, and transport infrastructure aligned with U.S. supply chain needs. Offering digital infrastructure alternatives is equally essential; the United States must support secure, interoperable, and transparent technology networks that...

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Russia: Thousands of Central Asia-Born Russians Sent to Ukraine Front Line

A senior Russian official has said that thousands of migrants from Central Asia who became Russian citizens were sent to fight in Ukraine after they tried to dodge conscription. "Our military investigations directorate conducts regular raids,” Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, said on Tuesday in remarks that were reported by the Russian state-run TASS news agency. “So far, we've tracked down 80,000 such Russian citizens who didn't just avoid the front lines — they wouldn’t even show up at military enlistment offices. We’ve registered them for military service, and about 20,000 of these 'new' Russian citizens, who for some reason no longer want to live in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, or Kyrgyzstan, are now on the front lines," Bastrykin said at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum. Bastrykin’s comments contributed a piece to the often murky picture of the involvement of people from Central Asia in Russia’s war effort in Ukraine in the last three years. In addition to conscription measures, Russia has also sought to replenish its ranks by offering contracts and other incentives to foreigners willing to fight. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are among Central Asian countries that ban their nationals from fighting in foreign conflicts and there have been several high-profile prosecutions of citizens who fought for Russia and returned home. It is a sensitive political matter in Central Asia, a region that seeks to project neutrality in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Kazakhstan has said it is reviewing a report by a Ukrainian institution that said about 661 Kazakh citizens have fought for Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The I Want To Live center, which is run by the Ukrainian security services and assists with surrender requests from soldiers fighting for Russia, published a list of what it said were the Kazakh nationals. Of the 661, at least 78 have been killed, according to the center. Without providing details, it said it received the list from its own sources within the Russian military. Uzbekistan is conducting a similar investigation based on data from the Ukrainian group.

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CSTO to Begin Arms Supplies to the Tajik-Afghan Border in 2026

Beginning in 2026, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will start delivering weapons and military equipment to bolster the alliance's southern borders, particularly to reinforce the Tajik-Afghan frontier. This development was announced on May 19 by CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov during a meeting of the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly in Bishkek. Armed Response to Regional Threats Tasmagambetov highlighted that the initiative stems from the Targeted Inter-State Program (TIP), approved in Astana in November 2024. This program reflects the CSTO's collective resolve to address security vulnerabilities along its southern periphery. “The task now is to implement it in full,” he stated. These security issues were previously discussed during an April 2025 meeting in Dushanbe with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon. Despite regional stabilization efforts, Afghanistan continues to pose serious risks, including terrorism, arms trafficking, and the narcotics trade. Tasmagambetov emphasized, “The Taliban regime is proving to be a long-term political factor.” He noted that CSTO members, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, have intensified diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan to support regional stability. The CSTO Secretariat will maintain vigilance and enhance coordination to counter emerging threats. Signs of Regional Progress In contrast to the ongoing security challenges, Tasmagambetov acknowledged promising developments in Central Asia. He pointed to the March 13 state border agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as the March 31 tripoint agreement involving Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. These steps are seen as crucial in easing regional tensions. Tajik-Afghan Border a Strategic Focus Through 2029 The TIP for strengthening the Tajik-Afghan border is scheduled to be implemented in three stages and will run until 2029. Its goals include reinforcing southern Tajikistan’s military infrastructure and improving the region’s capacity to respond swiftly to cross-border threats. The program outlines measures for allied coordination, arms deliveries, and enhancements to logistics, communications, and border infrastructure.