Uzbekistan just hosted the Tashkent Water Week forum, and the speaker many wanted to hear from was the representative from Afghanistan. Central Asia and Afghanistan are being hit hard by climate change. This region has endured several droughts already this decade, and indications are that this year will bring drought again.

Hanging over the forum was Afghanistan’s plan to complete the Qosh-Tepa Canal in 2028, which will draw water from a river that Central Asian countries also use and further complicate the regional water situation.

Qosh Tepa Canal, artist’s rendition; image: TCA, Aleksandr Potolitsyn

Our Fair Share

The forum, which actually spanned only two days, March 25-26, brought together some 80 speakers and more than 1,200 delegates from 19 countries.

In the past five years, Central Asia has seen noticeably diminished precipitation, melting glaciers, and record high temperatures, making water conservation a priority. The last days of March saw temperatures soar into the 30s Celsius in southern Kazakhstan. In both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, there were record-high temperatures in February. Rainfall for the last three months of 2025 was also far below normal across Central Asia.

When the Taliban government announced in early 2022 that it would build the 285-kilometer-long, 100-meter-wide, 8.5-meter-deep Qosh Tepa to irrigate lands in northern Afghanistan, it added another water concern to Central Asia, particularly the governments in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Water and Energy, Mujeeb-ur-Rahman Omar, led the Afghan delegation at the Tashkent Water Week. At the forum, he repeated his government’s position that historically, Afghanistan has taken only very small volumes of water from the Amu-Darya River basin, while its northern neighbors have been using large amounts for irrigation for decades.

“We believe in the fair and sustainable development of the region,” Omar said, adding, “We intend to develop (water resources) on a legal basis, in accordance with the legal rights of the countries in the region.“

Omar is correct that under international law, Afghanistan has an equal right to water from the Amu-Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers. The river currently marks the border between Afghanistan to the south, and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and a small section of Turkmenistan to the north.

There is no separate regional water use agreement between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan. Since none of the Central Asian governments officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government, Russia is the only country that does at the moment, there is no possibility of a legal treaty on water use being signed.

So, shortly after the construction of the canal is finished in 2028, some 20% of the water in the Amu-Darya, starting from the point just west of the Tajik-Uzbek border, will be diverted into the Qosh Tepa canal.

It is already clear that this will mean the end of some downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan that are on the edge of the Kara-Kum Desert and which are already under strain from insufficient water supplies.

Turkmenistan did not send a delegation to the Tashkent Water Week forum.

Uzbekistan’s Minister of Water Resources, Shavkat Khamrayev, summed up the situation in March 2025, conceding Afghanistan’s right to its share of water, and there was no other choice.

“Should we take up arms and go to war?’ Khamrayev asked.

Abandoned boats on the former Aral seabed reflect the legacy of water diversion in Central Asia.; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland

The Taliban Wants Help

At the Tashkent forum, Omar said Afghanistan would always consider the rights and needs of its northern neighbors for water. He stressed cooperation with Central Asia, especially in sharing water-saving technologies that the Central Asian countries have been developing in recent years.

Omar specifically appealed to the Central Asian states, “in the spirit of regional cooperation,” to help with projects to solidify the banks of the Amu-Darya on the Afghan side of the river. Omar said soil erosion was washing away sections of the river’s bank, leading to the loss of water.

Uzbekistan’s government has offered several times to help with the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal. The Taliban are building the project on their own, and there have been concerns about safety and the quality of the workmanship.

Omar did not address this issue, but made it clear that the project will be finished. So far, more than 200 kilometers of the canal have been excavated.

Omar also spoke about regional efforts to combat climate change. In his opinion, “developed countries that have essentially caused climate change” should “help the countries that have become victims of climate change in conducting scientific research, monitoring, and assessing our needs.”

There was no mention in reports if that view was shared by others at the forum.

Uzbek fishermen on the Amu Darya; image: Project Amu Darya

Making the Best of It

On the sidelines of the forum, Omar met with Uzbek Water Resources chief Khamrayev to discuss water management.

The Afghan delegation’s presence at the forum was a good sign that the Taliban want to cooperate with Central Asia on the issue of water use. But with the memories of droughts in 2021, 2022, and 2023 still fresh in the minds of officials on both sides of the Afghan-Central Asian border, and with another drought likely this year, water use could quickly become a contentious issue once again before the Afghan canal is even completed.