Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output fell by about 21% on July 22 after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped receiving Kazakh crude and suspended loadings at its Black Sea terminal. Output dropped to 1.63 million barrels per day from a July average of 2.07 million, Reuters said, citing an industry source.
The sharpest reduction came at Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield. Production fell by 56%, from an average 925,000 barrels per day in July to about 406,000 on Wednesday, reflecting how quickly a halt at Novorossiysk can force cuts at a field more than 1,500 kilometres away.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed the reduction, stating that producers had cut output because CPC had restricted intake and their storage tanks were nearing capacity.
“The adjustment was a technical measure intended to keep production operations stable,” the ministry said.
It added that CPC’s production facilities remained operational and could resume shipments when conditions allowed. Consultations were continuing with the consortium, producers, shipowners, and state agencies. No timetable was given.
Tengiz Bears the Brunt
Chevron began production from the $48 billion Future Growth Project in January 2025. The expansion was designed to add 260,000 barrels of crude per day and raise total Tengiz output to about one million barrels of oil equivalent per day at full capacity.
Chevron owns 50% of Tengizchevroil, while ExxonMobil holds 25%, KazMunayGas 20%, and Lukoil 5%. The field provides a large share of Kazakhstan’s oil production and export income.
After the tanker ASIA was struck on July 19, Chevron told The Times of Central Asia that the crew was safe and the vessel was stable. “There has been no impact to TCO operations or exports,” the company said.
However, by July 22, the export halt had forced cuts at Tengiz. Chevron did not immediately comment on the new production figures cited by Reuters.
The cut compounds a difficult year for the sector. Kazakhstan produced 45.7 million tonnes of oil in the first half of 2026, down 8.4% from a year earlier. The Energy Ministry still expects 98 million tonnes for the full year, after lowering its previous target because of Tengiz outages and earlier CPC disruption.
Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ crude quota rose to 1.608 million barrels per day for July. The national output figure includes gas condensate and cannot be compared directly with the crude allocation. The latest reduction removes barrels Kazakhstan intended to export.
The timing adds to the revenue loss. Brent rose above $100 on July 23 after attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea added to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Tanker Attacks Halt CPC Loadings
The production cuts followed a series of attacks on tankers near CPC’s marine terminal. The Chevron-chartered Yasa Polaris was hit on July 7 while empty and waiting offshore. Its crew was safe, and no pollution or major hull damage was reported. Nordic Zenith was struck on July 17 while empty and approaching the terminal. ASIA and NISSOS IOS were hit on July 19 while loading Kazakhstan-produced crude.
Loading briefly resumed before a drone struck NELSA at the SPM-1 offshore mooring on July 20. A fire broke out on deck and in several compartments, which the crew and emergency teams extinguished. No deaths or oil spill were reported. Shipping data showed that NELSA was carrying Russian Urals crude.
Following this attack, CPC suspended loadings. On July 21, CPC had stopped accepting Kazakh crude after its storage tanks reached capacity. Ship-tracking data showed that at least two tankers due to load oil had changed direction.
Incidents continued on July 23. HERA was damaged and caught fire after a drone attack while approaching the terminal to load Lukoil crude. ALATAU, which was due to load KazMunayGas oil, turned away after encountering unmanned surface vessels. SEA AMBER and DELTA IOS also changed course toward Turkey. In total, six tankers have been struck near CPC during July.
Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry called the attacks an infringement of its economic interests and a threat to lawful trade. “Kazakhstan demands an immediate halt,” it said, while reserving the right to seek compensation under international law.
Ukraine has increased strikes on Russian energy infrastructure but had not commented on the latest attacks as of July 23.
Cuts to production have drawn a firm response in Washington, where the State Department delivered a formal démarche to Kyiv in February after an earlier attack on Novorossiysk affected American and Kazakh interests. The Trump administration issued a further warning on July 21 urging Ukraine to curb attacks on non-Russian vessels serving the CPC terminal.
Representative Bill Huizenga, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, told The Times of Central Asia that attacks affecting CPC posed risks to civilians and U.S. interests. “Further strikes will not be tolerated,” he said. Huizenga urged the administration to make clear to Kyiv that legitimate allied energy exports and infrastructure must be protected. “The generosity of the American people, nearly $200 billion in direct support to the Government of Ukraine, is not charity,” he stated.
Regarding the incidents that occurred on July 17 and 19, Ukraine’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, Victor Mayko, had previously told The Times of Central Asia that there was “no evidence whatsoever that the attacks in question were carried out by the Ukrainian side.” Despite describing the July 19 incidents and the following day’s strike on NELSA as “terrorist attacks,” CPC has not publicly named a perpetrator.
A Route Kazakhstan Cannot Quickly Replace
The 1,511-kilometre CPC pipeline runs from western Kazakhstan through Russia to the marine terminal near Novorossiysk. Carrying crude from Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak, the route handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and around 2% of global daily crude supply.
Russia holds 31% of CPC, while Kazakhstan holds 20.75%. Chevron owns 15%, and ExxonMobil’s Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company has 7.5%. The shutdown therefore affects U.S. shareholders as well as Kazakhstan’s state oil company.
Kazakhstan has expanded alternative routes, but their capacity remains small beside CPC. Shipments from Aktau across the Caspian and through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline reached 1.3 million tonnes in 2025 and are expected to rise to 1.6 million tonnes in 2026. China received about 1.1 million tonnes last year. Greater use of the Caspian route depends on tanker space and port handling. It also requires capacity in onward pipelines.
With no restart announced by early July 24, a prolonged closure would force deeper cuts at Tengiz and could spread to Kashagan and Karachaganak. Each additional day increases the loss in output and export revenue, while adding pressure to a state budget heavily dependent on oil income.
