Kazakhstan: Government approves Forecast of Socio-Economic Development for 2020-2024

NUR-SULTAN (TCA) — The Government of Kazakhstan on August 27 approved the Forecast for the Socio-Economic Development of the Country until 2024, the press service of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan reported.

The Minister of National Economy Ruslan Dalenov presented the document.

In his words, depending on changes in external parameters, three possible scenarios for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan were considered. The base scenario assumes an oil price of $55 per barrel. Real GDP growth is projected at 4.1% in 2020. In 2024, it will reach 4.7%. The average annual GDP growth rate over 5 years will be 4.4%.

“Investments will become a significant factor in maintaining economic growth,” Dalenov emphasized.

In the context of industry, the main growth will be in the non-oil sector. This is manufacturing, services and construction. The average growth of these industries will be at the level of 4.7%.

Oil production in Kazakhstan will increase from 90 million tons in 2020 to 100 million tons in 2024. The increase in production will be due to the expansion of the Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan fields and the commissioning of offshore fields.

Nominal GDP will amount to 75 trillion tenge in 2020, and in 2024 — 106 trillion tenge.

GDP per capita will be $10.5 thousand in 2020, with an increase to $14.3 thousand in 2024.

Exports will grow at an average rate of 2.9%, reaching $63 billion in 2024. The average annual import growth will be at the level of 2.5%, amounting to $37 billion in 2024.

The Chairman of the National Bank Erbolat Dossaev said that the main goal of the National Bank is to maintain inflation in the range of 4-6% in 2019-2021, with a subsequent decrease to 3-5% in 2022-2024.

Sergey Kwan