Kazakhstan government updates economic forecast for 2016

ASTANA (TCA) — Taking into account the situation in the world economy and international commodity markets, and the results of Kazakhstan’s economy since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of National Economy has updated its forecast of the country’s macroeconomic indicators for 2016, the official website of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan reported.

“The annual average price of oil was increased from 30 to 35 US dollars per barrel. The index for metals was lowered from 15 to 12.7 percent to level of 2015. The average US dollar exchange rate remained at the level of 360 tenge. Oil production [forecast] was increased from 74 to 75 million tons due to a higher average oil price and the expected launch of Kashagan [oilfield] in October this year,” National Economy Minister Kuandik Bishimbayev said at the Government meeting on September 13.

The minister added that, taking into account the updated scenarios and dynamics of economic sectors since the beginning of this year, GDP growth would remain at the previously approved level of 0.5 percent in 2016. GDP will be 6.9 thousand US dollars per capita.

“The increase in the volume of gross agricultural output in 2016 is expected to reach 3.6 percent. Industry will decrease by 1.7 percent in 2016 due to a reduction of mining production by 3.4 percent. A decline in trade by 3.5 percent is projected, while transport services will grow by 4 percent,” Bishimbayev said.

He also said that the forecast for Kazakhstan’s export was increased to 35.3 billion dollars and imports up to 26.7 billion dollars.

According to the forecast of the National Bank, inflation will remain within the previously approved corridor of 6-8 percent in 2016.

Sergey Kwan