On the eve of the 34th anniversary of our country’s independence, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund finalized the 2025 consultations under Article IV of the IMF Agreement. The Fund’s main conclusion is that Uzbekistan’s economic outlook remains positive amid continued progress in the transition to a market economy. According to the published document, headline indicators are strong, including sustained growth, a reduced consolidated budget deficit, a narrower current account deficit, and an adequate level of international reserves.
IMF staff note that the successful implementation of structural reforms supports a favorable baseline. Despite a high degree of uncertainty in global trade policy, the IMF projects real GDP growth will remain robust in the coming years. These trends reflect greater economic openness, ongoing industrialization, active investment policy, and measures designed to build the export potential of promising industries.
The reform package – and the decisions already put into effect – aligns with available domestic resources and reserves, supporting long-term, sustainable development across the country and its regions. The commitment to irreversible market transformation allows Uzbekistan to combine targeted state support with space for private entrepreneurial initiative on the path to building a “New Uzbekistan.”
In recent years, rising openness and growing investor confidence have driven a steady increase in capital formation. From 2017 to 2024, total foreign investment exceeded $113 billion, more than 80% of which comprised foreign direct investment and loans. Financing activity has been particularly strong in leading industries and the fuel and energy complex, accelerating industrialization in virtually every region.
Deepening investment links with China, Russia, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, the United States, the United Kingdom, and others is bringing advanced technologies and expertise, modern management practices, expanded localization, and stronger export capacity to priority sectors and regions. These resources are primarily directed to technological upgrades and modernization of existing facilities, as well as the creation of new production sites.
Over the past eight years, investment programs have launched more than 96,000 projects worth about $100 billion, creating 1.8 million jobs. In 2024 alone, the value of commissioned projects was nearly eight times higher than in 2017, while the number of jobs increased by 2.6 times. Active involvement by the Head of State has been pivotal. Since the start of this year, visits and high-level events have produced 366 investment agreements totaling $75 billion. Roadmaps have also been approved for 222 projects worth about $45 billion.
At the IV Tashkent International Investment Forum held in June, agreements were reached on investments exceeding $30 billion for 144 joint projects. In April 2025, on the sidelines of the 5th International Industrial Exhibition “INNOPROM. Central Asia” in Tashkent, 43 additional investment agreements were signed, with plans to attract a further $1 billion to the industrial sector.
Uzbekistan has also intensified outreach to the international community about project opportunities. This year, Investors’ Day events took place in 13 foreign countries, drawing representatives of 700 well-known companies. More than 200 investment projects worth $6 billion were presented to potential partners.
A central element of industrial policy is import substitution through high-quality, competitive local production. Under the Localization Program – covering around 10,000 projects – nearly 300 trillion som of output was produced from 2020 to 2024, yielding an estimated $25 billion in import substitution. The program has enabled the launch of new facilities for previously imported goods, reshaped the sectoral structure of industry, and reduced dependence on external supplies by diversifying the range of products and services.
The Number of Exporters Is Growing
Export orientation has become a pillar of Uzbekistan’s industrialization plans. Between 2017 and 2024, total exports exceeded $132 billion, with average annual export growth of 12–23% over this period. Thanks to systematic and targeted support for exporters, the geography of shipments expanded by 55 countries in 2024, and reached 186 destinations over the past eight years. Last year, the number of exporting enterprises increased by 3,143, bringing the total to 7,343.
Higher value-added goods are also gaining traction. In 2024 alone, the shift toward more processed exports added $1 billion to foreign sales. Entering new, promising markets requires substantial improvements in product quality and compliance with international standards. Under the GSP+ program, organizational and technical measures were implemented to obtain GlobalG.A.P., Organic, OEKO-TEX, BSCI, and CE certifications, and to transition more than 5,000 enterprises to ISO standards. These steps alone enabled additional exports of 617 product types worth $1.4 billion to the European Union last year.
Moving to more demanding standards and technologies makes it possible to deliver a different caliber of products for new markets. Growing shipments to developed countries confirm the strategy’s soundness. For example, as export geography expanded and producers responded to market conditions, average selling prices for fruit and vegetable products rose by 14% last year.
Industrialization has also changed the export basket. Until recently, Uzbekistan was widely associated with a cotton monoculture and raw-material dominance. According to IMF experts, the share of cotton fiber exports – once 0.2% of GDP – has trended toward zero since 2021 over the long term. Today, Uzbekistan exports an increasing array of higher-tech goods; by 2024, the export nomenclature had reached around 4,000 items. Compared with 2017, exports of primary goods fell by 22% last year, while exports of finished goods rose by 3.3 times, semi-finished goods by 4.4 times, and services by 2.9 times. Advanced cotton processing helped double garment and knitwear exports to $1 billion, making Uzbekistan the second-largest supplier of textile products to the Russian market.
Domestic brands are increasingly gaining recognition and trust among foreign consumers. Last year, about 300 Uzbek firms registered on major e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba, Wildberries, and Ozon, generating $680 million in sales. By the end of the first half of 2025, export volumes were up 33% year-on-year, approaching $17 billion. Since January, 1,557 companies have joined the ranks of exporters, accounting for $650 million in shipments.
The steady shift away from raw materials toward finished high-tech goods and services – including tourism, transport, construction, IT, and others – continues.
Investment Dialogue
Uzbekistan is building and actively operating an institutional environment to address strategic industrial-development priorities with a clear export focus and strong foreign-capital participation. Relevant ministries and state agencies are in place, alongside organizations that facilitate public–private interaction.
The Council of Foreign Investors under the President of Uzbekistan serves as a platform for direct dialogue between the government and investors, including international financial institutions. As an advisory and consultative body, the Council helps attract foreign direct investment into priority sectors and fosters a high-quality business dialogue that reflects international best practices.
The Council operates under the patronage of the President, who personally attends its meetings. A recent presidential decree provides for the implementation of agreements reached at the latest session, ensures systematic follow-through on participants’ initiatives and proposals, and enhances the Secretariat’s effectiveness.
In parallel, Uzbekistan continues to improve the legislative framework to support advanced industrial development, catalyze investment, and expand export potential across sectors and regions. Parliament remains closely engaged. In recent years, more than 500 state functions related to business regulation have been abolished, while about 70 have been transferred to public–private partnerships or outsourced to the private sector. Seventy-two types of licensed activities and 40 permits have been eliminated to improve the business climate and simplify procedures.
Positive Assessment
These transformations are reflected in assessments by international organizations. On the OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index, Uzbekistan ranks as the most open among its Central Asian peers. Performance on the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom – particularly “Trade Freedom” and “Investment Freedom” – has also improved this year.
Returning to the IMF’s conclusions under the 2025 Article IV consultation, the Fund’s outcome document highlights opportunities arising from accelerated structural reforms, rising incomes and capital inflows, and favorable commodity-price dynamics, all supportive of Uzbekistan’s sustainable development.
An analysis of industrialization, investment activity, and the expansion of exports underscores the tangible effectiveness of the “Uzbekistan–2030” strategy and accompanying measures to strengthen the country’s economic potential and international standing. Taken together, these results demonstrate the irreversibility of reforms aimed at building an independent New Uzbekistan.
