U.S. President Donald Trump seems resolute in his goal to end, or at least freeze, the war in Ukraine. To achieve such an ambitious objective, he is using a strategy of gradually normalizing relations with Russia, with his recent talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin playing an important part. But how will Trump’s Russia policy impact Central Asia – a region that has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit, but is now aiming to develop closer ties with the West?
Ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, Kazakhstan – the region’s largest country – has been offering its services as a mediator. Astana hoped to eventually host peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives. Such a possibility, at least at this point, does not seem very realistic, given that Putin and Trump are reportedly scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia, and Kyiv and Moscow still refuse to negotiate directly.
In the month since Trump returned to the White House, he has not focused on Central Asia. That, however, does not mean that Kazakhstan, as well as the other Central Asian countries, will not play a significant role in the post-war period.
Several Russian analysts claim that Washington’s ultimate goal is to “turn Russia against China” and use Moscow as an instrument against Beijing in a potential new Cold War between the United States and the People’s Republic. Given the strategic importance of Central Asia for both Russia and China, in the long term, the region could very well become a theater for various proxy conflicts.
For the time being, however, such a scenario does not seem very probable, as there is no strong anti-Chinese sentiment in Russia, and Central Asian nations are determined to continue pursuing their “multi-vector” foreign policies, rather than picking a side in global conflicts. Thus, once the Ukraine war comes to an end, regional actors will undoubtedly seek to strengthen their political, economic, and military positions, aiming to avoid being involved in another Great Game.
Although economic indicators in Central Asia are trending upwards in many respects, higher wages in areas such as construction and the broader services sector can still be earned outside the region. Although Russia has traditionally been the top destination for Central Asian migrants, that might soon change. Faced with the growing anti-migrant sentiment that came as a result of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in 2024, and the fact that Russia is actively recruiting labor migrants to fight in Ukraine, many of them are expected to look for new destinations, where they can find safer conditions and better opportunities. A post-war Ukraine could be one of them.
According to Vasily Voskoboynik, President of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, in 2023 Ukraine needed 4.5 million migrant workers, while the International Organization for Migration and the International Labor Organization believe that it will need 8.2 million laborers. In Voskoboynik’s view, it is necessary to consider countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, and India, as well as nations from North Africa, Central Asia, and other former Soviet republics.
This could be very important for countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, heavily dependent on remittances from Russia. For Kazakhstan, on the other hand, it will be crucial to preserve good political ties with both Washington and Moscow.
As the only Central Asian leader to speak with Donald Trump since his reelection, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered a message that both the Kremlin and the White House wanted to hear.
“The situation is unique: Russia is unbeatable militarily and Ukraine hopes with the help of Western allies to stand out in the war, not to lose it at least,” Tokayev stressed on January 3, emphasizing that Kazakhstan aims to build “pragmatic and mutually beneficial ties with all interested states.”
By saying that Russia is “unbeatable militarily,” the Kazakh leader garnered positive reactions in Russia. His claim that Ukraine hopes not to lose the war perfectly aligns with Washington’s approach of not allowing Russia to fulfill all of its military and political goals in Ukraine, while at the same time not providing Kyiv with enough help to restore its sovereignty over all territories that are currently under Russian control. By portraying Astana as an actor aiming to maintain good ties with “all interested states,” Tokayev has clearly shown that Kazakhstan does not intend to give up on its well-known “multi-vector” foreign policy.
As an experienced politician, he has also demonstrated an understanding of the ongoing political processes surrounding Ukraine, where Trump attempts to freeze the conflict and shift focus to other regions, namely the Middle East and China. That, however, will be easier said than done, given that Ukraine and Europe do not seem interested in such an outcome.
One thing is for sure: regardless of how the war in Ukraine unfolds, the United States will remain the only global superpower. Fully aware of that, Central Asian leaders will attempt to strengthen their relations with the Trump administration. Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Japarov’s open support for Donald Trump and the head of the co-called “DOGE” (Department of Government Efficiency) Elon Musk in the closure of USAID and media projects Voice of America and Radio Liberty, clearly shows welcomed posturing from the Trump administration that regional actors will seek to capitalize on.
