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Mixed Picture: Perceptions of China in Central Asia

China’s growing presence in Central Asia is seen as an economic opportunity by many in the region, but is also viewed with concern by others who fear so-called debt traps and land grabs. A new report on those perceptions of China stresses that there is no overarching Central Asian viewpoint and points to nuance in attitudes among the different countries. The study by the Central Asia Barometer, a polling group that has said it will suspend operations on December 1 because of insecurity and other obstacles to carrying out its work, is significant because a lot of news about China and Central Asia focuses on official pronouncements by governments and business groups. Assessing public opinion can be more of a challenge in countries with a top-down tradition of leadership. “Favorability towards China varies widely across countries, with younger generations in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan generally viewing China’s involvement more positively, particularly in areas like technology and investment,” the Central Asia Barometer said. “Older generations in these countries tend to be more skeptical, though. In Turkmenistan, the older population is more optimistic about China’s role, especially with regard to Chinese workers and investment.” The non-governmental group also noted “a decline or even negative favorability” in perceptions of China among people in Uzbekistan. The study, titled “Beyond the Silk Road” and released on Friday, is based on multiple surveys of opinions of China between 2017 and 2023 in four Central Asian states -Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. There was no data from Tajikistan. Perceptions of China depended on demographic factors such as ethnicity, age and gender, as well as the impact of specific Chinese infrastructure projects, and sources of information. Content on social media, for example, tended to improve attitudes toward Chinese business ventures. As of 2024, China has surpassed Russia as the top trading partner for most countries in Central Asia and is a major source of foreign investment and loans, a potential windfall that is tempered by concern about a lack of transparency in Chinese business practices. A Caspian Policy Institute analysis that was published in August explored negative perceptions of China. In July, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, architect of the Belt and Road economic initiative, traveled to Kazakhstan for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security group whose founding members include several Central Asian countries. There, Xi celebrated Chinese collaboration with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, the region’s other traditional power. Then he visited Tajikistan, a security partner that borders China and Afghanistan. The Central Asia Barometer said its data indicated a decline among some Central Asian populations in favorable views of Russia, coinciding with a change in feelings about China. “In 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, an upward shift in favorability toward China in Kazakhstan was observed while at the same time a pronounced drop in Russia’s favorability was noted,” it noted. Even so, China is not expected to supplant Russia’s longstanding influence in Central Asia. A commentary published by the Royal United Services Institute in early...

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How Central Asia Is Shifting From Russia Towards Turkey

For Turkey, a NATO member and EU hopeful, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is an instrument that helps Ankara increase its presence in the strategically important region of Central Asia. For Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, the Turkish-dominated group seems to be a tool that allows them to achieve their economic goals, while also continuing to distance themselves from Russia. Although Moscow still has a relatively strong foothold in Central Asia, it does not seem able to prevent the growing role of the Organization of Turkic States in the post-Soviet space. This entity – whose members are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan, Hungary, and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus hold observer status – has the potential to eventually serve as a counterbalance not only to Russian, but also Chinese influence in the region. Since its foundation in 2009, the OTS has held ten summits of its leaders. Over this period, the intergovernmental organization’s working bodies have also convened dozens of times. On November 5-6 in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, the OTS heads of states will meet for the eleventh time to discuss the future of the Turkic world. Although the agenda has yet to be announced, it is believed that the OTS leaders will seek to strengthen economic cooperation between its members. Currently, their major trade partners are nations outside the bloc. For instance, Turkey’s largest trading partner is Germany, Azerbaijan’s is Italy, while China has recently become Kazakhstan’s biggest trade partner with bilateral trade hitting $31.5 billion. For neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, China and Russia remain the most important economic partners. One of the group’s major problems is the fact that its members, excluding Turkey, are landlocked countries heavily-dependent on Russia and China geographically. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, as major energy exporters, rely on oil and gas pipelines traversing Russian territory to reach their customers in Europe. It is, therefore, no surprise that the Organization of Turkic States governments’ agreed in September to create a simplified customs corridor, aiming at reducing the number of documents required for customs operations and customs procedures between OTS member states. In other words, they plan to increase trade among themselves. According to Omer Kocaman, OTS Deputy Secretary-General, the Turkic nations are also looking to “continue cooperation to stimulate positive changes in their financial systems.” That is why the organization has recently launched the Turkic Investment Fund – the first joint financial institution for economic integration of the Turkic countries, with an initial capital of $500 million. Kyrgyzstan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry announced on October 17 that, starting in January 2025, the Turkic Investment Fund will begin financing major joint projects in OTS nations. However, in July, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the current structure of the Organization of Turkic States does not meet its established goals, and that its budget is insufficient for their implementation. In order to change that, on October 19, ministers of economy and trade of the OTS nations met in Bishkek to...

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Turkmenistan’s Unexplained Shortage of Gasoline

For months now, areas in eastern Turkmenistan have been facing a severe gasoline shortage. The lack of fuel at the pumps is having a knock-on effect that is raising food prices and shutting down public transportation. Turkmen officials have not acknowledged there is any problem, so the people of the affected regions have no idea why this happening or for how long this situation will continue. Gasoline shortages are not new to Turkmenistan. They have been occurring sporadically in recent years, usually during in late summer when harvesting of crops starts. This latest deficit is unprecedented for Turkmenistan in its duration and severity. Long lines and purchase limits By late June, there reports from Lebap and Mary provinces about lines of cars of waiting at petrol stations. Often there was not enough gasoline for everyone. By mid-July, filling stations in at least five districts and several of the big cities in Lebap Province were often completely out of higher-grade gasoline – A92 and A95. Before the end of July, Lebap authorities imposed a 10-liter limit per customer, per day on gasoline purchases. At the start of July there were areas in the northeastern Dashoguz Province that were totally without gasoline, even the cheapest and most environmentally harmful A-80 grade (which is banned in many countries, including Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) was unavailable. In Mary Province, A-92 and A-95 gasoline ran out in July and by early August authorities had limited purchases of A-80 to 20 liters per customer, and even that was unavailable in many areas of the province. In October, Radio Free Europe’s Turkmen service, known locally as Azatlyk, posted a video of a line of vehicles some three kilometers long outside one of the few filling stations operating along the Turkmenabad-Mary highway. Azatlyk’s sources in the region said there were similar lines at filling stations throughout the province and in the provincial capital Turkmenabad. Some people are reportedly arriving at filling stations at 4am to get a place in line as close to the pumps as possible when the stations open. In Mary Province, some car owners said they were phoning family members to bring them food and water while they waited in line. Prices going up at the pumps and other areas Turkmenistan has some of the least expensive gasoline in the world with an average of $0.428 per liter, roughly a third of the world average of $1.30 per liter. The official rate of Turkmenistan’s national currency, the manat, is 3.5 to $1. The state regulated cost of one liter of gasoline is 1.15 manat for A-80, 1.35 for A-92, 1.5 for A-95, and 1 manat for diesel. There have been incidents where filling station employees have been illegally selling gasoline at 5-6 manat per liter to those who can afford it. The shortage is having an effect on public transportation. Most buses are assigned to bringing people to and from the cotton fields once harvest starts toward the end of August or early September...

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Central Asia: Working Together on Border Landscapes

Talk of closer cooperation among Central Asian countries has ebbed and flowed as far back as the period after independence from Soviet rule in the early 1990s. The goal of a more unified region is a work in progress, though one promising area of collaboration is a plan to restore and protect damaged ecosystems in border regions. The first regional meeting on the topic, held this month in Tashkent, Uzbekistan’s capital, brought together government officials from the host nation as well as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The portfolios of the delegates were nature preservation, protected areas, emergencies, agriculture, and forestry. They talked about coordinating on wildfire alert systems in cross-border areas, erosion control, tree-planting and nature-oriented tourism in protected areas and other sites shared by Central Asia countries, according to the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia, a non-profit group based in Almaty, Kazakhstan that promotes regional dialogue on the environment. The group, which organized the Tashkent meeting, was created in 2001 by the five Central Asian states as well as the European Union and the United Nations Development Programme. The initiative is supported by a $256 million World Bank program to restore degraded landscapes in the region. The World Bank has noted big progress toward poverty alleviation and economic growth by Central Asian countries in the last decades. However, it has cautioned that oil and gas extraction in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan have taken a heavy environmental toll, while soil erosion and water scarcity have accompanied land development in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Arid conditions exacerbated by climate change and inefficient management threaten transboundary water resources, a problem that is becoming increasingly severe. “A key example of tragic impacts on livelihoods and health of communities in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and across the region are massive sand and salt storms originating from the land areas once covered by the Aral Sea,” the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia said. It cited an international disaster database as saying more than 10 million people in Central Asia have “suffered from land degradation-related disasters” since 1990, inflicting damages estimated at around $2.5 billion. Central Asian countries also seek to collaborate on early warning systems and other emergency precautions as they face a variety of natural hazards, including floods, landslides and droughts. Supported by United Nations agencies, the heads of the national emergency departments of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan convened in August at a lakeside resort town in northern Kyrgyzstan. There, they shared information and experiences.

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Central Asia’s Increasing Profile in Global Climate Policy

Between 11 and 22 November, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the run-up to this global event, Central Asian countries have been continuing their integration into the cooperative implementation of the global energy and environmental agenda. Such measures include, but are not limited to, commitments to reducing methane emissions, contributions to green supply chains, and — for Kazakhstan in particular — its nuclear policy based on multi-vector diplomacy. One may anticipate their especially enhanced presence in view of the fact that several them have strategic-partner relations with Azerbaijan, which is cooperating with them also in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian International Trade Corridor (TITR or "Middle Corridor"). The Central Asian states are using their implementation of global energy and environmental priorities as an instrument to integrate further into the international system. Following their participation at COP28 (30 November – 23 December 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates), all five of them signed the Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. They have also stepped up their contributions to green supply chains, signalling their ambitions to become more important players in global geoeconomics. At the same time, these initiatives also seek to promote domestic economic diversification. Kazakhstan, in particular, continues to play a central role with its multi-vector approach, notably in the nuclear energy sector, positioning itself at the intersection of sustainability and global energy security. Kazakhstan holds 12% of global uranium reserves. It became the world’s leading producer in 2009 and in 2022 accounted for 43% of global production. In Central Asia, Uzbekistan has a Rosatom-sponsored NPP project under way, as does Kyrgyzstan. Along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in particular actively engaged in discussions on climate policy at COP28, acknowledging the need to balance their resource-rich economies with global sustainability goals. One of the key outcomes was the region's collective involvement in the Global Methane Pledge. Global environmental policy bodies have assessed that methane emissions are a significant concern for global climate policy. The effect of this assessment will be to load still greater financial burdens on oil and gas companies by making development of hydrocarbon deposits, and the transmission of hydrocarbon resources to market, more expensive. Kazakhstan’s commitment to cutting methane emissions by 30% by 2030 exemplifies this shift, signalling a readiness to reform domestic industries in line with global climate targets. Turkmenistan has the highest methane emissions intensity in the region, but challenges remain in terms of monitoring and implementation. Uzbekistan’s leadership was also highlighted at COP28. The country’s ambitious plans to scale up solar and wind energy by 2030 align with broader regional goals of reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. This is Tashkent's (and the region's) way of enhancing their profile as "good global citizens" as policy decisions by political bodies at the international level increasingly emphasize decarbonization. Uzbekistan has made strides in "green supply chains" by focusing on the renewable energy sector...

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Anniversary of the Ashgabat Earthquake Tragedy

In every city's history, there are events that forever change its image and the fate of its inhabitants. The night of October 5-6, 1948, marked a turning point for Ashgabat, with a tragic event which still resonates in the hearts of those who lived through it. On that warm October evening, no one in Ashgabat could ever have predicted that the next few hours would forever change the fates of tens of thousands of people. Life in the city continued as usual, music played in the parks, lovers strolled along the streets, and students prepared for classes. The starry sky promised a peaceful night... Founded in 1881, when seismology was still young, Ashgabat grew and developed, oblivious to any impending danger. Traditional adobe construction —a mixture of clay and straw—seemed ideal for the dry climate. Year on year, residents renewed their clay roofs, adding new layers without considering that the increasing weight could be a death trap. “Only the stone building of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Turkmenistan and a few other important buildings were made of quality bricks,” recalled one eyewitness. “It was these buildings, though damaged, that survived, while virtually the rest of the city was reduced to rubble.” [caption id="attachment_24231" align="aligncenter" width="300"] @mchs.gov.ru[/caption] “In the middle of the night - we heard- a menacing rumble, then rumbling and cracking as the ground shook and shimmered...” said one of the survivors, recalling the beginning of the tragedy. At 1.14 am on October 6, 1948, something happened that many Ashgabat residents believed was the start of a new war. Within but a few seconds, the city was a ruin. Academician Dmitry Nalivkin, who was at the epicenter of events, describes the harrowing event: “There was something incredible, impossible outside the window. Instead of a dark transparent starry night, there was an impenetrable milky-white wall in front of me, and behind it - horrible moans, screams, cries for help.” [caption id="attachment_24232" align="aligncenter" width="300"] @mchs.gov.ru[/caption] According to Nalivakin, the city was completely paralyzed. Telephone communications were interrupted, the train station turned into a pile of rubble, and the airfield was destroyed. Overnight, the capital of the republic was cut off from the outside world. In a matter of seconds, 98% of the city was rubble. Lieutenant Colonel of Medical Service Tikhon Boldyrev describes the first minutes after the catastrophe: “A deafening noise like a deep sigh swept through the city, and immediately there was dead silence. The air was filled with thick, suffocating dust. There was no sound, no cries for help, no animal sounds; it was as if every living thing had perished beneath the ruins.” In the darkness, in a dense veil of dust, survivors raked through the rubble with their bare hands, trying to save their loved ones. Alevtina Dubrovskaya, a resident of Ashgabat, recalls, “I found myself covered from head to toe with a mat hanging over my bed, but there was some space with air under it, which saved me from suffocation...” [caption...