Uzbekistan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Macroeconomic Review

EDB Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in 2026 for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

On December 18, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026-2028, reviewing recent economic developments and offering projections for its seven member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the report, aggregate GDP growth across the EDB region is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2026. Kyrgyzstan (9.3%), Tajikistan (8.1%), Uzbekistan (6.8%), and Kazakhstan (5.5%) are expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economies. After two years of rapid expansion, the region’s GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to a slowdown in Russia’s economy. Although lower oil prices are expected to reduce export revenues for energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Russia, the impact on overall growth will be limited. Meanwhile, net oil importers, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, will benefit from improved terms of trade and reduced inflationary pressure. High global gold prices will support foreign exchange earnings for key regional exporters, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report also notes a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share in central bank reserves across the region, though its role in international settlements remains stable. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by the implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the state program “Order for Investment,” which are expected to cushion the effects of lower oil prices. Growth in non-commodity exports will also play a stabilizing role. Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.7% by the end of 2026, after peaking early in the year due to a value-added tax (VAT) increase. The average tenge exchange rate is expected to be KZT 535 per U.S. dollar, underpinned by a high base interest rate and rising export revenues. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region in GDP growth at 9.3% in 2026, driven by higher investment in transport, energy, water infrastructure, and housing construction. Inflation is expected to ease to 8.3%, although further declines will be constrained by higher tariffs and excise taxes. The average exchange rate is projected at KGS 89.2 per U.S. dollar, supported by robust remittance inflows and high global gold prices, gold being the country’s main export commodity. Tajikistan Tajikistan is projected to maintain high GDP growth of 8.1% in 2026, fueled by capacity expansion in the energy and manufacturing sectors, along with rising prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is expected to reach 4.5% by year-end. The somoni is expected to remain stable, with an average exchange rate of TJS 9.8 per U.S. dollar, supported by growth in exports and remittances. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.8% in 2026, sustained by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 6.7%, helped by tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. The average soum exchange rate is expected to be UZS 12,800 per U.S. dollar, supported by high remittances and increased metal exports.

Advocacy

Uzbekneftegaz Signs $5 Million Consulting Deal With U.S. Firm Ballard Partners

Uzbekneftegaz has signed a $5 million lobbying and strategic consulting contract with the U.S.-based firm Ballard Partners, according to documents published by the Uzbek Telegram channel Revizor on December 12. The agreement outlines services for “strategic consulting and advocacy before the U.S. government.” The reported monthly fee is $83,334, implying a contract duration of approximately five years. Ballard Partners is often described by U.S. media outlets as having close ties to President Donald Trump. Reuters recently reported that several major companies, including cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken and Blockchain.com, retained Ballard Partners after the November elections for lobbying on digital asset regulation. The firm is led by Brian Ballard, a longtime Trump fundraiser, and has seen a notable uptick in clients in recent months. Politico reported earlier this year that Ballard Partners’ revenue has sharply increased, with many organizations under pressure from the current administration turning to the firm for representation. According to the report, Ballard signed around 40 new clients following the elections, exceeding its client intake from the previous ten months. The Uzbekneftegaz deal follows recent comments by Uzbekistan’s Minister of Energy, Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov, confirming that the government has been in discussions with the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) regarding sanctions on Russian energy giant Lukoil. However, there is no publicly available evidence linking the Uzbekneftegaz agreement with Ballard Partners to the Lukoil sanctions issue. At this stage, the specific scope of Ballard Partners’ work on behalf of Uzbekneftegaz remains undisclosed. The available documentation does not specify the precise interests the firm will advocate for in Washington, leaving open questions about the contract’s strategic goals and expected outcomes.

China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway

Financing Agreement for China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project Signed in Bishkek

On December 16, a loan agreement was signed in Bishkek to finance the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, an ambitious regional transport project intended to bolster connectivity across Central and South Asia. According to the Kyrgyz government, the agreement was concluded between China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Company LLC, a joint venture formed by the three participating countries and a syndicate of Chinese banks, including the China Development Bank and Eximbank. The CKU railway has been discussed for more than two decades, but repeatedly stalled over financing, route selection, and technical concerns. Momentum increased after 2022 as China sought alternative westbound transport corridors and Central Asian states looked to diversify trade routes and reduce reliance on existing transit pathways. The total cost of the railway project is estimated at $4.7 billion. Half of that amount, approximately $2.3 billion, will be provided as a 35-year loan from China to the joint project company, which will be responsible for repayment. The remaining $2.3 billion will be contributed to the company’s authorized capital: China will cover 51%, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will each provide 24.5%. The CKU railway is a strategically significant infrastructure initiative spanning 523 kilometers. Construction officially began on December 27, 2024, in Kyrgyzstan’s Jalal-Abad region. Once completed, the railway will link Kashgar in China with Torugart, Makmal, and Jalal-Abad in Kyrgyzstan, and continue on to Andijan in Uzbekistan. A cargo transshipment station and logistics hub are planned in Makmal. The railway is expected to handle up to 15 million tons of cargo annually. Despite its strategic appeal, the project has raised concerns about debt exposure, particularly for Kyrgyzstan, which already relies heavily on Chinese financing. Officials say the joint-venture structure and long loan maturity will limit fiscal risks, though critics argue projected cargo volumes will need to be met for the railway to be financially sustainable. Currently, neither Kyrgyzstan nor Uzbekistan has a direct rail link with China; the only such connection in Central Asia runs through Kazakhstan. For Uzbekistan, the railway is expected to shorten transit times to Chinese markets and expand export capacity for industrial and agricultural goods. Officials in Tashkent have argued that the CKU route could reduce delivery times by several days compared with existing rail corridors. The CKU railway is among the most technically complex projects in the region. It includes the construction of 50 bridges and 29 tunnels, totaling 120 kilometers in length, meaning roughly 40% of the route will consist of bridges and tunnels. The Kyrgyz section alone will cover 304 kilometers. On December 5, Chairman of the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev visited the construction site of one of the tunnels in the Jalal-Abad region to inspect progress. According to government sources, work has begun on 18 of the 29 planned tunnels and 17 of the 50 bridges. The project currently involves 5,695 pieces of machinery and over 5,000 workers. For Kyrgyzstan, the CKU railway represents the largest infrastructure project in the country’s history. Authorities view the project as a chance to transform...

Natural Resources

Mirziyoyev: Uzbekistan’s Natural Resources Valued at Up to $79,000 Per Person

Uzbekistan’s vast underground wealth has drawn renewed attention following the release of an international ranking of countries by natural resource value per capita, as reported by Uzbek publication Zamin. According to the ranking, Saudi Arabia tops the list, with natural resources valued at approximately $1 million per person, driven largely by its extensive oil reserves. Canada and Australia follow, each exceeding $700,000 per capita, supported by a combination of oil, forests, minerals, iron ore, coal, and natural gas. Russia ranks fourth, with more than $520,000 in resources per person. Although accurately assessing Uzbekistan’s total natural resource value remains difficult due to fluctuating global commodity prices and ongoing geological exploration, the country's long-term potential is considered substantial. In July 2018, Azam Qadirhodjayev, then Deputy Chairman of Uzbekistan’s State Committee for Geology and Mineral Resources, estimated the total potential value of the country’s mineral resources at approximately $5.7 trillion. Of this, over $1 trillion stemmed from explored and currently developed deposits. At the time, only about 20% of Uzbekistan’s territory had been fully studied, leaving considerable room for new discoveries. Additional details were provided in December 2023, when Ilyos Jumayev, a representative of the Ministry of Mining Industry and Geology, announced at a press conference that Uzbekistan officially possesses 101 gold deposits and three silver deposits. According to the ministry, the country holds nearly all mineral types found globally, including gold, silver, copper, uranium, oil, natural gas, lithium, molybdenum, tungsten, manganese, nickel, cobalt, tantalum, and niobium. Major gold reserves serve as the raw material base for the Navoi and Almalyk mining and metallurgical complexes, while copper deposits are primarily located in the Tashkent region. The value of Uzbekistan’s natural resources was also a key topic at the Tashkent International Investment Forum in June 2025. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev stated that the country’s underground wealth is valued at approximately $3 trillion. He emphasized that the global demand for technological minerals is rising amid the fourth industrial revolution and identified strategic reserves of lithium, tungsten, magnesium, graphite, titanium, and vanadium as vital for developing high value-added industries. Based on the president’s $3 trillion estimate and Uzbekistan’s current population of roughly 38.24 million, the per capita value of natural resources stands at approximately $78,000 to $79,000. While lower than the per capita resource wealth in countries like Saudi Arabia or Canada, officials argue that incomplete geological surveying leaves room for this figure to grow. Uzbekistan’s resource base includes not only precious and rare earth metals but also energy resources such as oil and natural gas, underscoring the country’s strategic position in the global minerals landscape.

Digital Development

The Digital Future of Central Asia: Who Is Shaping It, and How?

Digital security is now a key component of most processes in every country. A large share of organizations is moving, or has already moved, their processes online, which requires increased attention and control. Many Central Asian countries are already rolling out AI technologies at the state level. Financial institutions, social systems, crypto services, rental services, and other high-risk areas can no longer develop effectively without biometric identification and AI. Central Asia is gradually developing its own biometric landscape, and if we look at it not as a set of disparate projects but as an emerging infrastructure, it becomes clear that the countries are moving at very different speeds. Kazakhstan: Leader in Biometrics and Digital Identity in the Region Today, Kazakhstan is the undisputed leader in Central Asia in the field of biometric technologies. In this region biometrics has long gone beyond isolated pilots and has become part of the digital infrastructure on which a significant part of the economy operates. Unlike neighboring countries, where biometrics is most often limited to video surveillance or exclusively state initiatives, Kazakhstan has developed a mature market of independent developers and technology companies creating competitive products both for private organizations and for government platforms. Thanks to active digitalization, biometrics in the country has become not an add-on, but the primary mechanism for identity verification. The state additionally stimulates this process: it expands the use of biometric identification in ministerial processes, strengthens the requirements for remote verification, and transfers critical services, such as the issuance of an Electronic Digital Signature (EDS), to biometric authentication. In this way, an environment is being built in which online processes gain full legal validity and the population receives convenient access to services without the need to visit physical offices. Kazakhstan’s key distinction is that it has a full-fledged biometrics market, not just government-driven initiatives. The private sector actively invests in biometric solutions, integrates them into its processes, and competes on the quality of the user experience. Banks strive to reduce entry barriers for clients, MFIs (software development kits) increase protection against fraud, crypto exchanges strengthen their compliance structure, and marketplaces implement biometric identification to secure transactions. This has created an effect unique for the region: biometrics has ceased to be a one-off project and has turned into an everyday part of business. Against this background, independent local companies are developing that are capable of creating advanced technological solutions within the country. Among them, Biometric.Vision stands out in particular, an international company originating from Kazakhstan, one of the key players in the Kazakhstani market that has formed its own technological stack and operates across several industries. The company has become a technological partner for banks, financial organizations, government services, and regulated industries, providing software modules for remote identification, biometric verification, liveness checks, and fraud prevention. Local products make it possible to respond quickly to new regulatory requirements, adapt to them, and address the real needs of local businesses. For Kazakhstan, the presence of local players in the biometrics market is...

Education Reform

World Bank Approves $250 Million Loan to Expand Student Financing in Uzbekistan

The World Bank has approved a $250 million loan to support Uzbekistan’s ambitious reform of its student financing system, the institution announced on December 11. The funding will back the Edulmkon Program, a three-year initiative aimed at expanding equitable access to higher and vocational education across the country. Scheduled for implementation between 2026 and 2028, the program is expected to benefit approximately 600,000 young people. Roughly 80% of the loan will be allocated to tuition loans for students from low-income families and for women, groups that continue to face significant barriers to accessing higher education. Uzbekistan, home to around 10 million people aged 14 to 30, has made educational reform a national priority in recent years. This push has led to a surge in the number of universities and vocational institutions, as well as a dramatic rise in enrollment. Between 2017 and 2024, youth participation in higher education increased from 8% to 48%. However, the rapid expansion has exposed weaknesses in the country’s student loan system, which is based on state subsidized loans issued through commercial banks. The World Bank has noted that the current model is not well aligned with labor market needs, as loans are not directed toward high demand fields such as science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), as well as information and communication technology (ICT). This misalignment has contributed to graduate underemployment, while gender disparities persist. Although women represent more than half of all university students and are the primary recipients of tuition loans, only one-third of female students are enrolled in STEM disciplines. The Edulmkon Program, to be led by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, will address these challenges through a series of reforms. These include modernizing tuition loan management, improving inter-agency coordination, and launching a centralized digital platform to streamline loan processing and improve transparency. The program will also revise eligibility and subsidy criteria to better serve vulnerable students. A cornerstone of the reform is the introduction of an income-contingent loan system, where repayments are based on a graduate’s income. This approach is designed to protect low-income borrowers and those facing temporary unemployment after graduation. By the end of 2028, students are expected to access loans through 12 participating commercial banks operating in coordination with the Ministry. The World Bank also noted that the program aims to attract approximately $30 million in private capital, reducing fiscal pressure on the state while expanding access to education financing.