Tajikistan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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The Ferghana Valley: Navigating Complex Challenges in Central Asia’s Most Volatile Region

The Ferghana Valley is one of Central Asia’s most fertile and densely populated areas, but it is also among the most volatile. Spanning Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, this landlocked region has long been a hotbed of ethnic tension, water disputes, and political instability. These challenges are deeply rooted in the geography, history, and sociopolitical landscape, making the valley a key focal point for understanding broader regional dynamics in Central Asia. Geographical Importance and Ethnic Diversity Nestled between the towering Tien Shan and Pamir Mountain ranges, the Ferghana Valley covers over 22,000 square kilometers. It is fertile land nourished by the Syr Darya River, making it a critical area for cultivating cotton, fruits, and vegetables. These natural resources have historically drawn diverse populations, creating a vibrant ethnic mosaic. The valley is home to Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, and Tajiks, as well as smaller ethnic groups. While ethnic Uzbeks form the majority, significant Kyrgyz and Tajik minorities inhabit border regions. The ethnic diversity of the Ferghana Valley is both a strength and a source of tension. Soviet-era border policies exacerbated these divisions by creating artificial boundaries that crisscrossed the valley, leaving behind ethnic enclaves — pockets of one nationality surrounded by the territory of another. These enclaves have complicated governance and territorial integrity, making border management a persistent challenge. The Soviet Legacy and Border Disputes During Soviet rule, the Central Asian republics were organized under Stalin’s divide-and-rule strategy, which deliberately created complex borders to weaken local identities and prevent regional unity. The Ferghana Valley, divided among three Soviet republics, is a prime example of this approach. After the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, the administrative boundaries became international borders overnight between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The lack of clearly defined borders has sparked numerous conflicts over territory, water, and land. A notable clash between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2021 resulted in over 40 deaths and the destruction of homes and infrastructure. Many disputes revolve around access to scarce resources like water and arable land. These issues have escalated into violent confrontations, leading to casualties and the displacement of local populations. Water: A Scarce and Contested Resource Water is the lifeblood of the Ferghana Valley, but disputes over its allocation are a major source of tension. The valley depends heavily on irrigation for its agricultural productivity, and the Syr Darya River, along with its tributaries, plays a crucial role in supplying water to the region. However, the division of the valley among the three countries complicates water management. Uzbekistan, the most populous of the three, relies on the valley’s water resources for its cotton industry, a cornerstone of its economy. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which control the headwaters of the Syr Darya, often use their upstream position to leverage water access. This dynamic has led to frequent disagreements over water usage. For instance, Kyrgyzstan has at times threatened to withhold water unless it receives compensation, either through payments or electricity. Ethnic Tensions and Political Instability Ethnic tensions further complicate the Ferghana Valley’s already volatile...

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The Illusion of Influence: The CSTO’s Journey From Symbolic Maneuvers To Real Challenges

Accompanied by a picture of military hardware - though in reverse gear as if symbolically - today, the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) website announced that “From 26 to 30 September, formations participating in the command-staff exercise 'Unbreakable Brotherhood-2024' with the CSTO Peacekeeping Forces are regrouping in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Contingents of CSTO troops are being sent from the Republic of Belarus, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Tajikistan to the exercise area in accordance with the plan.” In reality, the history of the CSTO is one of refusals, inaction, and sometimes unexpected successes. On August 31, Armenia announced it had frozen its participation in the CSTO. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he would not name the day when Armenia would leave the CSTO and called the decision to freeze the republic's participation in all structures of the organization correct “at this stage.” In many ways, this half-hearted decision reflects a certain amorphousness that originally characterized the CSTO. History The history of the structure's emergence reflects this lack of crystalline form. The Collective Security Treaty (CST) was signed in Tashkent between Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on May 15, 1992. Azerbaijan, Belarus and Georgia later joined in 1993. The treaty came into effect in 1994 and was set to last five years. During the 1990s and the disintegration of Soviet-era institutions, organizations such as the CSTO or the previously created Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), whose founding protocol was signed in Almaty, were created to facilitate a smooth “divorce” between the newly independent states. The CSTO was also seen as a force capable of curbing the regional conflicts which were boiling over, such as the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan. Tashkent's bet on Russian weapons in case of conflicts with the Taliban did not work out, however. From the turn of the 1990s into the 2000s, two serious fissures across the borders of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan took place; the republics fought back with their own military and weapons, in addition to Kazakhstan coming to the rescue. The Collective Security Treaty expired in 1999, with Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia withdrawing, whilst Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan soldiered on under a new pact. The remaining states later transformed the CST into the Collective Security Treaty Organization in 2002. Uzbekistan joined as a full member of the CSTO in 2006 but then flip-flopped and suspended its membership in 2012. A powerless organization While the CSTO was still developing, with President Vladimir Putin coming to power in Russia, the Kremlin's foreign policy changed substantively from that of the Yeltsin era, when Moscow remained indifferent to Nursultan Nazarbayev's integration initiatives. The new direction of Russian foreign policy was expressed in the concepts of “Russia rising from its knees” and the "gathering of lands.” Over time, this evolved into joint war games and military operations with the West in the Middle East and Africa, and for a period the Kremlin seemed to lose interest in Central Asia....

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Pathway to Prosperity: Uzbekistan’s Ambitious Plan to Halve Poverty by 2030

A presidential decree, "On taking measures to reduce poverty and increase the population's well-being to a new level," has been adopted in Uzbekistan. Lifting half a million people out of poverty in the remainder of 2024 and a further million in 2025 was defined as the primary task of the state's socioeconomic policy and state bodies and organizations at all levels. The “From Poverty to Prosperity” program will be implemented based on the positive results of poverty reduction from past national experiences and international practices. The program will be implemented from November 1, 2024, based on the doctrine of “Seven Opportunities and Responsibilities for Poor Families.” Within the framework of this program, systematic work is carried out to achieve stable employment and higher incomes, education and vocational training, access to the use guaranteed state medical services, social services, and an overall improvement in living conditions. The “Uzbekistan – 2030” strategy also includes steps to reduce poverty in the country. It was stated that the Ministry of Poverty Reduction and Employment in Uzbekistan will work with Chinese experts and international organizations to develop a strategy for reducing poverty from 2024 to 2030. This will aim to halve poverty by 2026, raise the income of 4.5 million people at risk of falling into poverty by 2030, and lift three million young people out of poverty by utilizing their labor skills. According to data, at the end of 2020, approximately six million people in Uzbekistan lived below the poverty line. While evaluating the results of the transformation programs aimed at solving the problems of poverty, it was noted that in 2023, the poverty rate in Uzbekistan decreased from 17% to 11%, meaning such programs have already helped lift almost two million people out of poverty. It is planned that the poverty level in Uzbekistan will be reduced to 7% in the next three years. This work to reduce poverty has been lauded at the international level. Dr. Ambar Narayan, Manager of the Global Poverty and Equality practice of the World Bank in Europe and Central Asia, for example, has recognized that large-scale work on poverty reduction has been carried out in Uzbekistan since 2020. Naravan believes that prioritizing investment in economic mobility and developing opportunities for vulnerable sections of the population, including youth, women, and inexperienced workers, will help create more productive jobs and reduce hardship. Geoffrey Ijumba, acting head of the UNICEF office in Uzbekistan, has also praised Uzbekistan’s efforts to develop a nationwide action plan to end child poverty. “Prioritizing the problem of child poverty, as well as the development of appropriate measures and programs, will allow Uzbekistan to achieve its goals of reducing poverty, as stated in the ‘Uzbekistan – 2030’ strategy. It will also help achieve the MDG (Millennium Development Goal) targets of ending child extreme poverty and halving it according to the national definition,” Ijumba stated. Global Finance published a list of the poorest countries in the world in 2024 based on the International Monetary Fund's data. Kazakhstan...

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Uzbekistan Leads Central Asia in World Happiness Report

The World Population Review has announced this year's list of the happiest countries in the world. Since 2002 the World Happiness Report has used statistical analysis to determine the probable wellbeing of countries. To determine the happiest country in the world, researchers analyzed Gallup poll data collected from 143 countries over the past three years. The index looks at six categories: gross domestic product per capita, social support, life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity of the general population, and perceptions of internal and external corruption levels. The seven happiest countries in the world for 2024 are all in Europe, with six of them being in Northern Europe. Finland is in first place, followed by Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Israel, the Netherlands, and Norway. Afghanistan ranked as the least happy country in 2024, placing 143rd. This is due to factors like low life expectancy, low GDP per capita, and the impact of the Taliban takeover. Uzbekistan takes 47th place in the ranking and is the happiest country in Central Asia. Kazakhstan is next, in 49th place overall, falling from 44th last year. Kazakhstan’s relatively slow population growth will allow the country to continue makihttps://timesca.com/uzbekistan-leads-central-asia-in-world-happiness-report/ng economic progress and reduce poverty in the coming decades. Tajikistan ranks 88th on the list. The World Happiness Report says: “Tajikistan’s population boom threatens its economy and resources. The government has implemented laws in the past to encourage contraception, and while this has helped bring down the birth rate, the country still has a long way to go.” The report doesn’t provide information about Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan this year. According to the most recent data for them, Turkmenistan was 78th in 2022, and Kyrgyzstan was 62nd in 2023.

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Saudi Fund Contributes $100 Million Towards Rogun Hydropower Plant in Tajikistan

The Saudi Development Fund has allocated $100 million to finance the completion of the Rogun hydropower plant in Tajikistan. This was announced by the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the Republic of Tajikistan, Walid bin Abdulrahman Al-Rashidan, at a press conference dedicated to the 94th anniversary of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's founding. “This project is strategically important for the country, as it will ensure energy security and sustainable economic growth. The Rogun HPP is a key element of Tajikistan's energy infrastructure; it will significantly increase electricity production and strengthen its position regionally,” Al-Rashidan said. Saudi Arabia’s financial support strengthens bilateral cooperation in energy and economic relations. The estimated cost of completing the construction of the Rogun HPP is $6.4 billion. Once it reaches full capacity, about 70% of the electricity generated will be exported to other Central Asian countries. According to a report by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), the financing of the Rogun HPP is one of the main risks for Tajikistan’s budget and debt sustainability. A possible increase in the cost of hydropower construction could reduce funding for other essential infrastructure projects and social spending. Analysts emphasize that “in the face of uncertainty regarding funding sources, starting in 2025, the government of Tajikistan may have additional needs for budgetary support from international financial organizations.”

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Central Asian Countries Unite To Support Women and Children Repatriated From Conflict Zones

UNICEF Uzbekistan reports that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are actively working to improve the support system for women and children returning from conflict zones, such as Iraq and Syria. In support of the European Union's project “The second phase of EU-UN support to Central Asian states for their citizens returning from conflict zones,” delegations from the above met to discuss their shared experiences and means of providing necessary support and services for successfully reintegrating women and children into society. Uzbekistan was one of the first countries in Central Asia to start repatriating its citizens from conflict zones. Since 2019, the country has undertaken several missions to return women and children stranded in conflict zones as part of operations known as “Mehr” (“kindness” in Uzbek). The “Mehr-1” and “Mehr-2” operations have enabled the Government of Uzbekistan to repatriate many of its citizens, and in cooperation with the government of Iraq and UNICEF, offer a safe haven in their motherland for children deprived of basic necessities such as food, clean water, and medical care while living in war zones and refugee camps. On their return, repatriated citizens are placed in special sanatoriums where they are provided with hot food, clothing, and the services of doctors, therapists, and teachers. To date, Uzbekistan has successfully repatriated 531 citizens, including 331 children, 125 women, and 27 men. The country's initiative has been praised internationally and noting its focus on the interests of children and supporting the family unity and society, Ní Aoláin, a UN expert has stateed that, “The Uzbek model of repatriation and reintegration provides a roadmap for other governments to return their nationals from conflict zones." Kazakhstan, likewise, has committed to the repatriation of its citizens from areas previously controlled by the Islamic State, and has launched operations “Jusan” and “Rusafa”, implemented with a high level of coordination between various government agencies, including national security services, diplomats, and the military. One of the most essential repatriations took place within the framework of the “Jusan” operation, launched in 2019. The name “Jusan” means bitter wormwood; native to Kazakhstan and a symbol of homesickness. Through this operation, hundreds of women and children were rescued from dangerous refugee camps in Syria, including the notorious Al-Hol Camp. Maryam, one of the women repatriated during the “Jusan” operation, said that the "first time a delegation from Kazakhstan arrived was to collect data on Kazakh citizens in the Al-Hol Camp. They promised to come back for us soon. A month of waiting felt like an eternity to us.” According to women from the tent camp, the shortage of drinking water and provisions, essential medicines, and the unbearable heat aggravated the situation and led to constant conflicts between residents. The humanitarian operations “Jusan” and “Rusafa” enabled the return of 725 people to Kazakhstan, including 188 women and 522 children, most of whom were under twelve years of age. Kazakhstan's success in such operations has been attributed to the high level of investment by the state. According to Gabit Konusov,...