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The Onset of “Friend-Shoring” in Central Asia

As Central Asia’s significance for global supply chains grows, the world’s major economic powers are seeking closer economic ties with the region’s countries. China, Russia, and the West all curry favor through investments and initiatives to bolster the region’s exports and secure their supply chains. Bordering China and Russia, Central Asia spans a land surface area corresponding to 87% the size of the entire European Union (EU). The region has a combined market of 76 million people and gross domestic product of 450 billion U.S. dollars. It is critical to global energy supply chains as it possesses 20% of the world's uranium reserves, as well as 17.2% of total oil and 7% of natural gas deposits. Kazakhstan produces over half of the EU’s critical raw materials, i.e. substances used in technology which are subject to supply risks and are hard to replace with substitutes. In the first seven months of 2024, rail cargo across the Middle Corridor, a trans-Caspian trade route linking China to Europe, has increased 14-fold compared to the same period last year. As the region opens up and undergoes significant economic transformation, supply chains are increasingly directed there, sparking competition for control over its vast natural resources and production capabilities. Major economic powers are stepping in to strengthen bilateral ties to ensure reliable trade partnerships. These strategies, known as “friend-shoring,” aim to reduce geopolitical risks, enhance supply chain stability, and transform Central Asian countries into trusted allies by fostering strong bilateral relationships and deeper economic ties. China and Russia remain at the helm of regional activity China has been actively engaging with Central Asian countries through strengthening economic ties and building strategic partnerships. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to enhance infrastructure and trade connectivity across the region, China has helped strengthen the region’s rail network. China supplies equipment and invests in Uzbekistan’s electric vehicles, scooters, and leather production. Uzbekistan, in partnership with PowerChina and Saudi company ACWA Power, is also constructing the country’s first green hydrogen plant. Kyrgyzstan’s bilateral trade with China was up 30% in 2023 compared to 2022. This year, Turkmenistan has surpassed Russia in gas exports to China. In 2023, Kazakhstan's agricultural exports to China doubled to $1 billion compared to 2022, making China the largest importer of agricultural products from the country. Historically, Russia has been a major trading partner for Central Asian countries due to the Soviet legacy of a command economy, which established strong economic interdependencies that persisted in post-USSR period. While the region is aggressively diversifying its trade relationships, Russia is increasing gas supplies and energy infrastructure investments, specifically in renewables and nuclear facilities. Kazakhstan delivers most of its oil to Europe through Russia. Russian-led organizations, including the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), promote cooperation and economic integration with free movement of goods, services, and capital among member states. Russia's war against Ukraine has disrupted supply chains, but it has also opened up new trade opportunities, especially for Kazakhstan, as...

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New York NGO Calls on Tajik Authorities to Release Journalist Ahmad Ibrohim

The New York-based press freedom NGO the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has called on the Tajik authorities to release journalist Ahmad Ibrohim. Ibrohim is the founder and editor-in-chief of Paiq, the only independent newspaper in Tajikistan's Khatlon region. According to Radio Ozodi sources, Ibrohim was detained on August 12. CPJ expressed concern that his arrest underscores the dangers journalists in Tajikistan face. CPJ's Program Coordinator for Europe and Central Asia, Gulnoza Said, said Tajik authorities should release Ibrohim and seven other journalists imprisoned for their professional activities, and ensure media freedom. Officials have not yet provided information about Ibrohim's detention, and his relatives refuse to comment. However, a source in the security services said that a criminal case had been opened against him under Article 320 of the Criminal Code (bribery), allegedly for attempting to bribe a government official to extend Paiq's registration. This is not the first instance of government pressure on Paiq. In 2014, the regional prosecutor's office stopped the newspaper from operating, citing problems with renewing its registration. Despite this, Ahmad Ibrohim continued to work, remaining one of the few independent journalists in the region.

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Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan Border Demarcation Completed

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have completed negotiations to demarcate their common border, which had been disputed for many years. The final meeting of the two countries' topographic-legal working groups was completed in the town of Batken in Kyrgyzstan on August 11-17. This has been reported by the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan. "During this meeting, the parties continued the discussion and exchanged proposals on the description of the passage of the Tajik-Kyrgyz state border line in the remaining sections," the Committee commented. At the end of June, The Times of Central Asia reported that 94% of the borderline between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had been fully delineated. The conflict was caused by uncertainties regarding the exact demarcation of the border between the two republics, which spans some 980 kilometers. With its scant natural resources and dwindling water supplies, the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been the scene of numerous armed conflicts. This situation arose after the collapse of the USSR – the parties could not agree on the ownership of dozens of disputed territories. The borderless areas have become a zone of conflict between the local population and the border troops of the other country. The last major conflict took place on September 16, 2022, as a result of which hundreds of people were killed and injured on both sides. Huge material damage was caused to the infrastructure of the border areas of the regions of Sogd (Tajikistan) and Batken (Kyrgyzstan).

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SCO Summit: Eurasian Alliance Signs Security Agreements; Welcomes Belarus

By Jonathan Campion, reporting from the SCO Summit in Astana At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Astana this morning, leaders from the bloc’s member states signed a host of agreements intended to promote cohesion in the Eurasia region. The first session, which was held behind closed doors, had begun with the signing of the document that accepted Belarus as the SCO’s 10th full member. The SCO is a political, security and economic alliance, of which Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are founding members. The group also includes China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, and now Belarus. The organization has four observer states and 14 dialogue partners, covering half of the world’s population, and almost a third of global GDP. The first agreement signed was a document outlining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s development strategy for the next 12 months. In 2025 Kazakhstan will pass chairmanship of the alliance to China, and there is speculation that the SCO may grow further next year, to include at least one new member. With security a growing concern for members, particularly in light of the March terrorist attack outside Moscow, for which the terror group Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) have claimed responsibility, leaders approved the SCO’s latest three-year Cooperation Program to counter terrorism, separatism and extremism. The parties also signed an agreement on the organization’s regional anti-drug strategy. Another high-profile document is the SCO’s development strategy for cooperation in the energy sphere. Kazakhstan is at the forefront of the region’s transition to green energy, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping mentioning the country’s new Zhanatas wind farm and the Turgusun hydropower station as key joint projects with China in an article published in the Kazakh press this week. The heads of state were welcomed to the Summit by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus and Chinese leader Xi Jinping the last to arrive, ten minutes after the other dignitaries. Some leaders did not arrive at all: India’s Narendra Modi is not attending this year’s SCO Summit, and has sent the country’s external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in his place. The Summit's afternoon session is styled as "SCO Plus". In attendance are the heads of state of the alliance's dialogue partners, including the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev. Turkmenistan – which is not affiliated to the SCO but which is invited as a guest – is led not by its President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, but by his father Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, the former leader who is now the chairman of the country’s People’s Council.

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Astana Hosts SCO Summit: A New Platform for Kazakh Diplomacy

With the first events of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit taking place this morning in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, conversations are beginning about what the host country will be discussing – and with whom. The SCO is a political, security and economic alliance in the wider Eurasia region, aimed at promoting trade and investments between member states, as well as global security. Its nine full members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China, Russia, Iran, India and Pakistan. The Organization – which includes four observer states and 14 dialogue partners – covers half of the world’s population, and almost a third of global GDP. Kazakhstan’s multi-vector approach to its foreign policy has seen the country combining its role within the SCO with cooperation with Western governments, through dialogue with the European Union and the United States’ C5+1 platform. President Tokayev recently commented that: “Kazakhstan is committed to multilateral cooperation. In our foreign policy we proceed from the national interests, and are in favor of solving all disputable issues on the basis of rational compromise. In addition to the SCO, this year our country is chairing five other international organizations. This is an unprecedented case, one could say an achievement in the history of Kazakh diplomacy.” This multi-vector approach is key to Kazakhstan’s international diplomacy. Indeed, ‘mutually beneficial cooperation’ and ‘mutually beneficial strategic partnership’ have become the watchwords of Tokayev’s presidency. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan has become an increasingly important land-bridge between East and West, both in terms of trade and diplomacy. Due to projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor, Kazakhstan’s location has made it an indispensable ally to China, whilst playing a pivotal role in the expansion of transcontinental trade has led to Central Asia, in the words of Tokayev, “become a global stakeholder.” In the opinion of experts, more of the same can be expected at this week’s SCO Summit. In an interview conducted by the Kazinform news agency, local political analyst Valery Volodin stressed that: “It goes without saying that each government will be defending its own interests [at the Summit]. But Kazakhstan will be placing an emphasis on regional stability, which will allow countries to implement a host of joint projects with China and Russia. Besides this, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s gift for diplomacy will push the SCO to become not just a discussion club, but a real mechanism to solve problems in Eurasia using dialogue between governments.” In an article in The Geopolitics, Michael Rossi, a professor of political science at Long Island University, posited that Kazakhstan is not playing the so-called ‘Great Game’ between East and West, but rather pointing out the scope for "Big Opportunities". “Kazakhstan’s positive relations with countries often in conflict, such as Russia and Ukraine, China and the United States, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and Israel and the Palestinian territories, grant Astana legitimacy,” Rossi writes, “to act as a buffer and stabilizing force among major powers. This positioning allows Kazakhstan to reduce tensions and potentially mediate conflicts. Under...

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SCO Summit: Tokayev and Xi Laud Kazakhstan-China Ties

On the eve of the 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, hosted this year by Kazakhstan in its capital Astana, the leaders of Kazakhstan and China were keen to highlight the strength of their countries’ partnership. The SCO is a political, security and economic alliance in the wider Eurasia region, aimed at promoting trade and investments between member states, as well as global security. The Organization – which includes nine full members, four observer states and 14 dialogue partners – covers half of the world’s population, and almost a third of global GDP. In comments to China’s Xinhua news agency, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke of a “close political dialogue” between the two countries, supported by the SCO, thanks to which “China is consolidating its position as Kazakhstan’s leading trade and investment partner”. Mutual trade between the countries reached a historic record of $41 billion in 2023. Tokayev added that “China became one of the top four foreign investors in Kazakhstan in 2023, investing around $2 billion in direct investments, a year-on-year growth of 16.4%. The total volume of Chinese investment in the Kazakh economy is over $25 billion. Around 4,700 Kazakh-Chinese enterprises operate in our country.” In his comments to Xinhua Tokayev also highlighted Kazakhstan’s growing cultural ties with China, mentioning a new agreement on a visa-free regime between the countries, the creation of cultural centers in both nations, and the fact that 2024 has been named the “Year of Kazakhstan tourism in China”. The president himself lived in China for eight years, where he studied Chinese in Beijing before working for the Soviet Union’s embassy to China. In turn, in a letter published by the Kazinform news agency, China’s leader Xi Jinping noted: “China is now Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner and its top export destination. Major strategic projects including the Zhanatas wind farm, Turgusun hydropower station, and the modernization of Shymkent Oil Refinery have been completed and commissioned. China-Kazakhstan crude oil and natural gas pipelines are operating in a safe and stable manner. The ‘green lanes’ for fast customs clearance of agricultural products are available at all border ports between the two countries, which makes green agri-products of high quality from Kazakhstan easily accessible for Chinese consumers. The potential for cooperation in new energy and transportation infrastructure has been unleashed. The transport and logistics terminal in Xi’an, the Western Europe-Western China Highway, and the China-Europe Railway Express all operate smoothly, providing a strong boost to the development of both China and Kazakhstan.” Kazakhstan has a multi-vector approach to its foreign policy; its role within the SCO complements the country's cooperation with the United States through the C5+1 platform, and a constant dialogue with the European Union. In a recent speech about Kazakhstan's chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization this year, President Tokayev commented: "Kazakhstan is committed to multilateral cooperation. In our foreign policy we proceed from the national interests, and are in favor of solving all disputable issues on the basis of rational compromise. In addition to the...