European Union Commissioner for International Partnerships Josef Sikela has concluded his tour of Central Asia, a visit conducted against the backdrop of global geopolitical turbulence. Unlike previous engagements, where European officials often criticized the region’s leadership for a lack of democratic progress, Sikela refrained from making demands on local governments.

Historically, Europe has accused Central Asian states of authoritarianism and the entrenchment of long-serving leaders. However, the idea that power is uniquely permanent in the region is increasingly questioned. Critics point to Western examples, such as Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure as Germany’s chancellor, and alleged electoral manipulation within the EU, such as in Romania, where elections were annulled after an undesired candidate’s victory. Meanwhile, in Central Asia, even presidents once considered “eternal” have eventually left office, sometimes peacefully, sometimes under turbulent conditions.

Kyrgyzstan: The Unpredictable Outlier

Kyrgyzstan is often described as a “democratic exception” within Central Asia, yet its history is marked by political instability and frequent leadership changes, arguably more so than in many of the world’s most conflict-prone regions.

The country’s first president, Askar Akayev, held power from 1990 to 2005. Though re-elected three times, his rule ended in March 2005 when protests erupted over parliamentary election results that heavily favored pro-government candidates. Demonstrators stormed the Government House in Bishkek, prompting Akayev to flee. Reports, though unverified, claimed he was smuggled out wrapped in a carpet.

Following Akayev’s ouster, Kurmanbek Bakiyev took power, but his rule ended in 2010 after violent unrest. His downfall was allegedly facilitated by Kazakhstan’s intelligence services, and he later found political asylum in Belarus under President Alexander Lukashenko.

Since Bakiyev’s departure, Kyrgyzstan has continued to experience political turbulence. Presidents Almazbek Atambayev (2010-2017) and Sooronbai Jeenbekov (2017-2020) both left office under pressure. Atambayev’s tenure saw a diplomatic fallout with Kazakhstan, while Jeenbekov resigned in 2020 amid protests over parliamentary elections. His successor, Sadyr Japarov, remains in office, but whether he will complete his term is an open question.

Uzbekistan: Reform Within Limits

Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s first post-Soviet leader, ruled for over 26 years before his death in 2016. While he maintained a strictly centralized government, his tenure was also marked by violent crackdowns, most notably the Andijan uprising in 2005, which resulted in a Western diplomatic fallout​.

His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has introduced some reforms, loosening restrictions on civil liberties and the economy. However, the fundamental structure of state control remains intact, with opposition movements still tightly monitored.

Kazakhstan: From Nazarbayev to Tokayev

Kazakhstan’s transition from Nursultan Nazarbayev to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is often described as managed succession rather than a genuine power shift. Nazarbayev, who led Kazakhstan for nearly three decades, officially stepped down in 2019, yet retained significant influence until the January 2022 unrest, which forced him to relinquish much of his remaining power.

These protests, initially sparked by fuel price hikes, rapidly escalated into anti-government riots. While official accounts describe the unrest as an attempted coup orchestrated by figures within Nazarbayev’s inner circle, critics suggest Tokayev used the crisis to consolidate power. Tokayev initiated and passed a new constitutional amendment now limiting Kazakhstan’s presidency to a single seven-year term​.

Tajikistan: A Family Dynasty in Waiting?

Tajikistan’s first president, Rakhmon Nabiyev, faced early instability, and his 1992 resignation amid civil war paved the way for Emomali Rahmon, who has ruled ever since. Many believe Rahmon is preparing his son, Rustam Emomali, the current mayor of Dushanbe, to inherit power, effectively transforming the presidency into a family dynasty​.

Turkmenistan: Power in Name or Reality?

Turkmenistan remains the only Central Asian republic where leadership has formally passed from father to son. Saparmurat Niyazov, known as “Turkmenbashi”, ruled until his death in 2006, after which Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov took power. In 2022, he handed the presidency to his son, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, though many suspect real power remains with the elder Berdimuhamedov, who now chairs the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council)​.

Conclusion: A Shifting Political Landscape

Central Asia presents a complex picture of governance, where long-term rulers have either strategically passed power or been removed through upheaval. While critics argue that the region remains authoritarian, others point out that Western models of democracy are not always as transparent or stable as they appear.

What remains undeniable is that political evolution in Central Asia continues, sometimes through carefully managed transitions, sometimes through unrest, coups, or protest-driven resignations. Whether these shifts lead to lasting reforms or entrenched power structures in new forms remains to be seen.