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Central Asia Endures Record-Breaking March Heatwave Attributed to Climate Change

Central Asia experienced an unprecedented heatwave in March 2025, with temperatures soaring to levels typically seen in late spring or summer. According to a new study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), cities across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan recorded daytime highs near or above 30°C, far above the seasonal norm. In Kyrgyzstan's Jalalabad, the temperature peaked at 30.8°C, while Uzbekistan's Namangan and Fergana registered 29.4°C and 29.1°C, respectively. Kazakhstan’s Shahdara witnessed a nighttime low of 18.3°C, the hottest March night ever recorded in the country. Researchers from the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States, and the United Kingdom examined the five hottest days and nights in March across the region. Their findings indicate that human-induced climate change made the heatwave approximately 4°C hotter and nearly three times more likely. They also noted that climate models tend to underestimate early-season heat, particularly in March. Economic and Agricultural Risks The timing of the heatwave posed serious challenges for agriculture. In Kazakhstan, the spike in temperatures coincided with the start of spring wheat planting, while in neighboring countries, fruit trees were already in bloom, raising concerns about yield losses. Agriculture remains a critical sector in the region, employing up to 50% of the workforce in some countries and contributing between 5% and 24% to GDP. The region also depends heavily on glacier-fed irrigation systems. Unseasonably warm weather can accelerate snowmelt, depleting water reserves needed during peak agricultural demand later in the season. In response to declining glacier volumes, seven artificial glaciers were built in southern Kyrgyzstan's Batken region in late autumn 2024 to support future water needs. A Warming Future The WWA study warns that without significant emissions reductions, such heatwaves will become increasingly frequent and intense. If global warming reaches 2.6°C, events like March 2025 could become far more common. Governments in Central Asia are beginning to take action. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, for example, have integrated heat-related risks into their national climate adaptation plans. Still, experts urge a broader, more coordinated regional response, calling for the use of heat-tolerant crops, enhanced early warning systems, and climate-conscious urban planning.

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Unpacking the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Central Asia

Trade analysts across Central Asia generally agree that the immediate impact of the United States' tariff policy on the export dynamics of their nations will likely be minimal, as observed in past experiences, except for Kazakhstan. However, there is a palpable concern regarding potential unforeseen consequences arising from a broader global trade conflict. Notably, the timing of the Trump administration's announcement regarding global tariffs on imports coincides with a period when Central Asian countries are actively working to enhance their regional trade relationships. This new tariff policy raises significant doubts about the authenticity of recent U.S. efforts to promote increased trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals coming from Washington may lead Central Asian leaders to re-evaluate their current trade partnerships, especially as they consider the benefits of strengthening ties with China and Russia against the attractiveness of expanding commerce with the United States. Similarly, the European Union may find an opportunity to improve its position, while India could leverage the Chabahar route (a multi-modal transportation route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially Central Asia and Europe). It is worth noting that the market is primarily situated in Asia, and this alternative could have adverse long-term effects on the United States. Kazakhstan, acknowledged as the United States’ largest trading partner in Central Asia, is poised to face significant repercussions from introducing new tariffs set at 27%. In 2024, trade relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan reached an impressive total of $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in imports from Kazakhstan to the U.S. However, a statement from the Kazakh Trade Ministry indicates that exports to the U.S. primarily consist of crude oil, uranium, silver, and other raw materials, all exempt from these tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported only $95.2 million worth of goods, which will now incur surcharges – a relatively modest figure compared to the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4 billion. Trade analysts suggest that Kazakhstan has little cause for concern, viewing this situation more as a psychological impact than a serious economic threat. Resource-driven Central Asian economies, such as Kazakhstan, may even find enhanced opportunities in the expanding Asian market. Trade dynamics in Central Asia reveal a complex landscape, especially concerning the United States. In 2024, Uzbekistan managed to export a modest $42.4 million worth of goods to the US, a small fraction considering its total foreign trade turnover, which reached an impressive $66 billion for that year. This stark contrast highlights the limited engagement of Uzbekistan in the American market. With its total trade turnover of $16 billion in 2024, Kyrgyzstan similarly struggled with exports to the US, which amounted to merely $16.7 million. This reflects a broader trend where Central Asian economies exhibit low volume exports to the US, suggesting significant barriers or challenges in establishing a foothold in this lucrative market. Tajikistan's economic performance presented an even more sobering picture. Recording a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion, the country achieved only $4.6 million...

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European Investment Bank Commits €365 Million to Environmental Projects in Central Asia

At the first EU-Central Asia Summit, held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on April 4, European Investment Bank (EIB) Vice-President Kyriacos Kakouris signed four memorandums of understanding with partners in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The agreements will direct €365 million in funding and are expected to unlock up to €1 billion in investment for sustainable transport, water management, and climate resilience initiatives across the region. The EIB is the long-term lending institution of the European Union. These agreements support the EU’s Global Gateway strategy, which aims to boost private sector development, improve transport and logistics infrastructure, and strengthen water management and environmental sustainability throughout Central Asia. In Kyrgyzstan, the EIB will provide €50 million through the Kyrgyzstan State Development Bank to support infrastructure investments via the National Promotional Bank. Tajikistan will receive €100 million to develop sustainable transport infrastructure along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. In Uzbekistan, €175 million will be allocated to the Uzbekistan Water Implementation Center for water management and environmental sustainability projects, particularly under the Aral Sea Project, in collaboration with the French Development Agency (AFD). Additionally, Uzbekistan’s JSCB Microcredit bank will receive €40 million to bolster private sector development and to enable local financing for projects that contribute to sustainable transport and logistics connectivity. During the summit, Kakouris also signed a Host Country Agreement with Uzbekistan, establishing an EIB Regional Representation in the country to enhance the Bank’s presence in Central Asia. The EIB further announced the launch of negotiations for a framework agreement with Turkmenistan, signaling plans to begin operations there. “These agreements underscore the European Union and Central Asia’s shared commitment to deepening mutually beneficial cooperation,” said Kakouris. “As the EU’s bank, the EIB will continue playing a pivotal role in strengthening economic ties, promoting sustainability and private sector development, and enhancing infrastructure across the region. The memorandums of understanding pave the way for future financing in the transport and water sectors. Moreover, the Host Country Agreement with Uzbekistan and the launch of negotiations with Turkmenistan mark important milestones for the EU’s growing engagement in Central Asia.”

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Central Asia Launches Joint Initiative to Eliminate Tuberculosis by 2030

All five Central Asian nations have launched a regional campaign titled “Central Asia Free of Tuberculosis” with the ambitious goal of eliminating tuberculosis (TB), including drug-resistant strains, across the region by 2030, according to Turkmenportal. The initiative is led by the WHO Regional Office for Europe and supported by international health organizations. Health ministers and senior officials from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan convened in Astana to formally launch the campaign and sign a joint declaration. The agreement outlines commitments to work closely with the World Health Organization (WHO), the Stop TB Partnership, the Global Fund, civil society organizations, and other partners. Over the past decade, the five countries have made significant strides in combating TB through the introduction of new treatments and improved disease surveillance systems. The new initiative aims to accelerate these efforts toward total eradication. Key Objectives of the Initiative Include: Testing Coverage: Ensure that at least 95% of all new and recurrent TB cases are diagnosed using rapid WHO-recommended diagnostic tools, which are already in place across the region. Treatment Expansion: Broaden access to shorter, injection-free treatments for drug-resistant TB, which have demonstrated success rates of over 85%. Vaccine Preparedness: Prepare national health systems for the rollout of new TB vaccines once they become available. Primary Healthcare Integration: Incorporate TB diagnosis and treatment into each country’s primary healthcare system, with support from WHO’s Primary Health Care Centre in Almaty. WHO Regional Director Dr. Hans Kluge commended the political leadership demonstrated by the Central Asian governments. He emphasized that the region is now closer than ever to achieving TB elimination but must sustain its commitment through continued investments and stigma-reduction efforts to ensure equitable access to care. The regional strategy is expected to yield significant results by 2027 and will serve as a framework for monitoring and accelerating progress toward TB elimination in Central Asia.

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Samarkand Declaration Paves the Way for a Stronger Central Asia–EU Partnership

The inaugural Central Asia-European Union Summit, held in Samarkand on April 3-4, marked a significant milestone in strengthening ties between the two regions. According to Sherzod Asadov, press secretary to Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the summit's most significant outcome is the adoption of the Samarkand Declaration, which is expected to provide strong momentum for expanding constructive dialogue and cooperation across all sectors. In a statement, the EU reaffirmed its "commitment to deeper cooperation in an evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape [and] upgrade relations between the European Union and Central Asia to a strategic partnership." The EU declaration also committed the bloc to respect the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states within the framework of all international and regional fora" and expressed readiness to "address common security challenges." Strengthening Economic Ties Economic cooperation featured prominently on the agenda. Since 2020, trade between Uzbekistan and the EU has doubled, now exceeding €6 billion. Uzbek exports to the EU have quadrupled, and the number of joint ventures has surpassed a thousand. European investment projects in Uzbekistan, meanwhile, are now valued at over €30 billion. A key development was the agreement to open a regional office of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Tashkent. Established in 1958, the EIB is the EU’s primary financial institution, and its new office is expected to attract greater investment in green energy, modern infrastructure, and digitalization. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also deepened its engagement in Uzbekistan, investing over €5 billion to date. “We must work together to simplify trade procedures and ensure that Central Asian products gain greater access to European markets. Only through joint efforts can we build a strong and resilient economic partnership,” Mirziyoyev told Euronews. "Over the past seven years, the trade turnover between Central Asian countries and the EU has quadrupled, amounting to 54 billion euros... The signing of the Samarkand Declaration will reflect the common aspiration of the parties to establish a strategic partnership and lay the foundation for deepening ties between our regions." During the summit, Mirziyoyev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa. Discussions focused on trade, investment, green energy, and digital development, with the EU’s "Global Gateway” strategy, a counterpart to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a central topic. The initiative is seeking to enhance global infrastructure and connectivity while promoting sustainability and transparency. “The EU and Central Asia are becoming closer partners, and this summit marks the beginning of a new phase in our cooperation,” von der Leyen stated. An Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Uzbekistan and the EU is also under negotiation. Regional Dialogue Among Central Asian Leaders The Summit also offered a platform for Central Asian heads of state to hold bilateral discussions. Mirziyoyev met with his counterparts from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Talks centered on increasing trade, improving border security, and advancing major infrastructure projects. A recent landmark border agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan was lauded as a breakthrough. Uzbekistan...

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A Historic Gathering: The First Central Asia-European Union Summit in Samarkand

Excitement is building in Samarkand as it gears up to host the inaugural Central Asia-European Union Summit. This landmark event promises to pave the way for significant negotiations and collaboration, bringing together leaders and representatives from both regions. With a rich cultural backdrop and a vibrant atmosphere, Samarkand is poised to play a crucial role in shaping the future of partnerships and cooperation between Central Asia and the European Union. In recent weeks, Uzbekistan has experienced notable advancements in its foreign policy, signaling a proactive approach to international collaboration. A highlighted event was the fruitful engagement between Uzbekistan's head of state and Kaja Kallas, the High-level Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Additionally, a delegation led by Josef Sikela, the European Union Commissioner for International Cooperation, participated in discussions to foster deeper ties. A significant milestone on the horizon is the inaugural Central Asia-European Union summit, set to unfold in the historic city of Samarkand on April 3-4. During a pivotal meeting on March 27 with Kallas, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev meticulously explored the preparations for this groundbreaking summit, which has captured global attention due to its potential to reshape regional dynamics. The leaders engaged in a rich exchange of ideas focused on bolstering practical cooperation between their regions and planning future collaborative events that could further strengthen these ties. The significance of fostering mutually beneficial cooperation between the two regions in trade and logistics was emphasized during the meeting. This includes harnessing the potential of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, advancing digitalization, promoting green energy, addressing ecological concerns, modernizing infrastructure, and other priority areas. The introduction of effective mechanisms for implementing initiatives and projects in these fields was also highlighted. Participants exchanged views on enhancing Uzbekistan's relations with European Union organizations, discussing adopting a new agreement for enhanced partnership and cooperation and Uzbekistan's accession to the World Trade Organization. Current international and regional policy issues were also addressed. Additionally, on March 18, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with a delegation led by Josef Sikela, the European Union Commissioner for International Cooperation. This meeting discussed critical matters regarding further developing multifaceted relations between Uzbekistan and the European Union. Moreover, plans for organizing the inaugural "Central Asia - EU" summit and the Climate Forum in Samarkand were considered. In recent years, bilateral cooperation with the European Union has accelerated across political, trade, economic, investment, and cultural-humanitarian spheres, presenting extensive opportunities for the continued expansion of these ties. A new Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Uzbekistan and the European Union is anticipated to be signed soon. Both parties have expressed a keen interest in promoting joint projects and programs across transport and logistics, energy, digitalization, agriculture, water management, and other key areas. Kallas conveyed warm greetings and best wishes on behalf of key EU figures, including António Costa, the President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission. The discussions underscored the necessity of cultivating mutually beneficial cooperation across various sectors, including...