Turkmenistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Podcast

Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Available Now with Eduards Stiprais, EU Special Representative for Central Asia

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team is joined by the EU Special Representative for Central Asia, Eduards Stiprais, to discuss connectivity, critical minerals, and what's unique about the EU's engagement with Central Asia.

Parliamentary Reform

Analysis: Three Decades of Parliamentary Reform in Central Asia — and What Changed

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced his reform plans on January 20, including structural changes to the government. Arguably, one of the least consequential of those changes is replacing the current bicameral parliament with a unicameral parliament. Across Central Asia, over the last 35 years, parliaments have repeatedly switched from unicameral to bicameral parliaments, or vice versa, the number of deputies has increased and decreased, and in some cases, parallel bodies have come into existence and later disappeared. Kazakhstan When the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991, each of the former republics, including the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, had a unicameral, republican Supreme Soviet elected in 1990. These Supreme Soviets continued functioning after independence until 1994, and in the case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, until 1995. In Kazakhstan, in December 1993, the majority of the 360 deputies in the Supreme Soviet voted to dissolve the body. In March 1994, there were elections to the new parliament (Supreme Kenges) that had 177 seats. During the tumultuous year of 1995, the parliament was dissolved by then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who ruled by decree until snap parliamentary elections in December of that year. However, on August 29, 1995, voters approved a new constitution in a national referendum. That constitution created a bicameral parliament with 67 deputies in the Mazhilis, the lower house, and 50 deputies in the Senate, 10 of them directly appointed by the president. Deputies to the Mazhilis were chosen in popular elections. Senators were chosen in indirect elections involving deputies from local, provincial, and municipal councils of large cities. In the snap parliamentary elections of October 1999, 10 seats were added and chosen by party lists, while the original 67 continued to be contested in single-mandate districts. That structure lasted until 2007. Constitutional amendments adopted in late May that year increased the number of seats in the Mazhilis to 107, of which 98 were to be chosen by party lists. Nazarbayev’s Nur-Otan party won all 98 of the party list seats in the August elections. The remaining nine representatives came from the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan, a group representing the various ethnic groups in Kazakhstan that Nazarbayev created in 1995. Eight additional members of the Assembly were given seats in the Senate. The Assembly held its own elections to fill those seats. Kazakhstan conducted a constitutional referendum in June 2022, in part aimed at mollifying discontent that lingered from the mass unrest in early January that year, which left 238 people dead. Some amendments stripped away powers in the executive branch that had accumulated during the 28 years Nazarbayev was president, and more power was given to parliament. Another amendment removed the nine Mazhilis seats reserved for members of the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan. One amendment reduced the number of Senate members appointed by the president back to 10, after it had been raised to 15 under a 2007 amendment. Kyrgyzstan A referendum in Kyrgyzstan on constitutional amendments in October 1994 created a bicameral...

Children

Between Statistics and Reality: What the UNICEF Report Reveals About Children in Turkmenistan

The State Committee on Statistics of Turkmenistan, in partnership with UNICEF, has released the report “Census 2022 - The Situation of Children in Turkmenistan”. However, as noted by independent outlet turkmen.news, the report is based on official census data that many experts consider unreliable or inflated, potentially skewing the findings. Despite these concerns, the report offers insight into the country’s demographic and social trends. According to the report, Turkmenistan has a notably “young” population: children aged 0-14 make up 30.7% of the total. In total, 2,463,258 individuals under the age of 17 account for more than one-third of the population. However, a decline in the birth rate is evident: there are 1.2 times fewer children in the 0-4 age group compared to those aged 5-9. Household composition data reveals that families with three or more children are the most common, comprising 43% of all households nationally and 48.9% in rural areas. Families with two children account for 31.1%, and those with one child, 25.9%. This distribution correlates with a broader demographic pattern, 57.8% of all children in Turkmenistan live in rural areas. The demographic dependency ratio remains high: there are 755 dependents per 1,000 working-age individuals. Notably, the child dependency rate is 4.3 times higher than that of the elderly, suggesting a sizable future labor force. The urban-rural divide is also apparent here: in rural areas, the child dependency ratio is 698, compared to 525 in urban centers. The report addresses early marriage and childbirth: among 15-17-year-olds, 1,349 boys (0.9%) and 1,770 girls (1.2%) were in either registered or de facto marriages. Within the same age group, 339 girls had already given birth. The highest rate of teenage births was recorded in Akhal region (4.2 per 1,000), while Ashgabat reported the lowest (1.2 per 1,000). Childhood disability statistics show mobility and stair-climbing difficulties are the most prevalent, affecting 3,106 children aged 5-17. Other reported issues include concentration and memory problems (1,989 cases), hearing impairments (1,791), and visual impairments (1,784). In all categories, boys outnumber girls. One of the most striking disparities is in preschool access. Only 23.8% of children in rural areas attend preschool, compared to 64.7% in urban areas, a rural-urban equity index of just 0.37. Given that the majority of children live in rural areas, the gap reflects systemic challenges, including insufficient infrastructure, transportation issues, and household dynamics where caregiving typically falls to women. Enrollment rates improve significantly for older children. Nearly all children aged 6-15 are in school, with only 0.3-0.4% not attending. However, the dropout rate increases in older age groups, with 5.4% of adolescents not enrolled in school or vocational institutions. No significant gender disparities were observed in this regard. Despite the insights the report offers, it is underpinned by 2022 census data that many independent experts argue is inflated. While Turkmenistan's official population stands at around 7 million, alternative estimates range between 2.7 and 5.7 million. Nevertheless, the release of this report marks a step toward a more open dialogue about the country’s social...

Electricity

Central Asia Launches Regional Electricity Market with World Bank Support

On January 22, the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved the 10-year Regional Electricity Market Interconnectivity and Trade (REMIT) Program, an ambitious initiative to establish Central Asia’s first regional electricity market. The program aims to boost cross-border electricity trade, expand transmission capacity, and lay the foundation for large-scale renewable energy integration across the region. Electricity demand in Central Asia is projected to triple by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. Yet electricity trade in the region currently accounts for only 3% of total demand. The REMIT Program seeks to harness Central Asia’s diverse and complementary energy resources: hydropower in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, thermal power from coal and natural gas in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and the region’s rapidly expanding solar and wind potential. Over the next decade, REMIT aims to: Increase regional electricity trade to at least 15,000 GWh annually, enough to supply millions of consumers Triple regional transmission capacity to 16 GW Enable up to 9 GW of clean energy integration The initiative is designed to enhance regional energy security, reduce power outages, lower electricity costs, and promote a more resilient and interconnected grid system. Total indicative financing for the program is $1.018 billion, to be deployed in three phases. These funds will support the creation and operation of a regional energy market, boost transmission infrastructure, introduce digital technologies to improve grid reliability, and strengthen regional energy institutions and coordination mechanisms. Investments are also expected to generate both construction-related employment and high-skilled jobs tied to market operations. In the program’s first phase, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and the Central Asian Countries’ Coordinating Dispatch Center (CDC) Energia will benefit from grants and concessional financing totaling $143.2 million. This comprises $140 million from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) and $3.2 million from the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP). “The REMIT Program supports Central Asian countries’ ambition to deepen energy cooperation and create a regional electricity market,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Regional Director for Central Asia. “This will enable more efficient use of energy resources, including cross-border deployment of clean energy, improve access to reliable and affordable electricity, and support jobs. By 2050, stronger regional connectivity could generate up to $15 billion in economic benefits.” Charles Cormier, World Bank Regional Infrastructure Director for Europe and Central Asia, added that REMIT will advance energy security and unlock private sector investment. “The first phase alone is expected to enable about 900 MW of new clean energy capacity, leveraging $700 million in private investment. This will pave the way for a more resilient and interconnected power system across this dynamic region,” he said. CDC Energia will lead the implementation of market and institutional activities, while national transmission companies will be responsible for infrastructure investments.

CIS

Turkmenistan Secures CIS Backing Ahead of 2026 Chairmanship

The Commonwealth of Independent States has pledged its full support for Turkmenistan’s chairmanship of the CIS in 2026, signaling a rare moment of consensus around Ashgabat’s role within the post-Soviet bloc. According to a statement from the CIS Executive Committee, member states agreed to assist Turkmenistan in implementing its chairmanship program, including organizational, analytical, and coordination support. The commitment was discussed during consultations involving CIS officials and representatives of member governments, with a focus on continuity and practical cooperation within the organization. Turkmenistan, which maintains a policy of permanent neutrality and typically limits its participation in multilateral institutions, is expected to use the chairmanship to emphasize economic cooperation, transport connectivity, and humanitarian initiatives. While Ashgabat has historically kept a low profile within the CIS, its upcoming leadership role offers an opportunity to shape the bloc’s agenda at a time when its relevance is increasingly being questioned. Formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the CIS continues to function as a platform for dialogue and technical cooperation, despite waning political influence and increasing overlap with newer regional formats. For Central Asian states, CIS mechanisms still intersect with trade coordination, labor migration frameworks, and regulatory alignment, even as governments pursue more diversified foreign policy strategies. Turkmenistan’s chairmanship will coincide with broader regional shifts, as Central Asian countries balance engagement with legacy post-Soviet institutions against emerging diplomatic and economic initiatives. Observers note that Ashgabat is likely to adopt a cautious and pragmatic approach, avoiding overt political positioning while focusing on areas consistent with its neutrality doctrine. Further details of Turkmenistan’s chairmanship priorities are expected to be announced in the coming months, as the CIS Executive Committee and Turkmen authorities finalize the agenda and calendar of events.

Politics

Finland’s President Stubb Warns Russia’s Imperial Thinking Poses Risks for Central Asia

Russia’s imperial worldview may pose a greater long-term risk to Central Asia and the South Caucasus than to NATO member states, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with The Washington Post, highlighting concerns that continue to resonate across the post-Soviet space. Speaking with columnist David Ignatius, Stubb referenced Finland’s long and complex history with its eastern neighbor, noting that expansionist thinking remains deeply rooted in Russian political culture. “I think the DNA of Russia is still expansion and imperialism,” he said, arguing that President Vladimir Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as a historical injustice. While much of the Western debate centers on potential threats to NATO countries such as the Baltic states, Finland, or Poland, Stubb suggested that more vulnerable regions lie elsewhere. “I think the more worrying aspect for others is the Central Asian countries, the Southern Caucasus and others,” he said, pointing to what he described as a top-down political system driven by the ideology of Russkiy mir, or the “Russian world.” Stubb also spoke about his personal interactions with Russian officials, including Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stressing that meaningful political dialogue remains unlikely while the war in Ukraine continues. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Russian television host Vladimir Solovyov sparked backlash after suggesting that Moscow could conduct “special military operations” in Central Asia and Armenia. The remarks were widely condemned by Uzbek scholars, journalists, and analysts as destabilizing and provocative. More recently, Russian ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, often described as an ideologue of the “Russian world”, publicly questioned the sovereignty of several former Soviet republics, including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. A video of his comments circulated widely online, drawing sharp criticism across the region. Russia’s Foreign Ministry later sought to distance the Kremlin from such statements. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Solovyov’s remarks did not reflect official policy and reaffirmed that Moscow’s relationships with Central Asian countries are based on partnership and respect for sovereignty.