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Unpacking the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Central Asia

Trade analysts across Central Asia generally agree that the immediate impact of the United States' tariff policy on the export dynamics of their nations will likely be minimal, as observed in past experiences, except for Kazakhstan. However, there is a palpable concern regarding potential unforeseen consequences arising from a broader global trade conflict. Notably, the timing of the Trump administration's announcement regarding global tariffs on imports coincides with a period when Central Asian countries are actively working to enhance their regional trade relationships. This new tariff policy raises significant doubts about the authenticity of recent U.S. efforts to promote increased trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals coming from Washington may lead Central Asian leaders to re-evaluate their current trade partnerships, especially as they consider the benefits of strengthening ties with China and Russia against the attractiveness of expanding commerce with the United States. Similarly, the European Union may find an opportunity to improve its position, while India could leverage the Chabahar route (a multi-modal transportation route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially Central Asia and Europe). It is worth noting that the market is primarily situated in Asia, and this alternative could have adverse long-term effects on the United States. Kazakhstan, acknowledged as the United States’ largest trading partner in Central Asia, is poised to face significant repercussions from introducing new tariffs set at 27%. In 2024, trade relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan reached an impressive total of $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in imports from Kazakhstan to the U.S. However, a statement from the Kazakh Trade Ministry indicates that exports to the U.S. primarily consist of crude oil, uranium, silver, and other raw materials, all exempt from these tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported only $95.2 million worth of goods, which will now incur surcharges – a relatively modest figure compared to the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4 billion. Trade analysts suggest that Kazakhstan has little cause for concern, viewing this situation more as a psychological impact than a serious economic threat. Resource-driven Central Asian economies, such as Kazakhstan, may even find enhanced opportunities in the expanding Asian market. Trade dynamics in Central Asia reveal a complex landscape, especially concerning the United States. In 2024, Uzbekistan managed to export a modest $42.4 million worth of goods to the US, a small fraction considering its total foreign trade turnover, which reached an impressive $66 billion for that year. This stark contrast highlights the limited engagement of Uzbekistan in the American market. With its total trade turnover of $16 billion in 2024, Kyrgyzstan similarly struggled with exports to the US, which amounted to merely $16.7 million. This reflects a broader trend where Central Asian economies exhibit low volume exports to the US, suggesting significant barriers or challenges in establishing a foothold in this lucrative market. Tajikistan's economic performance presented an even more sobering picture. Recording a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion, the country achieved only $4.6 million...

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Central Asia Launches Joint Initiative to Eliminate Tuberculosis by 2030

All five Central Asian nations have launched a regional campaign titled “Central Asia Free of Tuberculosis” with the ambitious goal of eliminating tuberculosis (TB), including drug-resistant strains, across the region by 2030, according to Turkmenportal. The initiative is led by the WHO Regional Office for Europe and supported by international health organizations. Health ministers and senior officials from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan convened in Astana to formally launch the campaign and sign a joint declaration. The agreement outlines commitments to work closely with the World Health Organization (WHO), the Stop TB Partnership, the Global Fund, civil society organizations, and other partners. Over the past decade, the five countries have made significant strides in combating TB through the introduction of new treatments and improved disease surveillance systems. The new initiative aims to accelerate these efforts toward total eradication. Key Objectives of the Initiative Include: Testing Coverage: Ensure that at least 95% of all new and recurrent TB cases are diagnosed using rapid WHO-recommended diagnostic tools, which are already in place across the region. Treatment Expansion: Broaden access to shorter, injection-free treatments for drug-resistant TB, which have demonstrated success rates of over 85%. Vaccine Preparedness: Prepare national health systems for the rollout of new TB vaccines once they become available. Primary Healthcare Integration: Incorporate TB diagnosis and treatment into each country’s primary healthcare system, with support from WHO’s Primary Health Care Centre in Almaty. WHO Regional Director Dr. Hans Kluge commended the political leadership demonstrated by the Central Asian governments. He emphasized that the region is now closer than ever to achieving TB elimination but must sustain its commitment through continued investments and stigma-reduction efforts to ensure equitable access to care. The regional strategy is expected to yield significant results by 2027 and will serve as a framework for monitoring and accelerating progress toward TB elimination in Central Asia.

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UN Calls on Turkmenistan to Probe Suspected Poisoning of Journalist Soltan Achilova

The UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders, Mary Lawlor, has called on Turkmenistan to launch an independent investigation into alleged attempts to poison 75-year-old journalist and human rights activist Soltan Achilova and her family members. The appeal was published on the website of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. “These are extremely serious allegations which, if confirmed, would constitute a violation of Achilova's right to life,” Lawlor stated. “Authorities have an obligation to conduct a thorough investigation and bring the perpetrators to justice.” The alleged poisoning incident occurred in November 2024 when Achilova and her daughter were forcibly hospitalized in an infectious disease clinic on the day they were scheduled to leave the country. Phones were disconnected, and security personnel were reportedly present at the hospital, leading Lawlor to suspect a deliberate attempt to block their departure. “The forced hospitalization of Achilova and her daughter on the day of their departure suggests an attempt to prevent them from traveling,” she said. Lawlor also cited disturbing conditions during their detention. For the first three days, they were not given food, water, or hygiene products. “Such treatment seems to be aimed at further humiliating and intimidating them,” she added. Long-Term Harassment and Intimidation Achilova has endured years of state pressure, including surveillance, travel bans, and property damage. Her phone and online activities are reportedly monitored, and she has not received alternative housing or compensation since her home was demolished in 2006. In both 2017 and 2024, unknown individuals vandalized her family’s property, breaking the windows of her son’s car, but the authorities did not investigate. “Gurbansoltan Achilova has faced years of harassment and intimidation, including previous travel restrictions, concerns that we have already raised with the government on June 19, 2020, and January 11, 2024,” Lawlor said. “Given our repeated appeals, I expect more than another letter refuting the allegations. The authorities must immediately stop all harassment and guarantee Achilova's safety and her ability to work and travel freely.” A Voice for Independent Journalism Soltan Achilova is one of Turkmenistan’s last independent female journalists publishing under her real name. Since 2006, she has been subjected to repeated threats, surveillance, and attacks. In 2023, her passport was deliberately damaged before she could travel to Geneva. In another incident in November 2024, as she prepared for an international trip, unidentified men in white coats broke into her home. One reportedly seized her keys and told her, “Why do you need a key in the other world?” before forcibly taking her to a medical facility. Repression Amid Global Scrutiny Turkmenistan ranks among the worst countries for press freedom, placing 175th out of 180 in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders. The report highlights the systematic persecution of the nation’s remaining independent journalists. The UN continues to monitor Achilova’s case and has urged the Turkmen government to take meaningful steps to end harassment and ensure her safety. The international community is watching closely...

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A New Great Game: Multipolar Competition in Central Asia

At a time when the European Union, China, and Turkey are seeking to strengthen their presence in Central Asia, the United States administration is consumed with bilaterally implementing a seismic shift in its trade policy with the entire world. Although this region of post-Soviet space is widely seen as a new front of rivalry between Washington and Beijing, in many aspects, American influence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan lags far behind that of other actors. Culture (soft power) has always played an important role in the foreign policy of every great power. The Soviet Union was no exception. As a result, even today, Russian, rather than English, is still the lingua franca in Central Asia, although Moscow, following its invasion of Ukraine, has had a hard time preserving remnants of its former dominance in the region. Russian cinema, however, maintains a notable presence in most, if not all, Central Asian states. While Hollywood movies have a strong global presence, Russian films in Central Asia often act as a link between Western content and the region's cultural traditions. Millions of Central Asian migrants working in Russia also serve as a bridge between their nations and the Russian Federation, facilitating cultural exchange, economic ties, and the spread of the Russian language. However, Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine has created space for the EU to assert its influence in a region that has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit. Nevertheless, although Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, are Tajikistan are members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, they have remained neutral in the Ukraine conflict. For Central Asian nations, the EU serves as a counterweight they can use to balance their relations with Moscow. The EU, however, faces strong economic competition from China. With a trade volume of $94.8 billion with Central Asian states, Beijing is positioning itself as the major economic power operating in the five regional nations. Although the European Union’s influence in Central Asia is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, if investment trends from recent years persist, the balance in the region will likely tilt towards China, which will increase its presence and influence at the expense of Russia. But where does the United States fit into this dynamic? Even though the U.S. is the largest economy in the world, with which almost everyone wants to engage, American bilateral trade with the region has never been particularly strong, with the exception of Kazakhstan. Interestingly enough, it is Astana that is expected to suffer the most among Central Asian actors due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs – 27% on Kazakhstan compared to 10% on all other nations in the region. Exceptions may be made for Kazakhstan’s critical minerals, however, which are now the third largest in the world based on a recent discovery, with reports suggesting that some goods, including “certain minerals that are not available in the United States,” as well as energy, will not be subject to the tariffs. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry...

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Mirziyoyev Champions a Flourishing Central Asia by Enhancing Collaboration With the European Union

The global landscape is transforming, driven by geopolitical instability, economic uncertainties, and climate-related challenges. These dynamics are fostering innovative forms of international collaboration. A notable example of this shift is the remarkable fourfold increase in trade between Central Asia and the European Union over the past seven years, culminating in an impressive €54 billion. This surge highlights a growing interest among European businesses in the diverse markets of Central Asia, strategically situated at the intersection of crucial global trade routes. Against this backdrop, the Central Asia-EU summit was held over two days in Samarkand, the "Eternal City", on April 3-4, 2025. During his inaugural address on April 3, 2025, Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev articulated the summit's significance, stating his view that this gathering represented a transformative moment that could redefine regional partnerships. Mirziyoyev reflected on the deep historical connections and shared interests driving the momentum toward closer ties with the EU. The choice of Samarkand — renowned for its rich historical legacy as a center of trade, science, and diplomacy — as the venue for this significant meeting was particularly poignant, as it symbolizes the intersection of cultures and ideas. Mirziyoyev evoked the historical interactions between Amir Temur and European monarchs, underscoring Samarkand as a melting pot of diversity and intellectual exchange. He introduced the notion of the “Samarkand spirit,” which he described as a symbol of unity and interconnectedness that could serve as the foundation for a new chapter in international relations. The President emphasized the sweeping transformations occurring in Central Asia, reinforcing Uzbekistan’s dedication to nurturing good-neighborly relations built on mutual benefit. Miriyoyev candidly acknowledged the region's history of conflicts and disputes but expressed hope for a shift toward constructive dialogue and trust, pointing to the recent resolution of border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as a concrete example of this positive trajectory. Furthermore, he elaborated on ongoing initiatives to establish border trade zones, joint investment funds, and transportation corridors that could enhance connectivity and economic collaboration. Mirziyoyev outlined several key priorities: fortifying regional security, advancing economic integration, and promoting environmental sustainability. He conveyed a sense of optimism, proclaiming, "We are facing a historic chance to make our region not only sustainable but also prosperous." The President discussed Uzbekistan's comprehensive economic reforms to create a conducive business environment and liberalize the foreign exchange market. He expressed optimism that the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) with the EU would significantly enhance trade and investment relations and proposed aligning the EU's Global Gateway strategy with regional transport initiatives to support this. He also advocated for developing an Action Plan for the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. Additionally, he believes there is potential to establish Tashkent as a financial center similar to Hong Kong, as the initial conditions meet the necessary criteria. On energy matters, Mirziyoyev positioned Central Asia as a dependable partner for Europe, highlighting the region's potential to contribute to energy stability and decarbonization efforts. He cited the ambitious Green Strategic Corridor project and the prospect of a Central Asia-EU...

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Samarkand Declaration Paves the Way for a Stronger Central Asia–EU Partnership

The inaugural Central Asia-European Union Summit, held in Samarkand on April 3-4, marked a significant milestone in strengthening ties between the two regions. According to Sherzod Asadov, press secretary to Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the summit's most significant outcome is the adoption of the Samarkand Declaration, which is expected to provide strong momentum for expanding constructive dialogue and cooperation across all sectors. In a statement, the EU reaffirmed its "commitment to deeper cooperation in an evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape [and] upgrade relations between the European Union and Central Asia to a strategic partnership." The EU declaration also committed the bloc to respect the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states within the framework of all international and regional fora" and expressed readiness to "address common security challenges." Strengthening Economic Ties Economic cooperation featured prominently on the agenda. Since 2020, trade between Uzbekistan and the EU has doubled, now exceeding €6 billion. Uzbek exports to the EU have quadrupled, and the number of joint ventures has surpassed a thousand. European investment projects in Uzbekistan, meanwhile, are now valued at over €30 billion. A key development was the agreement to open a regional office of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Tashkent. Established in 1958, the EIB is the EU’s primary financial institution, and its new office is expected to attract greater investment in green energy, modern infrastructure, and digitalization. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also deepened its engagement in Uzbekistan, investing over €5 billion to date. “We must work together to simplify trade procedures and ensure that Central Asian products gain greater access to European markets. Only through joint efforts can we build a strong and resilient economic partnership,” Mirziyoyev told Euronews. "Over the past seven years, the trade turnover between Central Asian countries and the EU has quadrupled, amounting to 54 billion euros... The signing of the Samarkand Declaration will reflect the common aspiration of the parties to establish a strategic partnership and lay the foundation for deepening ties between our regions." During the summit, Mirziyoyev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa. Discussions focused on trade, investment, green energy, and digital development, with the EU’s "Global Gateway” strategy, a counterpart to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a central topic. The initiative is seeking to enhance global infrastructure and connectivity while promoting sustainability and transparency. “The EU and Central Asia are becoming closer partners, and this summit marks the beginning of a new phase in our cooperation,” von der Leyen stated. An Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Uzbekistan and the EU is also under negotiation. Regional Dialogue Among Central Asian Leaders The Summit also offered a platform for Central Asian heads of state to hold bilateral discussions. Mirziyoyev met with his counterparts from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Talks centered on increasing trade, improving border security, and advancing major infrastructure projects. A recent landmark border agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan was lauded as a breakthrough. Uzbekistan...