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Unpacking the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Central Asia

Trade analysts across Central Asia generally agree that the immediate impact of the United States' tariff policy on the export dynamics of their nations will likely be minimal, as observed in past experiences, except for Kazakhstan. However, there is a palpable concern regarding potential unforeseen consequences arising from a broader global trade conflict. Notably, the timing of the Trump administration's announcement regarding global tariffs on imports coincides with a period when Central Asian countries are actively working to enhance their regional trade relationships. This new tariff policy raises significant doubts about the authenticity of recent U.S. efforts to promote increased trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals coming from Washington may lead Central Asian leaders to re-evaluate their current trade partnerships, especially as they consider the benefits of strengthening ties with China and Russia against the attractiveness of expanding commerce with the United States. Similarly, the European Union may find an opportunity to improve its position, while India could leverage the Chabahar route (a multi-modal transportation route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially Central Asia and Europe). It is worth noting that the market is primarily situated in Asia, and this alternative could have adverse long-term effects on the United States. Kazakhstan, acknowledged as the United States’ largest trading partner in Central Asia, is poised to face significant repercussions from introducing new tariffs set at 27%. In 2024, trade relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan reached an impressive total of $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in imports from Kazakhstan to the U.S. However, a statement from the Kazakh Trade Ministry indicates that exports to the U.S. primarily consist of crude oil, uranium, silver, and other raw materials, all exempt from these tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported only $95.2 million worth of goods, which will now incur surcharges – a relatively modest figure compared to the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4 billion. Trade analysts suggest that Kazakhstan has little cause for concern, viewing this situation more as a psychological impact than a serious economic threat. Resource-driven Central Asian economies, such as Kazakhstan, may even find enhanced opportunities in the expanding Asian market. Trade dynamics in Central Asia reveal a complex landscape, especially concerning the United States. In 2024, Uzbekistan managed to export a modest $42.4 million worth of goods to the US, a small fraction considering its total foreign trade turnover, which reached an impressive $66 billion for that year. This stark contrast highlights the limited engagement of Uzbekistan in the American market. With its total trade turnover of $16 billion in 2024, Kyrgyzstan similarly struggled with exports to the US, which amounted to merely $16.7 million. This reflects a broader trend where Central Asian economies exhibit low volume exports to the US, suggesting significant barriers or challenges in establishing a foothold in this lucrative market. Tajikistan's economic performance presented an even more sobering picture. Recording a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion, the country achieved only $4.6 million...

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Central Asia Launches Joint Initiative to Eliminate Tuberculosis by 2030

All five Central Asian nations have launched a regional campaign titled “Central Asia Free of Tuberculosis” with the ambitious goal of eliminating tuberculosis (TB), including drug-resistant strains, across the region by 2030, according to Turkmenportal. The initiative is led by the WHO Regional Office for Europe and supported by international health organizations. Health ministers and senior officials from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan convened in Astana to formally launch the campaign and sign a joint declaration. The agreement outlines commitments to work closely with the World Health Organization (WHO), the Stop TB Partnership, the Global Fund, civil society organizations, and other partners. Over the past decade, the five countries have made significant strides in combating TB through the introduction of new treatments and improved disease surveillance systems. The new initiative aims to accelerate these efforts toward total eradication. Key Objectives of the Initiative Include: Testing Coverage: Ensure that at least 95% of all new and recurrent TB cases are diagnosed using rapid WHO-recommended diagnostic tools, which are already in place across the region. Treatment Expansion: Broaden access to shorter, injection-free treatments for drug-resistant TB, which have demonstrated success rates of over 85%. Vaccine Preparedness: Prepare national health systems for the rollout of new TB vaccines once they become available. Primary Healthcare Integration: Incorporate TB diagnosis and treatment into each country’s primary healthcare system, with support from WHO’s Primary Health Care Centre in Almaty. WHO Regional Director Dr. Hans Kluge commended the political leadership demonstrated by the Central Asian governments. He emphasized that the region is now closer than ever to achieving TB elimination but must sustain its commitment through continued investments and stigma-reduction efforts to ensure equitable access to care. The regional strategy is expected to yield significant results by 2027 and will serve as a framework for monitoring and accelerating progress toward TB elimination in Central Asia.

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A Historic Gathering: The First Central Asia-European Union Summit in Samarkand

Excitement is building in Samarkand as it gears up to host the inaugural Central Asia-European Union Summit. This landmark event promises to pave the way for significant negotiations and collaboration, bringing together leaders and representatives from both regions. With a rich cultural backdrop and a vibrant atmosphere, Samarkand is poised to play a crucial role in shaping the future of partnerships and cooperation between Central Asia and the European Union. In recent weeks, Uzbekistan has experienced notable advancements in its foreign policy, signaling a proactive approach to international collaboration. A highlighted event was the fruitful engagement between Uzbekistan's head of state and Kaja Kallas, the High-level Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Additionally, a delegation led by Josef Sikela, the European Union Commissioner for International Cooperation, participated in discussions to foster deeper ties. A significant milestone on the horizon is the inaugural Central Asia-European Union summit, set to unfold in the historic city of Samarkand on April 3-4. During a pivotal meeting on March 27 with Kallas, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev meticulously explored the preparations for this groundbreaking summit, which has captured global attention due to its potential to reshape regional dynamics. The leaders engaged in a rich exchange of ideas focused on bolstering practical cooperation between their regions and planning future collaborative events that could further strengthen these ties. The significance of fostering mutually beneficial cooperation between the two regions in trade and logistics was emphasized during the meeting. This includes harnessing the potential of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, advancing digitalization, promoting green energy, addressing ecological concerns, modernizing infrastructure, and other priority areas. The introduction of effective mechanisms for implementing initiatives and projects in these fields was also highlighted. Participants exchanged views on enhancing Uzbekistan's relations with European Union organizations, discussing adopting a new agreement for enhanced partnership and cooperation and Uzbekistan's accession to the World Trade Organization. Current international and regional policy issues were also addressed. Additionally, on March 18, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with a delegation led by Josef Sikela, the European Union Commissioner for International Cooperation. This meeting discussed critical matters regarding further developing multifaceted relations between Uzbekistan and the European Union. Moreover, plans for organizing the inaugural "Central Asia - EU" summit and the Climate Forum in Samarkand were considered. In recent years, bilateral cooperation with the European Union has accelerated across political, trade, economic, investment, and cultural-humanitarian spheres, presenting extensive opportunities for the continued expansion of these ties. A new Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Uzbekistan and the European Union is anticipated to be signed soon. Both parties have expressed a keen interest in promoting joint projects and programs across transport and logistics, energy, digitalization, agriculture, water management, and other key areas. Kallas conveyed warm greetings and best wishes on behalf of key EU figures, including António Costa, the President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission. The discussions underscored the necessity of cultivating mutually beneficial cooperation across various sectors, including...

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Forced and Child Labor Persist in Turkmen Cotton Harvest, UN Experts Say

The International Labour Organization (ILO), a United Nations agency focused on labor rights, has confirmed cases of forced labor involving public sector employees and children during Turkmenistan’s 2024 cotton harvest, despite a formal government ban introduced in July of that year. Public Sector Employees and Children Sent to the Fields According to the ILO’s findings, employees of state institutions, including kindergartens, schools, and hospitals, were mobilized for cotton picking alongside children. These violations occurred even after the official prohibition on such practices was enacted. During a visit to Turkmenistan in autumn 2024, ILO experts found that around 20% of surveyed farmers admitted to employing public sector workers. This included both technical staff, such as cleaners, and professionals like nurses, doctors, and educators. Over one-third of public sector employees reported facing pressure from management to participate in the harvest, with threats of wage cuts or dismissal. The ILO categorized these practices as a form of “psychological coercion.” Minors in the Fields, Women Dominate the Labor Force Despite the legal ban on child labor, 14% of surveyed government workers and 11% of farmers confirmed the involvement of minors in cotton picking. The report links this to poor socio-economic conditions in rural areas, low-income levels, unemployment, and prevailing cultural expectations. Women accounted for over 90% of all cotton pickers in 2024. The average working day lasted 8.5 hours, often extending beyond that. Approximately 80% of pickers had no written employment contracts, exposing them to potential exploitation. Many reported being forced to accept whatever terms their employers offered. While in 2023 only 12% of pickers earned more than one Turkmen manat per kilogram of cotton, this figure rose to over 70% in 2024. Nevertheless, experts noted that pay remained unstable, with widespread delays and opaque compensation practices. Obstacles for Observers, Risk of Sanctions The ILO conducted monitoring at 472 cotton plantations across Turkmenistan, interviewing 1,762 pickers, 472 farmers, and 2,500 public officials. However, the report notes that in some instances, officials and farmers attempted to obstruct monitoring efforts, interfering with observers and misrepresenting facts. While the ILO acknowledged government efforts to ban child labor and reduce coercion, it warned that the absence of effective oversight mechanisms continues to enable violations. “Risks remain, especially when there are threats of dismissal or fines for refusing to go into the field,” the report states. International Repercussions Loom Under newly adopted European Union regulations banning imports of goods produced using forced labor, Turkmen cotton exports could face restrictions. In November 2024, EU officials discussed a potential ban on imports of Turkmen cotton for this reason. The ILO report underscores that sustainable reform is only achievable through transparent oversight, full respect for human rights, and the complete elimination of coercive labor practices for both adults and children.

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EU’s Kaja Kallas: Russia Must Not Use Central Asia to Bypass Sanctions

European Union sanctions against Russia are affecting Central Asian economies, but the EU remains determined to prevent the region from being used to circumvent those measures. This was emphasized by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas during the 20th EU-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting held in Turkmenistan's capital, Ashgabat. “The EU has introduced 16 sanctions packages to weaken Russia’s military machine, and we are working on the 17th,” Kallas stated. “I understand these sanctions impact your economy, but we all want this war to end. Russian companies must not use Central Asia to bypass these restrictions.” The ministerial meeting on March 27 brought together the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Discussions centered on preparations for the upcoming EU-Central Asia Summit, scheduled for April 2025 in Samarkand. Strengthening U.S.-Uzbekistan Ties In a parallel development, U.S.-Uzbekistan relations are showing signs of deeper engagement. On March 26, Ambassador Furkat Sidikov hosted a Congressional Breakfast with U.S. Representative Trent Kelly, focused on trade and investment opportunities. Congressman Kelly praised Uzbekistan’s ongoing reforms and expressed support for lifting the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, a Cold War-era restriction on trade. A Shift in U.S. Strategy Toward Kazakhstan Meanwhile, experts are calling for a more nuanced U.S. approach to Kazakhstan. Dr. Robert M. Cutler, Times of Central Asia correspondent, noted that Kazakhstan’s close ties with Russia and China stem from geopolitical necessity rather than ideological alignment. He urged Washington to maintain consistent engagement with Kazakhstan and prioritize economic and strategic cooperation over political pressure.

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Power Shifts in Central Asia: The Unpredictable Path of Leadership

European Union Commissioner for International Partnerships Josef Sikela has concluded his tour of Central Asia, a visit conducted against the backdrop of global geopolitical turbulence. Unlike previous engagements, where European officials often criticized the region’s leadership for a lack of democratic progress, Sikela refrained from making demands on local governments. Historically, Europe has accused Central Asian states of authoritarianism and the entrenchment of long-serving leaders. However, the idea that power is uniquely permanent in the region is increasingly questioned. Critics point to Western examples, such as Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure as Germany’s chancellor, and alleged electoral manipulation within the EU, such as in Romania, where elections were annulled after an undesired candidate’s victory. Meanwhile, in Central Asia, even presidents once considered “eternal” have eventually left office, sometimes peacefully, sometimes under turbulent conditions. Kyrgyzstan: The Unpredictable Outlier Kyrgyzstan is often described as a "democratic exception" within Central Asia, yet its history is marked by political instability and frequent leadership changes, arguably more so than in many of the world’s most conflict-prone regions. The country’s first president, Askar Akayev, held power from 1990 to 2005. Though re-elected three times, his rule ended in March 2005 when protests erupted over parliamentary election results that heavily favored pro-government candidates. Demonstrators stormed the Government House in Bishkek, prompting Akayev to flee. Reports, though unverified, claimed he was smuggled out wrapped in a carpet. Following Akayev’s ouster, Kurmanbek Bakiyev took power, but his rule ended in 2010 after violent unrest. His downfall was allegedly facilitated by Kazakhstan’s intelligence services, and he later found political asylum in Belarus under President Alexander Lukashenko. Since Bakiyev’s departure, Kyrgyzstan has continued to experience political turbulence. Presidents Almazbek Atambayev (2010-2017) and Sooronbai Jeenbekov (2017-2020) both left office under pressure. Atambayev’s tenure saw a diplomatic fallout with Kazakhstan, while Jeenbekov resigned in 2020 amid protests over parliamentary elections. His successor, Sadyr Japarov, remains in office, but whether he will complete his term is an open question. Uzbekistan: Reform Within Limits Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s first post-Soviet leader, ruled for over 26 years before his death in 2016. While he maintained a strictly centralized government, his tenure was also marked by violent crackdowns, most notably the Andijan uprising in 2005, which resulted in a Western diplomatic fallout. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has introduced some reforms, loosening restrictions on civil liberties and the economy. However, the fundamental structure of state control remains intact, with opposition movements still tightly monitored. Kazakhstan: From Nazarbayev to Tokayev Kazakhstan’s transition from Nursultan Nazarbayev to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is often described as managed succession rather than a genuine power shift. Nazarbayev, who led Kazakhstan for nearly three decades, officially stepped down in 2019, yet retained significant influence until the January 2022 unrest, which forced him to relinquish much of his remaining power. These protests, initially sparked by fuel price hikes, rapidly escalated into anti-government riots. While official accounts describe the unrest as an attempted coup orchestrated by figures within Nazarbayev’s inner circle, critics suggest Tokayev used the crisis to consolidate power....