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Afghanistan

From Electricity to Fuel, Central Asia is Doing More Business with Afghanistan

Central Asia is becoming even more important to Afghanistan. After the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, most of the countries of Central Asia established a dialogue with its leadership that focused on business potential, backed up by security promises. This understanding is more important than ever to the Taliban government, as events along Afghanistan’s eastern and western borders have left Central Asia as the only reliable import-export route for Afghanistan at the moment. Booming Trade At the start of March, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce released figures for 2025 that showed trade with Central Asia increased from $1.79 billion in 2024 to $2.4 billion in 2025. While most of the trade is exports from Central Asia to Afghanistan, reports mentioned that Afghan exports to Central Asia -- mostly to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan -- increased by 77 percent, from $122 million in 2024 to $216 million in 2025. A closer look shows that Uzbekistan-Afghanistan trade in 2025 totaled some $1.6 billion. A full figure for Kazakh-Afghan trade in 2025 is not yet available. However, trade between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan amounted to some $525.2 million in 2024. Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhamangarin said at a Kazakh-Afghan business forum in Kazakhstan’s southern city of Shymkent in October 2025 that bilateral trade in the first eight months of 2025 had reached some $335.9 million. These figures are certain to have grown. Fresh agreements worth more than $360 million were signed on the sidelines of the Kazakh-Afghan business forum. On March 6, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree ratifying the Preferential Trade Agreement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Trade totals for Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan with Afghanistan are more modest, but, as in the cases of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are set to grow. Kyrgyz-Afghan trade for the 12 months to March 2025 came to some $66 million, but, during a Kyrgyz-Afghan business conference in Kabul commercial contracts worth some $157 million were signed. There are no figures for Turkmen-Afghan trade in 2025, but Turkmen electricity exports to Afghanistan are increasing. Turkmenistan is also preparing to export natural gas to Afghanistan. A natural gas pipeline is slowly being constructed from the Turkmen border to the western Afghan city of Herat, which could start operation as soon as 2027. Tajikistan was the lone Central Asian country to shun contact with the Taliban after they returned to power. Representatives of the previous government of Ashraf Ghani continue to occupy the Afghan embassy in Dushanbe. Tajik and Taliban authorities finally established contacts only in late 2024 but even to this day the two sides rarely meet face-to-face. However, Tajik-Afghan trade in 2025 still totaled some $120 million. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce noted that most of Central Asia’s exports to Afghanistan are electricity, fuel products, and natural gas. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan export electricity to Afghanistan via transmission lines that were built during the 20 years the Taliban were out of power. Some 80 percent of Afghanistan’s electricity is imported, and most of that (75-80 percent) comes...

Environment

“Acid clouds” from Iran? Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Weather Agencies Say There is No Threat to Central Asia

Social media has been flooded with claims that a toxic cloud could drift from Iran toward Central Asia following strikes on oil facilities. However, the meteorological services of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan say those fears are not supported by scientific data. In recent days, posts online have warned of so-called “acid clouds” allegedly forming over Iran after attacks on oil depots and other energy infrastructure. Some of these posts claimed the pollution could be carried by atmospheric currents toward Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and China. Others cited reports of “black rain” in Tehran and elevated concentrations of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and soot. Iranian authorities and international reporting have documented severe local air pollution risks in and around Tehran after the strikes. The Iranian Red Crescent Society warned residents that rainfall following the explosions could be acidic and hazardous to health. Experts said the pollution could irritate the skin, eyes, and lungs and contaminate soil and water near the affected areas. Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan’s national weather service, said reports that “acid clouds” from Iran could reach Central Asia are not confirmed by scientific data or observation results. The agency explained that acid precipitation typically forms near the source of emissions and that the concentration of pollutants decreases significantly over long distances due to natural atmospheric processes. Monitoring data, it said, show no signs of such pollution moving toward Kazakhstan or other Central Asian countries. Uzbekistan’s hydrometeorological service, Uzhydromet, expressed a similar position. It said information circulating on social media about “acid clouds” reaching Central Asian countries has no scientific basis. According to the agency, dangerous concentrations of acid precipitation thousands of kilometres from the source are practically impossible, and current observations show no threat to Uzbekistan or neighbouring states. Experts note that large fires at oil facilities can release substantial amounts of harmful pollutants into the atmosphere. However, such risks are primarily local or regional near the source. By the time emissions travel very long distances, atmospheric dispersion and deposition typically reduce concentrations sharply. As a result, the health concerns reported in Tehran do not support claims of a toxic cloud threatening Central Asia. Both Kazhydromet and Uzhydromet urged the public and media outlets to rely on official information and avoid spreading unverified reports.

Consumer Prices

Prices in Turkmenistan Rise Sharply Due to the Situation in the Middle East

Military activity in neighboring Iran has begun to directly affect Turkmenistan’s economy. Disruptions to supplies from a key trading partner have triggered a sharp increase in prices for food, household chemicals, building materials, and cigarettes. According to retailers, this may only be the beginning as existing stocks are running low and prices continue to climb. Despite having domestic production, Turkmenistan remains heavily dependent on imports from Iran, particularly for food products, household chemicals, and construction materials. The conflict in Iran has disrupted established logistics routes, causing prices for several categories of goods to rise significantly across Turkmenistan. Vegetables and citrus fruits have seen some of the steepest increases. Prices for potatoes and cucumbers have risen by three to three-and-a-half times, while citrus fruits have become about 50% more expensive. Cigarette prices have already increased by roughly 40%, and traders warn that further rises are likely. At the end of February, a kilogram of potatoes imported from Iran cost between $1.45 and $1.74 in Ashgabat. The price has now risen to $4.93 per kilogram. A similar trend has been observed for cucumbers, whose price increased from $2.32 to $4.93 per kilogram. Citrus fruits have become even more expensive. Oranges have risen in price from $2.61 to $5.22 per kilogram, while mandarins have increased from $3.48 to $6.38. Residents of Turkmenistan are also facing higher prices for household chemicals. Although the increase has not yet been as dramatic, retailers say the upward trend is clear. Tobacco products have also risen significantly in price, with cigarettes increasing by an average of about 35%. The construction sector has also been affected. Prices for cement, wood, metal, and other building materials have increased by around 40%. These increases are linked to disruptions in established supply routes. Some construction materials were previously imported from the United Arab Emirates via Iran. Businesses are now being forced to search for alternative logistics routes, including through Georgia and Azerbaijan, which significantly increases transportation costs. On March 4, customs regulation issues were discussed at a meeting of Turkmenistan’s Security Council. However, according to a report by the state news agency TDH, the head of the State Customs Service, Maksat Khudaygulyev, did not address the current supply disruptions. His remarks focused on the planned development of the agency. Price increases linked to events in Iran are not new for Turkmenistan. A similar situation was observed in the summer during the 12-day war. Supply problems also emerged in the fall of 2024, when Iran temporarily closed its border. During that period, vegetable oil prices increased significantly and shortages were reported.

Natural Gas

Turkmen Natural Gas Could Supplement Azeri Supplies to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor

Turkmenistan views the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project as one of the most important directions for diversifying its energy exports and strengthening energy security on the European continent, Turkmenistan’s former president Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov said in an interview with the Al Arabiya television channel during his visit to the United States in February, according to official Turkmen media. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline is a proposed infrastructure project designed to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea, where it could connect to the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). The SGC is intended to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and diversify the continent’s energy supplies by bringing natural gas from the Caspian region to European markets. Its primary supply source is Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field in the Caspian Sea. The corridor stretches from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Türkiye to Greece, Albania, and Italy. Turkmenistan is widely viewed as a potential additional supplier for the SGC, which could become increasingly important if Azerbaijani gas alone proves insufficient to meet rising European demand. Berdymuhamedov said that progress on the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline requires resolving international legal issues, particularly those related to the delimitation of the Caspian seabed. A Turkmen-Azerbaijani working commission has been established for this purpose. “We hope that its work will yield significant practical results,” he said. Berdymuhamedov also emphasized Turkmenistan’s large hydrocarbon resources, noting that the country ranks fourth globally in proven natural gas reserves. “For some time in the past, the bulk of Turkmen natural gas exports went to Russia, which received up to 40 billion cubic meters per year. Currently, China is our main gas buyer, with supply volumes at roughly the same level,” Berdymuhamedov said. He added that Turkmenistan’s policy of diversification allows the country to supply gas within the region through swap arrangements involving Iran and Azerbaijan, as well as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other neighboring states. Turkey is also considered a key link for potential Turkmen gas exports to Europe. Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay previously said that, in cooperation with Azerbaijan, Turkmen natural gas could be transported through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which runs across Türkiye and forms the central segment of the Southern Gas Corridor. Oktay expressed confidence that negotiations between Turkey's Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, the Turkish state energy company BOTAŞ, and Turkmenistan’s state-owned gas producer, Türkmengaz, could soon produce positive results. He also stated that Turkish state companies are ready to participate in the development of hydrocarbon resources at the jointly developed Turkmen-Azerbaijani Dostluk field in the Caspian Sea. Speaking at the 12th Ministerial Meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council in Baku on March 3, Zafer Demircan, Turkey's Deputy Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, highlighted the corridor’s strategic importance. “There is a strong common understanding of the crucial role of the Southern Gas Corridor in achieving long-term energy supply security,” Demircan said. “This valuable concept is evolving toward a Green Energy Corridor linking states in the Caucasus and Central Asia with Europe. Türkiye...

Iran

Evacuation Through Turkmenistan: Dozens of Foreigners Leave Iran as Assistance Conditions Vary

Amid the ongoing military conflict involving Iran, foreign nationals have begun leaving the country by land. One of the main evacuation routes has been through neighboring Turkmenistan, although the conditions for departure and the level of assistance provided to citizens of different countries have varied. Foreign citizens began leaving Iran after strikes were launched on its territory. With Iranian airspace closed, evacuation has only been possible by land. According to diplomatic sources in Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and South Korea, about 60 foreign nationals have already left Iran via Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Nurlan Sauranbayev, said that on March 2, 18 Kazakh citizens were successfully evacuated from the northern Iranian city of Gorgan. The closest available route was through the Turkmen border. According to the minister, Turkmen authorities granted permission for the group to cross the border, although the specific checkpoint used was not disclosed. Serakhs remains the main transit crossing in this direction, while other checkpoints remained closed until March 2. On the same day, a group of eight Russian citizens crossed the border through the Serakhs checkpoint. According to Igor Samoshkin, head of the consular department of the Russian Embassy, Turkmen officials met the arrivals at the border and arranged transportation to Ashgabat as well as hotel accommodation. Russian diplomats later assisted the group with further travel arrangements. On March 3, the group flew home on an S7 Airlines flight. On March 3, 13 citizens of Uzbekistan crossed the border in an organized manner through the same Serakhs checkpoint. According to the Dunyo news agency, they were met by Uzbek embassy staff in official vehicles. After the Gaudan-Bajgiran crossing opened, diplomats also began meeting their citizens there. However, the subsequent route taken by the Uzbek nationals was not specified. There are currently no direct flights between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and the distance from Serakhs to the nearest land crossing between the two countries, Farab-Alat, is about 460 kilometers. On the same day, a group of 23 South Korean citizens entered Turkmenistan. According to The Korea Times, they were accompanied by South Korean diplomats throughout their transit in the country before departing from Ashgabat on individual flights. Representatives of the South Korean embassy noted the prompt response of Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as assistance with immigration procedures, consular support, accommodation, and flight reservations. Foreign citizens require a visa to transit through Turkmenistan, and this requirement has not been completely waived even during the evacuation. As Russian diplomat Igor Samoshkin explained, those seeking to leave Iran through Turkmenistan must first contact their country’s embassy in Iran and submit documents for a visa. The diplomatic mission then sends a request to the Turkmen authorities, after which further coordination takes place between Ashgabat and the relevant embassies accredited in Turkmenistan. Turkmen authorities directly accompanied only the Russian citizens. For other foreign nationals, their respective diplomatic missions were responsible for organizing further travel arrangements. The reasons for the differences in the level of assistance have not been publicly explained. It...

CA5+UK

UK Expands Strategic Engagement in Central Asia Amid Growing Global Competition

The world’s largest economies have recently increased their focus on Central Asia. The United Kingdom, alongside the U.S., the European Union, and China, is seeking to strengthen partnerships in a region that was previously not among its top foreign policy priorities. Britain Replicates an Established Format Throughout the years of independence, Kazakhstan and its regional neighbors were often perceived as operating within Russia’s sphere of influence. The war in Ukraine and broader geopolitical shifts have altered international attitudes toward Central Asia. Major powers are now intensifying dialogue with the region, with particular emphasis on economic cooperation. At the end of February, foreign ministers met in London under the Central Asia-UK (CA5+1) format. Although this was the first meeting of its kind in the British capital, the format mirrors similar mechanisms already used by the U.S., the European Union, Russia, China, and Japan. Participants noted that the CA5+1 format has proven to be an effective mechanism for structured and substantive engagement with external partners. The regional agenda is addressed comprehensively, reflecting Central Asian priorities while creating additional opportunities to advance economic initiatives and implement joint projects. Particular attention has been paid to trade diversification, industrial cooperation, sustainable infrastructure development, and unlocking Central Asia’s potential in critical minerals and renewable energy. The meeting also covered economic growth prospects, key challenges facing Central Asian economies, and the expansion of trade and investment. Logistics was a central topic, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, widely known as the Middle Corridor. British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper emphasized the strategic importance of Central Asia as a dynamically developing region characterized by sustained economic growth, expanding regional cooperation, and a growing role in international affairs. According to the British participants, the region’s countries are pursuing a pragmatic approach, strengthening connectivity and expanding their participation in shaping a modern architecture of economic and political cooperation. Education and Finance Interest in British education continues to grow across all five Central Asian countries. Four branches of British universities are operating in Kazakhstan, and nearly 6,000 students have earned British degrees through the Bolashak international scholarship program. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have announced plans to establish international financial centers modeled on the Astana International Financial Centre in Kazakhstan. British Ambassador to Uzbekistan Timothy Smart said that work is underway to create an international financial center in Tashkent based on international arbitration standards. Like the Astana model, the new center will operate under English common law. British Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Nicholas Bowler highlighted London’s role in assisting with legislation for the International Dispute Resolution Center, which will operate under English law and be located in the Issyk-Kul region. Greater participation by Central Asian companies on the London Stock Exchange is also anticipated. Logistics and Resources British diplomats have placed particular emphasis on cooperation in critical minerals, a priority within the United Kingdom’s global strategy. Projects are underway across the region, accompanied by new agreements and industrial partnerships. Agreements have reportedly been reached between the Kazakh producer Zhezkazganredmet and the British...