Future Nostalgia: Alexander Ugay’s Parisian Debut at NIKA Projects
Have you ever had that feeling of “Future Nostalgia” - as Dua Lipa would put it – when looking at old sci-fi movies that were imagining a future that never came to pass? The fact that this future didn’t materialise might be as might be seen as both a blessing and a disappointment, as artist Alexander Ugay has us reflecting upon with his Parisian debut.
Born in Kazakhstan to a Korean family deported under Stalin’s regime, Ugay’s work is heavily inspired by his own experience and is layered with echoes of ancestral trauma, the faded promise of Soviet modernity, and the flickering ghost of a future once imagined but that never fully came to fruition.
A child of engineers and inventors, Ugay grew up among circuits and cyanotypes, and in his art, he uses materials such as 8mm film and VHS tape. With this vintage spirit, his body of work looks at the past to speak of the present, and posits a critique of the techno-utopianism of the Soviet 1970s, as much as today's AI-driven image culture.
In his new show, More than Dreams, Less than Things, at NIKA Projects in Paris, Ugay looks at the origins of image-making both literally and philosophically. Inspired by Ibn al-Haytham’s Book of Optics, the artist reanimates the ancient camera obscura, letting light seep through the book’s pages to birth abstract images: faded records of a presence.
The exhibition, which opened on March 16, explores the tension between technological progress and the way this can be disrupted by the power of imagination and poetry - eminently human things - by looking at the intersection of photography, technology, and diasporic memory.
His show, curated by Elena Sorokina, situates an emergence of Central Asian narratives coming more and more to the forefront of the international art and cultural world of Europe. Through the lens of Soviet futurism, Ugay explores a broader vision of seeing in an age where so much remains invisible.
TCA spoke with Ugay about the way he approaches his art, his sources, and how he conceives images not as finished objects but as processes — mutable, unstable, and deeply human.
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03_Alexander Ugay, More than Dreams, Less than Things. Courtesy of the artist[/caption]
TCA: Where does the title for your new show, More than Dreams, Less than Things, come from?
The title came about after reading Henri Bergson's book, Matter and Memory. I really liked the idea that an image is not only the relationship between absence and presence but also intensity and density. This idea made up for my dissatisfaction with the notion of resolution in photography.
The title, in this case, is not just a definition of the image but a key to understanding its substantive basis. The image is the surface of the ‘grand contract’ between necessity and freedom, memory and matter, entropy and being.
TCA: In More than Dreams, Less than Things, you use the camera obscura technique. How does this historical process relate to your exploration of the materiality of images in this exhibition?
Light and the way of its optical focusing remain unchanged; in this sense, the camera obscura differs little from modern optical systems. What is important is the corpuscular-wave dualism, which, in the language of computer technology, allows light to be both hardware energy and software information at the same time.
It softens binary oppositions of virtual and material through transition to states of forcefields, intensities, and intuition. The camera obscura, in this case, is not only a technical device but a field of tension. As hardware, it transforms energy into information. As software, the camera forms a certain quality of information, a unique ratio of the figurative, abstract, and symbolic.
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Alexander Ugay. Courtesy of the artist[/caption]
TCA: Can you trace the beginning of your interest in antiquated futuristic machines, which you find mostly depicted in scientific magazines from the 1970s-80s?
The interest arose most naturally [as] my father was an engineer and inventor. From early childhood, I spent time in his workshop, where there were many interesting objects and constructions in addition to magazines.
It should be noted that the pretensions and intents were not nostalgic or futuristic. Most of the materials and technology were available in one way or another. All things invented or made were paired with practical applications and actually used in everyday life.
It seems to me that it was in that decade that ideology locked people into an unsettling present where the traumatic, uncomfortable past was pushed to the margins of history, and the future was determined by the inevitability of communism. Therefore, the phenomenon of mass interest in invention at that time can be seen as a symptom, as a reaction to the impossibility of working through the past and the lack of alternative spaces for the future.
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Alexander Ugay, More than Dreams, Less than Things. Courtesy of the artist[/caption]
TCA: The exhibition draws on Ibn al-Haytham’s Book of Optics. How did this text inform your approach to combining light, geometry, and abstract imagery in your work?
Alhazen combined the extra-missionary concept of vision (the eye emits visual rays that probe reality) proposed by Euclid with the intra-missionary concept (reality is grasped by the eye through projection on the retina), thus creating the modern theory of vision. If the act of perception/interpretation changes reality itself, then indexical tactility and mimetic grasping is a process of computability and rendering.
Reality then appears as a kind of interface or informational surface of an inaccessible depth.
The Book of Optics established clarity, sharpness, and similarity as the principles that have guided the development of optics and optical media over the last thousand years. All these properties certainly remain relevant in our time, but often not as criteria of truth, but of computability.
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Alexander Ugay. Book of Optics. Courtesy of NIKA Project Space[/caption]
TCA: In your new works, you explore both the work of German theoretician Heisenberg – especially his uncertainty principle - and psychoanalyst Lacan’s theory of the signifier. How do these converge in your photographic practice?
According to the uncertainty principle, it is impossible to measure the position of a particle and its momentum at the same time. Similarly, in psychoanalysis, the object of desire (particle) never coincides with the desire itself (impulse).
Continuing the line of structural similarity, we can say that the unconscious, phantasm, thinking itself have a wave nature while the act of observation, interpretation or choice collapses all potentialities into one single possible option.
The photographic image is a collapsing of the wave function, given the fact that radical improvements in resolution, light sensitivity, and processing algorithms are ‘displacing’ the wave nature from optical media.
In this new project, I’m interested in photography not as a concept of a window or a mirror to memory but as a possible indication of a connection with the information lost after collapse.
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Alexander Ugay. Portrait, courtesy of the artist[/caption]
TCA: The underpinning of the exhibition is heavily charged theoretically, but does your Korean-Kazakh background directly influence your approach to art as a tool for reflecting diasporic memory?
The 1937 deportation of Koreans from the Far East to Central Asia divided time into history and memory, while the collapse of the USSR split memory into accusatory and justificatory.
Since all key assembly points, such as language, tradition, land, and ideology have been alienated or lost, the diasporic memory of the post-Soviet is ambivalent about national identity. It interrupts the silence of memory, usually not as a voice of the lost but as a defensive reaction in the form of resentment or imperial consciousness.
In my practice, I often turn to post-memory, reinvention, and generation. This allows the lost to gain matter and the material to peel off perpendicular to the arrow of time. Materiality acts as a kind of conduit/invention. The silence of memory passes into the silence of the object, which releases images that lead us along the path of unknown return.
Alexander Ugay’s More than Dreams, Less than Things solo exhibition, curated by Elena Sorokina, will be on display at NIKA’s Paris space until May 17, 2025.
Balancing Secularism and Belief: Central Asia Grapples with Rising Islamization
Although the Central Asian republics officially uphold secular governance, they may be experiencing a subtle, creeping Islamization beneath the surface. While state-controlled media across the region maintain that religious movements are well-managed, occasional incidents suggest a growing divergence between official narratives and societal realities.
One such incident recently drew attention in Kazakhstan, where a photo circulated online showing girls in burkas holding a Kazakh flag inscribed with Arabic script. The image prompted Mazhilis Deputy Yermurat Bapi to call on the government to intensify efforts against radical religious movements.
“Our attention was drawn to the fact that the inscriptions on the flag in Arabic script were produced with a special printing tool. This is not just hooliganism or inappropriate behavior. It is a direct challenge to our society, our statehood, and our national traditions,” Bapi said.
Citing "national interests, traditions, and culture," Bapi has previously campaigned for a ban on religious clothing, specifically hijabs and niqabs, in public places.
On social media, proponents of a Central Asian caliphate have railed against national traditions, denouncing Nauryz, criticizing local costumes and instruments, and rejecting pre-Islamic cultural heritage.
Since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office in 2016, Uzbekistan has cautiously liberalized its religious policy. However, strict state control persists. Imams must be approved by the Muftiate, unregistered religious groups are banned, and mosque inspections are routine. The state endorses the Hanafi madhhab as the “national form of Islam” and recognizes Naqshbandi Sufism as part of its cultural heritage. Salafi and extremist movements are actively suppressed, and while former “black lists” of suspected extremists are being revised, some religious prisoners are being rehabilitated. Islamic education is expanding through madrasas, Islamic colleges, and the Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan has pursued an aggressive campaign to secularize public life. The Islamic Renaissance Party, once a legal political force, was banned in 2015 as “extremist.” The state restricts youth access to mosques, prohibits the hijab in schools and public offices, and has shuttered over 1,500 mosques since 2011. As previously reported by TCA, a 2024 law bans “foreign clothing” - widely interpreted as targeting Arabic attire, including the hijab - to promote national dress. Islam is framed as a cultural element within state ideology, with the Committee on Religious Affairs closely monitoring clerics.
Kyrgyzstan is widely viewed as the most religiously open state in the region. Post-Soviet liberalization allowed Islam to grow organically, with little initial oversight. Today, numerous Islamic groups, including Salafis, operate within the country. Rural communities and youth increasingly identify with Islam. Private madrasas and Islamic NGOs are flourishing, and hijab adoption is on the rise. Though the government has begun tightening oversight following incidents of radicalization, Salafi influence continues to grow. By 2023, there were 130 Islamic educational institutions, including 34 madrasas for girls.
In Turkmenistan, one of the world’s most closed societies, religious freedom is strictly curtailed. All religious activity is monitored, and Islamic institutions are intertwined with nationalist and presidential cult rhetoric, often referred to as “Turkmen Islam.” Unregulated Islamic movements and foreign affiliations are prohibited. State-sanctioned mosques are part of a highly controlled religious landscape.
Kazakhstan’s constitution guarantees religious freedom, yet Islam is tightly managed through the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kazakhstan (DUMK). Interest in Islam is surging, particularly among youth and in southern regions such as Turkestan and Zhambyl. The number of mosques and Hajj pilgrims continues to climb. Although officially secular, signs of creeping Islamization are emerging. Analysts point to the appointment of religiously affiliated individuals, often educated in Islamic institutions abroad or tied to religious NGOs, into governmental roles. Some suggest an unspoken “quota” system exists to appease devout constituencies.
While the state promotes “traditional” Hanafi Islam, this narrative may mask the influence of soft political Islam. In the 2000s, religious graduates from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan began occupying influential roles in NGOs and religious foundations with access to public funding. State-led initiatives such as Rukhani Zhangyru (Spiritual Renewal) infuse Islamic values into national development projects, reinforcing Islam as a moral pillar of society.
Prominent elites have also played a role. Convicted in September 2022 for grand theft, Kairat Satybaldyuly, nephew of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been linked to the Salafi movement, reportedly funding mosques and supporting related causes. In 2023, MP Yermurat Bapi accused Satybaldyuly of promoting Wahhabism with Nazarbayev’s tacit approval, a claim Satybaldyuly denied, stating his efforts were focused on Islamic development with his uncle’s blessing. The Salafi movement was reportedly among the forces destabilizing Kazakhstan during the January 2022 unrest, when national stability was seriously threatened.
The question of Islamist penetration into the political and civic fabric of Central Asian states remains unresolved. While authorities project an image of controlled secularism, the growing influence of religious ideology, both overt and subtle, calls for deeper scrutiny, particularly in Kazakhstan’s evolving landscape.
Why Europe Is Betting Big on Kazakhstan’s Future
On April 3, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Samarkand, ahead of the Central Asia–European Union summit. Although the meeting was brief, it came at a key moment, bringing into focus a set of shared economic and technological priorities that both sides increasingly treat as strategic. Tokayev made his position plain: Kazakhstan is looking to push forward in four core areas of cooperation with the EU: energy, industrial infrastructure, transport and logistics, and digital technology. Each of these lines up with the country’s broader goals for economic modernization. The two leaders also acknowledged recent steps toward a simplified EU visa regime for Kazakhstani nationals, which would ease movement for businesses and professionals in both directions. The meeting itself fits into a growing pattern. It builds on the first five-country Central Asia–EU leaders’ summit held in Astana back in October 2022. That gathering marked a turning point, putting the EU’s regional engagement on firmer institutional footing. It went beyond symbolic gestures and aimed at unlocking concrete investment opportunities. Since then, the EU has moved quickly to back up its commitments with financial and logistical support. Much of this has flowed through the Global Gateway initiative, a flagship program designed to channel European investment into infrastructure projects in developing and strategically situated economies. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has had a visible role in this process, running studies and financing projects across the transport, energy, and trade connectivity sectors. One EBRD-backed report, published in 2023, offered a striking projection: around €18.5 billion would be needed to scale container transport between the EU and Central Asia by a factor of eight. The goal was to go from fewer than 100,000 TEUs per year to roughly 865,000 by 2040. In response, the EU and the EBRD convened an Investors' Forum in early 2024, bringing in more than €10 billion in early-stage pledges. A second forum is now scheduled for 2025, with new focus areas, including mining, supply chains, and processing industries. During the Samarkand discussion, von der Leyen underlined the strategic significance of the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). This project has been gaining traction in EU planning circles as an alternative to routes running through Russia or the Gulf. The corridor promises not only economic returns but greater resilience in east–west supply chains. Kazakhstan, by geography and by political posture, is positioned at the center of this shift. Its participation is not just beneficial but also structurally important. The timing of the meeting was also notable. Just a day earlier, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Industry and Construction had announced a major find: a substantial deposit of rare earth elements at the Kuirektykol site. State-supported geological teams working in that region reported an estimated one million tons of potential material. Preliminary surveys from two zones, Irgiz and Dos 2, showed mineral content exceeding 0.1%, with some samples reaching as high as 0.25%. This level is a strong signal for commercial viability and will likely draw the attention of investors and technology firms looking to diversify sourcing. Von der Leyen welcomed the news, emphasizing that rare earths have become critical to Europe’s industrial and strategic planning. The EU has relied heavily on imports from China, especially for components used in renewable-energy technologies, defense, and digital devices. Shifting to a broader base of suppliers has become a matter of long-term stability. Kazakhstan, in that context, offers more than geology. It also offers predictability. Unlike some other countries with natural resource wealth, it provides legal consistency and relative political continuity. Tokayev’s government has established itself as being receptive to international investment, building the kind of regulatory frameworks that give long-term investors some sense of assurance. The combination of resources plus reliability is a relatively rare one in today’s geopolitical environment. The Kazakhstan-EU relationship is also grounded institutionally. The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) provides a legal structure for everything from trade norms to environmental standards. Since the EPCA came into force in 2020, the EU has edged out China, Russia, and the U.S. to become Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner. Over the past two years, Kazakhstan has increased its integration into EU satellite and communications networks, supporting a range of applications from agricultural monitoring to climate data to communications security. Looking ahead, momentum seems to be building. EU funding in Central Asia as a whole is expected to pass €20 billion by the end of 2025, including priorities for environmental standards, joint ventures, and local capacity-building. A post-summer Economic Forum is in the works, and the next Investors Forum — this time focused more on raw materials and supply chain development — is planned for the fall. In parallel, the C5+EU format will continue to evolve, with think tanks, regional experts, and business leaders feeding into its policy architecture. The Tokayev–von der Leyen meeting reaffirmed the partnership’s direction. What remains is implementation across the issue-areas of infrastructure, technology, resources, and the legal frameworks that tie them together. President Tokayev has consistently framed the EU as a long-term partner for Kazakhstan’s development. From the European side, Kazakhstan is increasingly seen as a stable anchor in a region where volatility is a persistent risk. The Samarkand meeting, though modest in scale, allowed the two sides an opportunity to articulate together their agreement that their partnership is continuing to consolidate itself in a constructive manner.
Samarkand Declaration Paves the Way for a Stronger Central Asia–EU Partnership
The inaugural Central Asia-European Union Summit, held in Samarkand on April 3-4, marked a significant milestone in strengthening ties between the two regions. According to Sherzod Asadov, press secretary to Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the summit's most significant outcome is the adoption of the Samarkand Declaration, which is expected to provide strong momentum for expanding constructive dialogue and cooperation across all sectors.
In a statement, the EU reaffirmed its "commitment to deeper cooperation in an evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape [and] upgrade relations between the European Union and Central Asia to a strategic partnership." The EU declaration also committed the bloc to respect the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states within the framework of all international and regional fora" and expressed readiness to "address common security challenges."
Strengthening Economic Ties
Economic cooperation featured prominently on the agenda. Since 2020, trade between Uzbekistan and the EU has doubled, now exceeding €6 billion. Uzbek exports to the EU have quadrupled, and the number of joint ventures has surpassed a thousand. European investment projects in Uzbekistan, meanwhile, are now valued at over €30 billion.
A key development was the agreement to open a regional office of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Tashkent. Established in 1958, the EIB is the EU’s primary financial institution, and its new office is expected to attract greater investment in green energy, modern infrastructure, and digitalization.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also deepened its engagement in Uzbekistan, investing over €5 billion to date. “We must work together to simplify trade procedures and ensure that Central Asian products gain greater access to European markets. Only through joint efforts can we build a strong and resilient economic partnership,” Mirziyoyev told Euronews. "Over the past seven years, the trade turnover between Central Asian countries and the EU has quadrupled, amounting to 54 billion euros... The signing of the Samarkand Declaration will reflect the common aspiration of the parties to establish a strategic partnership and lay the foundation for deepening ties between our regions."
During the summit, Mirziyoyev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa. Discussions focused on trade, investment, green energy, and digital development, with the EU’s "Global Gateway” strategy, a counterpart to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a central topic. The initiative is seeking to enhance global infrastructure and connectivity while promoting sustainability and transparency.
“The EU and Central Asia are becoming closer partners, and this summit marks the beginning of a new phase in our cooperation,” von der Leyen stated. An Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Uzbekistan and the EU is also under negotiation.
Regional Dialogue Among Central Asian Leaders
The Summit also offered a platform for Central Asian heads of state to hold bilateral discussions. Mirziyoyev met with his counterparts from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Talks centered on increasing trade, improving border security, and advancing major infrastructure projects. A recent landmark border agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan was lauded as a breakthrough.
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan agreed to accelerate the development of the International Industrial Cooperation Center, which was ratified by the Kazakh Mazhilis in early February, while progress was also made on the planned “Shovot-Tashovuz” joint border trade zone between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
As economic ties between Central Asia and Europe deepen, recent U.S. trade tariffs may further accelerate the shift. The Trump Administration's new tariffs imposed a 10% duty on exports from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, whilst Kazakhstan faces a notably higher 27% duty.
These tariffs could disrupt regional trade flows, positioning the EU as an increasingly attractive economic partner.
Kuirektykol Deposit May Elevate Kazakhstan to Global Leader in Rare-Earth Reserves
Kazakhstani geologists have identified several promising new areas within the Kuirektykol deposit in the Karkaraly District of the Karaganda Region. If confirmed, these reserves could position Kazakhstan among the world’s leading nations in rare-earth metal resources. Exploration of the Kuirektykol site began in 2022. By November 2024, surveyors had discovered commercially viable concentrations of rare-earth elements, including cerium and lanthanides, across four prospective zones. These were initially estimated to contain total resources of 935,400 tons, including 795,800 tons of proven reserves. At the time, experts predicted that with further in-depth exploration, total reserves could potentially double. That projection is now being borne out by new findings, according to the Ministry of Industry and Construction. In a recent statement, the ministry reported that LLP Tsentrgeolszemnadzor, working within the framework of the state program for geological subsoil research, had uncovered several additional promising areas at the Kuirektykol site. These areas are believed to contain a combined one million tons of rare-earth metals. The agency also announced the preliminary evaluation of a vast new prospective area named Zhana Kazakhstan. Following recent prospecting work, geologists now estimate the total predicted resources of rare-earth metals in the Kuirektykol area to exceed 20 million tons at depths of up to 300 meters. The average concentration of rare-earth elements in the ore is approximately 700 grams per ton. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the state-owned National Mining Company Tau-Ken Samruk is preparing to begin development of the Kuirektykol deposit, a move expected to attract significant private investment in the sector. These developments come amid increasing global demand for rare-earth elements, which are essential to technologies ranging from renewable energy and electric vehicles to defense and telecommunications, and are set to be exempt from new U.S. trade tariffs. Kazakhstan's growing resource base could play a pivotal role in diversifying global supply chains and enhancing the country’s strategic economic importance.
EU-Central Asia Summit Opens New Opportunities for Kazakhstan
The first-ever summit between the European Union and the five Central Asian countries opened on April 3 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The meeting marks a milestone in regional diplomacy, as both sides seek to deepen cooperation amid growing geopolitical shifts. Kazakhstan, in particular, is entering the summit with growing international clout, thanks to its stable economic performance and balanced foreign policy approach. European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are representing the EU at the summit, which is being chaired by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. According to official sources, the summit aims to demonstrate mutual geopolitical interest and expand collaboration between Europe and Central Asia across key areas. The agenda includes strengthening multilateral ties, addressing shared security threats, enhancing economic and investment cooperation, and advancing collaboration under the EU’s Global Gateway initiative. Focus areas also include energy, climate neutrality, connectivity, and green transition, along with mobility and cultural exchange. The EU is already the region’s second-largest trading partner, accounting for 22.6% of Central Asia’s total foreign trade in 2023. It is also the largest source of foreign investment, responsible for over 40% of the region’s total inflows. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is attending the summit, following a bilateral meeting with President Mirziyoyev in Almaty on March 29. Also expected to participate are Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov. At the summit, the EU is set to unveil a substantial investment package for Central Asia, with priority sectors including transportation infrastructure, critical raw materials, energy transmission, and digitalization. European Commission President von der Leyen emphasized that Central Asia’s significant natural resources and industrial potential align with Europe’s sustainability goals. “Europe aims to create a complete value chain, not merely purchase raw materials. This is vital for generating local employment and upholding high environmental and social standards,” she said. Additional EU funding will be directed toward green energy projects and improvements to Uzbekistan’s water infrastructure. According to Tair Nigmanov, an international relations expert, the EU’s increased engagement stems from heightened geopolitical rivalry. “We are situated between major powers like Russia and China. The EU, as another global player, wants Central Asia to remain neutral and not gravitate toward any single power center,” Nigmanov told Inform.kz. “To that end, it is offering investment, trade opportunities, and political assurances.” For Kazakhstan, the summit presents a strategic platform to attract investment, reinforce its non-aligned stance, and leverage its growing geopolitical relevance in an increasingly multipolar world.
Trump’s Tariff Blitz Targets Global Imports, Kazakhstan Faces Harshest Impact in Central Asia
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced sweeping new tariffs on all goods imported into the United States, citing the need to protect American industry and jobs. Speaking at a White House press conference, Trump outlined a base tariff rate of 10% that will apply to 185 countries. However, several nations and blocs face significantly higher rates: China will see a 34% tariff, the European Union 20%, Switzerland 31%, and Israel 17%. The steepest tariffs were imposed on Vietnam (46%), Cambodia (49%), and Laos (48%). Notably absent from the list are Russia, Belarus, Mexico, Iran, Canada, and Belarus. Ukraine, however, will face the base 10% rate. Kazakhstan Hit with 27% Tariff The new U.S. duties also target Central Asian nations. According to a comparative chart published by the White House, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan will face 10% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. Meanwhile, Kazakhstani goods will be subject to a much higher rate of 27%. The White House document notes that Kazakhstani imports currently face a 54% tariff in Kazakhstan, figures that surprised local analysts, who have questioned the methodology behind the calculations. The rationale for the elevated rate on Kazakhstan remains unclear. However, the country's Ministry of Trade and Integration has initiated consultations with his U.S. counterparts to explore options for exempting certain goods. According to a preliminary analysis, many of Kazakhstan’s key exports fall under exceptions outlined in U.S. regulations. “In 2024, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the United States amounted to $4.2 billion,” the ministry stated. “Kazakhstan's primary exports to the U.S. - crude oil, uranium, silver, and ferroalloys - constitute 92% of total exports and are included in the exemption list under the U.S. President’s decree on reciprocal tariffs.” Turning Tariffs Into Opportunities Despite the steep new tariffs, some experts believe the impact on Kazakhstan will be limited. Financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov argues that Kazakhstan’s marginal role in global trade dynamics shields it from major economic fallout. “The real battle is between the U.S. and the world’s largest economies, China and the EU,” Rysmambetov wrote on his Telegram channel. “Our trade with the U.S. accounts for less than 1% of Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade. Even with a 27% tariff, the effect will be negligible.” Rysmambetov noted that Kazakhstan exported over $2 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2024, while imports totaled $1 billion, maintaining a trade surplus for the tenth consecutive year. “We’re on the tariff list, but it’s mostly symbolic,” he added, emphasizing that Kazakhstan’s exports largely consist of strategic materials. Rysmambetov also sees potential upsides: countries facing new duties may seek alternative markets, possibly offering Kazakhstan better terms on imports such as equipment, metals, vehicles, and construction materials. “Global trade tensions can open windows of opportunity, for strategic borrowing, better equipment deals, and expanded exports. But quick action is key,” he concluded. International Backlash The U.S. move drew swift condemnation from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who called the policy a “severe blow to the global economy.” “Uncertainty will increase, leading to heightened protectionism. Millions, especially in vulnerable countries, will be hit hardest by the highest tariffs. This move contradicts our international economic goals,” she wrote on X. Von der Leyen made the remarks during a visit to Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where the first EU-Central Asia summit is taking place, a meeting Brussels has described as “historic.” Observers suggest that trade and tariffs could emerge as key topics at the summit. Economists have also voiced concern. David Beckworth, a former U.S. Treasury economist, warned of possible “stagflation,” a scenario where inflation rises as growth stalls. Prolonged tariffs, he cautioned, could disrupt supply chains and raise consumer prices. Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, added that extended trade barriers could push many economies into recession. “You can throw most forecasts out the window if these tariffs remain in place,” he said. As global leaders and economists weigh the implications, one point is clear: the U.S. tariffs, and the international response they provoke, are reshaping the global trade order in profound and unpredictable ways.
How Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan Are Rewiring the Middle Corridor
Kazakhstan's acceleration of its strategic alignment with Azerbaijan signals more than bilateral convergence. It reflects a deeper structural reconfiguration of Eurasian connectivity, a reconfiguration that is not additive but integrative. As documented in multiple announcements and institutional moves across March 2025, their cooperation has crossed the threshold from parallel development to systemic coordination. This evolving dynamic illustrates the emergence of a regionally endogenous axis that, without proclaiming itself as such, is shaping the wider functional geometry of Eurasia. At the material core of this shift is the Middle Corridor — the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) — linking China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. While long viewed as a technical alternative to the Northern and Southern corridors, the Middle Corridor is now exhibiting the dynamics of what in systems theory would be called self-amplifying dynamic feedback loops. (The technical term is “autopoiesis,” literally “self-creation” of “self-production.”) In particular, institutional feedback, infrastructure reinforcement, and regulatory adaptation are all feeding into one another in ways characteristic of an autonomously emergent macroregional logic. Kazakhstan’s announcement in December 2024 of the financing of a new terminal at Alat port in Azerbaijan, on which construction began in 2025, illustrates this logic in material form. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is upgrading its Aktau port, backed by Chinese capital from Lianyungang, to triple its container throughput by 2028. This situation exemplifies the transformation of quantity into quality. Specifically, the upgrades are instantiating a network strategy that values not only volumes but also redundancy, flexibility, and strategic optionality. The new fiber-optic cable agreement signed in March 2025 further reinforces this convergence. A 380-kilometer undersea connection between Sumqayit and Aktau — part of the broader Digital Silk Road — will reduce latency between the two countries from hours to milliseconds. In system-theoretic terms, this is not merely a technical augmentation. It converts the corridor from a physical transit route into a distributed digital platform capable of supporting real-time adaptive coordination. This shift from “throughput” to “synchronization” is foundational. It also deepens the infrastructure-energy-information triad that has become characteristic of new macroregional systems. Kazakhstan’s expanded use of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, projected to carry 1.7 million tons of its oil in 2025, is not simply diversification. It is the strategic concretization of Azerbaijan’s role as a downstream node for Central Asian hydrocarbons. This is occurring alongside green transition signaling, including a modest floating solar project at Lake Boyukshor and a trilateral renewable energy agreement between Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. The repurposing of hydrocarbon corridors for hybrid energy flows is not substitution but overlay, in effect a dual-pathway system. Meanwhile, capital commitment is reinforcing the commercial aspect. A $300 million joint investment fund announced by the two countries has already designated the construction of an intermodal terminal at Alat as its inaugural project. Additional integration comes from the UAE-backed $50 million grain terminal at Kuryk, which will further diversify the system's carrying capacity by drawing agro-logistics into the corridor's functionality. In my recent article on the EU’s “new power play” in Eurasia, I explained how Central Asia is increasingly understood not as a buffer zone but as a platform for cooperation. This new strategic consciousness is evident in the March 2025 trilateral meetings between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Georgia to coordinate the Middle Corridor Multimodal Joint Venture. These are not bureaucratic exercises. They indicate a willingness to institutionalize mutual exposure as mutual benefit, transforming geographic proximity into systemic interdependence. Security coordination, although still unstated, is becoming structurally implicit. As corridor density increases, so too does vulnerability. The dangers of sabotage, cyber interference, and logistical disruption are all enhanced. The lack of overt defense cooperation does not negate its presence in planning models. Infrastructure without a security architecture is a recipe for systemic fragility, but this aspect of cooperation remains off-record out of strategic discretion. In this context, the EU’s recalibrated posture — epitomized by Kaja Kallas’s March 2025 tour of Central Asia and the upcoming EU–Central Asia Summit in Samarkand — must be interpreted as an attempt to enter this system as a non-hegemonic but indispensable partner. The EU’s Global Gateway initiative now recognizes the Middle Corridor as a backbone of Eurasian resilience. By embedding digital, energy, and regulatory integration within this initiative, the EU is engaging in a form of complex interdependence that enhances regional agency rather than co-opting it. Kazakhstan’s position within this evolving system deserves particular attention. As I set out in another recent article, specifically addressing a potential new phase in the development of Kazakhstan’s relations with the U.S., Kazakhstan is becoming a structurally stabilizing actor. It balances the overlapping power-projection interests of multiple actors: Russia, China, Europe, and, increasingly, Turkey. Its bilateral partnership with Azerbaijan epitomizes its broader strategic grammar of non-alignment without passivity and multivectorism with selective depth. Complex-systems theory teaches that when independent subsystems begin to coordinate across multiple domains (physical, informational, financial, normative), emergent properties appear. These properties cannot be reduced to any single actor’s intention or interest. They become, instead, the architecture within which intentions and interests are expressed. The Middle Corridor is approaching such a threshold. It is no longer merely a logistics route. It is a macroregional construct that channels, modulates, and refracts geopolitical agency. The future evolution of this emergent system is to be determined, but its formative logic is unmistakable. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, through a dense web of investments, agreements, and symbolic cooperation, are constructing more than a corridor. They are laying down the infrastructural and normative tracks for a region that is beginning to generate its own strategic gravitational field. By doing so, they are establishing the broader Caspian region, within Central Eurasia, as a system that is able to define and work toward its own goals.
Sunkar Podcast
Repatriating Islamic State Fighters and Families: Balancing Security and Humanity
